Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe ... - MemoFin.fr

Changes in the climate system2.2.2 Global and European temperatureRelevanceThis indicator summarises changes in averagenear‐surface temperature for the globe and for aregion covering the 39 EEA member and cooperatingcountries ( 39 ). Near-surface air temperature givesone of the clearest and most consistent signals ofglobal and regional climate change. A dense networkof stations across the globe, and particularly inEurope, provide regular monitoring of temperature,using standardised measurements, quality controland homogeneity procedures. Time series extendback for many decades or even centuries at somelocations.This indicator directly refers to the followingpolicy‐relevant questions ( 40 ):• Will the global average temperature increasestay within the EU and UNFCCC policy target of2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels?• Will the rate of global average temperatureincrease stay below the target of 0.2 °C increaseper decade?Global average annual temperature is expressedhere relative to a 'pre-industrial' period between1850 and 1899, which coincides with the beginningof widespread instrumental temperature records.During this time, anthropogenic GHGs from theindustrial revolution (between 1750 and 1850) areconsidered to have had a relatively small influenceon climate compared to natural influences. However,it should be noted that there is no rigorous scientificdefinition of the term 'pre-industrial climate' becausethe climate has also changed prior to 1850 due tointernal and forced natural variability.Key messages: 2.2.2 Global and European temperatureGlobal:• Three independent long records of global average near-surface (land and ocean) annual temperatureshow that the decade between 2002 and 2011 was 0.77 to 0.80 °C warmer than the pre-industrialaverage.• In recent decades, the rate of change in global average temperature has been close to the indicativelimit of 0.2 °C per decade.• The Arctic has warmed significantly more than the globe, and this is projected to continue into thefuture.• The best estimate for the further rise in global average temperature is between 1.8 and 4.0 °C for thelowest and highest SRES marker scenarios (IPCC SRES) that assume no additional political measures tolimit emissions. When climate model uncertainties are taken into account, the likely range increases to1.1–6.4 °C.• The EU target of limiting global average temperature increase to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels isprojected to be exceeded during the second half of this century and likely around 2050, for all six IPCCSRES emissions scenarios.Europe:• Annual average temperature across European land areas has warmed more than global averagetemperature, and slightly more than global land temperature. The average temperature for theEuropean land area for the last decade (2002–2011) is 1.3 °C above the pre-industrial level, whichmakes it the warmest decade on record.• Annual average land temperature over Europe is projected to continue increasing by more thanglobal average temperature during the 21st century. Increases in land temperature in Europe forthe SRES A1B emission scenario are projected between 1.0 and 2.5 °C by 2021–2050, and between2.5 and 4.0 °C by 2071–2100.• The largest temperature increases during the 21st century are projected over eastern and northernEurope in winter and over southern Europe in summer.( 39 ) In this section, EEA Europe is defined as the area between 35 °N to 70 °N and 25 °W to 30 °E, plus the area from 35 °N to 40 °Nand 30 °E to 45 °E (including also the Asian part of Turkey).( 40 ) The European Council proposed in its Sixth Environmental Action Programme (EC, 2002) that the global average temperatureincrease should be limited to not more than 2 °C above pre-industrial levels (about 1.3 °C above current global mean temperature).This limit was reaffirmed by the Environment Council and the European Council in 2005. Furthermore, the UNFCCC 15th Conferenceof the Parties (COP15) recognised, in the Copenhagen Accord (UNFCCC, 2009) the scientific evidence for the need to keep globalaverage temperature increase below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels (see Section 1.3). In addition, several studies have proposed tolimit the rate of anthropogenic warming to 0.2 °C per decade (WBGU, 2003; van Vliet and Leemans, 2005).56 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012