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Introductionresponsibility with the Federal states). A supplementAdaptation Action Plan is planned for 2014. It willrely on an updated comprehensive vulnerabilityassessment for Germany. An initial evaluation reporton DAS and APA is projected for the end of 2014.An indicator concept ('Establishment of an IndicatorConcept for the German Strategy on Adaptation toClimate Change') (Schönthaler et al., 2010) is currentlybeing developed and agreed upon, underpinned byvarious ongoing studies. The 2010 report contains aninitial set of indicators for adaptation at federal leveland a structure for a national report on indicators.In 2011 another report on indicators was published(Schönthaler et al., 2011). The indicators will beconsolidated in the coming years.1.5 Emissions and socio‐economicscenarios for projectionsSection 1.5.1 presents the global emissions scenariosunderlying projections of climate and climateimpact indicators in Chapters 2, 3 and 4 as wellas assessments of vulnerability to climate changein Chapter 5. Section 1.5.2 presents additionaldemographic and socio‐economic scenarios forEurope that have been used in the vulnerabilityassessments in Chapter 5.1.5.1 Emissions scenariosThe projected indicators in this report are based ona wide range of studies published in peer-reviewedacademic papers and reports of internationalorganisations. Many of these refer to or use generallyavailable emissions and/or climate scenarios, butthere is inevitably variation in the choice and use ofemissions scenarios and climate model runs for theassessments of individual indicators.Most climate projections use the storylines and theassociated emissions scenarios published by theIPCC in 2000 in the Special Report on EmissionsScenarios (SRES) (Nakicenovic and Swart, 2000).These scenarios, often called the SRES scenarios,represent the outcome of different assumptionsabout the future course of economic development,demography and technological change. The SRESscenarios are 'baseline' (or 'reference') scenarios,which means that they do not take into accountspecific agreements or policy measures aimed atlimiting the emission of GHG emissions (e.g. theKyoto Protocol to the UNFCCC). The SRES emissionsscenarios are organised into families, which containscenarios that are based on similar assumptionsregarding demographic, economic and technologicaldevelopment. The six families of emissions scenariosdiscussed in the IPCC's Third Assessment Report(TAR) and Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) are A1FI('fossil intensive'), A1B ('base'), A1T ('technology'), A2,B1 and B2 (see Box 1.2).Box 1.2The IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)A1. The A1 scenario family describes a future world of very rapid economic growth, global population that peaksin the mid-century and declines thereafter, and a rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies.Major underlying themes are convergence among regions, capacity building, and increased cultural andsocial interactions, with a substantial reduction in regional differences in per capita income. The A1 familydevelops into three groups that describe alternative directions of technological change in the energysystem, distinguished by their technological emphasis: fossil-intensive (A1FI), non‐fossil energy sources(A1T), or a balance across all sources (A1B) (where balanced is defined as not relying too heavily on oneparticular source, on the assumption that similar improvement rates apply to all energy-supply and end-usetechnologies).A2. The A2 family describes a very heterogeneous world. The underlying theme is self-reliance and preservation oflocal identities. Fertility patterns across regions converge very slowly, which results in continuously increasingpopulation. Economic development is primarily regionally oriented and per capita economic growth andtechnological change more fragmented and slower than in other scenarios.B1. The B1 family describes a convergent world with the same global population, which peaks in the mid‐centuryand declines thereafter, as in A1, but with rapid change in economic structures toward a service andinformation economy, with reductions in material intensity and the introduction of clean and resource-efficienttechnologies. The emphasis is on global solutions to economic, social and environmental sustainability,including improved equity, but without additional climate initiatives.B2. The B2 family describes a world in which the emphasis is on local solutions to economic, social andenvironmental sustainability. It is a world with continuously increasing global population, at a rate lower thanA2, intermediate levels of economic development, and less rapid and more diverse technological change thanin B1 and A1. While these scenarios are also oriented towards environmental protection and social equity, theyfocus on local and regional levels.Source: Nakicenovic and Swart, 2000.38 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012
IntroductionThe next generation of scenarios to supportclimate change research and assessments arecalled Representative Concentration Pathways(RCPs). These scenarios prescribe trajectories forthe concentrations (rather than the emissions) ofGHGs and therefore are not simply updates of theSRES emissions scenarios (van Vuuren et al., 2011).The RCPs provide a consistent set of greenhouseconcentration trajectories that are intended to serveas input for climate modelling, pattern scaling andatmospheric chemistry modelling. They are namedfrom RCP 2.6 to RCP 8.5 according to their radiativeforcing level in the year 2100. Unlike SRES, theRCPs cover the full range of stabilisation, mitigationand baseline emissions scenarios available in thescientific literature and thus facilitate the mappingof all plausible climate evolutionsTable 1.3 explains which emissions scenariosand climate models were used in the projectionsof indicators presented in this report. Somevulnerability and risk assessments in Chapter 5Table 1.3 Emissions scenarios and climate models used in projections ( a )Section Indicator Emissionsscenario(s)2.2.2 Global and EuropeantemperatureGlobal:A1B, A2, B1European:A1BClimate model(s) ( b )GCM ensembleRCM ensemble based on 5 GCMsTimeperiod(s) ( c )21st century2030s, 2080s2.2.3 Temperature extremes A1B 6 RCM ensemble 2030s, 2080s2.2.4 Mean precipitation A1B RCM ensemble based on 5 GCMs 2080s2.2.5 Precipitation extremes Single RCM nested in 6 GCMs 2080s2.2.6 Storms A1B 9 GCM and 11 RCM ensemble 2080s2.3.2 Snow cover A1B 6 RCM ensemble 2050s2.3.4 Glaciers A1B 10 GCM ensemble 21st century3.2.2 Global and Europeansea-level riseGlobal:Various scenariosGlobal:Various sourcesGlobal:21003.3.2 River flow A1B 12 RCM ensemble 2050s3.3.3 River floods A1B 12 RCM ensemble 2050s3.3.4 River flow drought A1B 12 RCM ensemble 2050s3.4.4 Distribution of plant species S550E stabilisation andIMAGE baseline scenario3.4.5 Distribution and abundance ofanimal speciesLevinsky et al.:A2, B1ALARM project:A2HadCM2 2100UnspecifiedHadCM32080s2030s, 2060s3.4.6 Species interactions A2 HadCM3 2060s4.1.3 Agrophenology A1B RACMO, HadRCM3 2031-20504.1.4 Water-limited cropproductivityA1BA1BA1BRACMO, HadRCM312 RCM ensembleECHAM5, HadCM32031–20502050s2030s4.1.5 Water requirement A1B HIRHAM (DMI) RCM 2080s4.2.3 Forest fires A1B RACMO2 driven by ECHAM5 2080sThe information below is not presented in indicator format in this report4.7.2 Tourism climatic index A2 5 RCM ensemble (PRUDENCE) 2080s5.2 River flooding, water scarcity A2, B2 GCM/RCM ensemble 2050sand droughts5.3 Coastal flooding A2, B1 Uniform sea-level rise 21005.4 Integrated vulnerabilityassessmentA1B CCLM RCM 2080sNote:( a ) The table only lists quantitative projections of future changes in the form of graphs or maps. National or subnationalprojections shown in numbered text boxes are not considered.( b ) Unless otherwise specified, RCM ensemble projections are derived from the ENSEMBLES FP6 project(http://www.ensembles-eu.org).( c ) If a decade is specified by an ending 's', this stands for the 30-year period centred on this decade (e.g. '2030s' refer to2021–2050 and '2080s' to 2071–2100).Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 201239
Page 3 and 4: EEA Report No 12/2012Climate change
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Climate impacts on environmental sy
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Vulnerability to climate changein f
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Vulnerability to climate change5.3
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Vulnerability to climate changeMap
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Vulnerability to climate changeasse
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Vulnerability to climate change5.3.
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Vulnerability to climate changeBox
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Vulnerability to climate changeMap
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Vulnerability to climate change5.5
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Vulnerability to climate changeFigu
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Vulnerability to climate changeFina
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Vulnerability to climate changefact
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Indicator and data needsA key polic
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Indicator and data needsWEI and res
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Indicator and data needsDirectorate
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Indicator and data needs6.2.2 Globa
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Abbreviations and acronyms7 Abbrevi
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Abbreviations and acronymsAcronym o
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Abbreviations and acronymsAcronym o
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Abbreviations and acronymsProject a
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Referenceset al. (2010) DEMIFER: De
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ReferencesNovember to 11 December 2
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ReferencesEEA (2011a) Mapping the i
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References19 December 2009. UNFCCC,
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ReferencesIsaksen, K., Sollid, J. L
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Referencesfür Hydrologie und Limno
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Referencescirculation models. Journ
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Referencesin Geophysics 32(4-5), 58
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ReferencesVermeer, M. and Rahmstorf
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ReferencesDevelopment. http://ec.eu
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ReferencesApplied Climatology 74, 4
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ReferencesEnvironmental Health Pers
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Referencestemperature. Epidemiology
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ReferencesEEA (2012) Annual Europea
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ReferencesChapter 5:Vulnerability t
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ReferencesSchool. http://www.jbs.ca
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European Environment AgencyClimate
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