Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe ... - MemoFin.fr

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Introduction1.2 Scope and link to other EU and EEAactivities and products1.2.1 ScopeThis report provides comprehensive indicator‐basedinformation covering all main categories of climateimpacts (with some exceptions as described abovein Section 1.1). Where feasible, indicators cover allof Europe (the 32 member countries of the EEA).However, for some indicator categories for whichno Europe-wide data were available (e.g. forecosystem‐related indicators), indicators havebeen selected and presented for fewer countries.Furthermore, some indicators have only limitedgeographical relevance (e.g. glaciers) and in suchcases the aim was for full coverage of the relevantcountries.Key terms used to assess and communicate theeffects of climate change emphasise adverseimpacts (e.g. vulnerability and risk; see Section 1.7),which may wrongly suggest that all impactsare adverse, while in fact some impacts maybe beneficial. The emphasis in this report onadverse impacts has two reasons. Firstly, andmost importantly, adverse and beneficial impactshave rather different policy implications. Adverseimpacts generally call for anticipatory, plannedadaptation (e.g. increasing risk management effortsin order to maintain current risk levels underprojected climate change), whereas the benefits ofclimate change can often be brought in by reactiveadaptation (e.g. reducing risk management effortsthat turn out to be no longer needed after observingclimate change). Secondly, on balance most climatechange impacts presented in this report areprojected to be adverse. However, the level of theimpacts depends on the time horizon and scenario.1.2.2 Data sourcesThere is no reporting of climate change impacts andvulnerability data and information from EU MemberStates to the European Commission or EEA. Someinformation is available in national communicationsto the United Nations Framework Convention on ClimateChange (UNFCCC), but this cannot be used forpreparing comparable quantitative indicators acrossEEA member countries (see also Section 1.3.1).Thus the indicators presented in this report arebased on data from in situ and satellite monitoringprogrammes, from national and EU researchprogrammes and from a few global databases.Various EU research programmes (e.g. Sixth andSeventh Framework Programmes (FP6 and FP7,respectively) ( 5 )) have developed knowledgeover the past years and information from theseprogrammes has been included to the extent feasiblein this report. However, there are still many gapsin the data and coverage across Europe and overtime. Chapter 6 gives an overview of main data gapsand needs. Section 7.2 provides an (incomplete)overview of those research projects that havecontributed significantly to the indicators presentedin this report.1.2.3 Links to other reportsThe report builds on various previous EEA reports,including the 'State of the Environment and Outlookreport 2010' and its thematic assessments on climatechange and on impacts, vulnerability and adaptation(EEA, 2010a; b), a technical report on natural (andtechnological) disasters (EEA, 2011) and variousreports from the JRC, WHO/Europe and ECDC.Furthermore, this report is consistent with thefollowing EEA reports published in 2012:• Urban adaptation to climate change in Europe(EEA, 2012);• 'Water resources in Europe in the context ofvulnerability' (to be published autumn 2012);• 'State of coasts in Europe' (in preparation).The report furthermore aims to achieve consistency,to the extent feasible, with the IntergovernmentalPanel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Reporton 'Managing the Risks of Extreme Events andDisasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation(SREX)' (IPCC, 2012), the IPCC Fifth AssessmentReport (AR5) (see Box 1.1), a 'PESETA II' reportfrom JRC (which however was not yet publishedby autumn 2012), a follow-up from 'PESETA I'(Projection of Economic impacts of climate changein Sectors of the European Union based onboTtom‐up Analysis) (Ciscar et al., 2009, 2011), anda forthcoming WHO/Europe report on 'The healtheffects of climate change in the European Union:evidence for action' ( 6 ).( 5 ) See http://ec.europa.eu/research/environment/index_en.cfm?pg=climate.( 6 ) See http://ec.europa.eu/health/indicators/other_indicators/environment/index_en.htm.32 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012
IntroductionBox 1.1The IPCC Fifth Assessment ReportThe IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC, 2007a; b; c; d) was published in 2007. The Intergovernmental Panelon Climate Change (IPCC) is currently producing its Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), which consists of four volumesto be published in 2013 and 2014 ( 7 ).The IPCC Working Group I (The Physical Science Basis) will publish its assessment in September 2013, while theIPCC Working Group II (Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability) will publish its assessment in March 2014. Thereport contains, amongst others, chapters addressing regions and thus in particular the WGII report's chapter onEurope is relevant.Regarding the Arctic several major assessmentreports on the impacts of climate change and onbiodiversity have been published over the pastyears. These include the report 'Snow, Water, Iceand Permafrost in the Arctic' (AMAP, 2011) and thereport 'Arctic Biodiversity Assessment — ArcticBiodiversity Trends 2010: Selected indicators ofchange' (Barry et al., 2010). Therefore, this EEAreport does not provide a comprehensive assessmentof climate change impacts in the Arctic and refersto these existing assessments, although the reportdoes contain a few relevant indicators (e.g. on Arcticsea ice).1.2.4 Report on adaptation in EuropeIn parallel to this report, a second report ispublished by EEA, covering adaptation in Europe.Adaptation is understood as anticipating theadverse effects of climate change and takingappropriate action to prevent or minimise thedamage they can cause. This second report presentsthe emerging European, national and subnationaladaptation actions across Europe. The report willinclude case studies of implemented adaptationmeasures to illustrate the size of the adaptationchallenge, provide examples of successful actionsat various scales and lessons to be learned onadaptation actions at the European level. It alsoincludes a brief comparison on transnational andnational adaptation strategies and actions in Europe.1.2.5 European Climate Adaptation Platform(Climate-ADAPT)The information in the two EEA reports on climatechange, impacts and vulnerability and on adaptationis supported by information in Climate-ADAPT ( 8 ),which is a publicly accessible, web-based platform,designed to support policymakers at EU, national,regional and local levels in the development ofclimate change adaptation measures and policies.Climate-ADAPT is hosted and managed by the EEA,in collaboration with the European Commission.The website will be continuously updated withnew information, for example from EU researchprojects, transnational projects, and national andlocal authorities. Climate-ADAPT is related to otherrelevant European information systems includingthe Biodiversity Information System for Europe ( 9 ),the Water Information System for Europe ( 10 ) and theland use data centre ( 11 ).1.3 Background and policy framework1.3.1 Global climate change mitigation andadaptation policiesThe threat of climate change is being addressedglobally by the UNFCCC. Its long-term objectiveis 'to stabilise atmospheric greenhouse gasconcentrations at a level that would preventdangerous anthropogenic interference with theclimate system. Such a level should be achievedwithin a time frame sufficient to allow ecosystemsto adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure thatfood production is not threatened and to enableeconomic development to proceed in a sustainablemanner.'The UNFCCC has agreed, through the CopenhagenAccord of December 2009, to limit the global meantemperature increase since pre-industrial times ( 12 )to less than 2 °C (the '2 °C target'). The 2 °C targetwill be reviewed in 2015, based on new scientificinsights, to consider a possible goal of limiting the( 7 ) See http://www.ipcc.ch/activities/activities.shtml.( 8 ) See http://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu.( 9 ) See http://biodiversity.europa.eu.( 10 ) See http://water.europa.eu.( 11 ) See http://www.eea.europa.eu/highlights/themes/landuse/dc.( 12 ) Pre-industrial being defined as 1850–1899.Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 201233
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Climate impacts on environmental sy
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Vulnerability to climate changein f
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Vulnerability to climate changeMap
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Indicator and data needsA key polic
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Indicator and data needsWEI and res
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Indicator and data needsDirectorate
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Indicator and data needs6.2.2 Globa
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Abbreviations and acronyms7 Abbrevi
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Abbreviations and acronymsAcronym o
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Abbreviations and acronymsProject a
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Referenceset al. (2010) DEMIFER: De
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ReferencesNovember to 11 December 2
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ReferencesEEA (2011a) Mapping the i
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References19 December 2009. UNFCCC,
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ReferencesIsaksen, K., Sollid, J. L
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Referencesfür Hydrologie und Limno
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Referencescirculation models. Journ
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Referencesin Geophysics 32(4-5), 58
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ReferencesVermeer, M. and Rahmstorf
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ReferencesDevelopment. http://ec.eu
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ReferencesMooij, W. M., Hulsmann, S
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ReferencesPeninsula (1952-2004). Ec
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ReferencesApplied Climatology 74, 4
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ReferencesEnvironmental Health Pers
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Referencestemperature. Epidemiology
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ReferencesSchool. http://www.jbs.ca
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European Environment AgencyClimate
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