ReferencesEEA (2010c) The <strong>Europe</strong>an environment — State<strong>and</strong> outlook 2010: Thematic assessment — L<strong>and</strong> use.<strong>Europe</strong>an Environment Agency, Copenhagen.http://www.eea.europa.eu/soer/europe/urbanenvironment.EEA (2011) Mapp<strong>in</strong>g the <strong>impacts</strong> of natural hazards<strong>and</strong> technological accidents <strong>in</strong> <strong>Europe</strong> (EEA Technicalreport No 13/2010). <strong>Europe</strong>an EnvironmentAgency, Copenhagen. http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/mapp<strong>in</strong>g-the-<strong>impacts</strong>-of-natural.EEA (2012) Urban adaptation to climate <strong>change</strong> <strong>in</strong><strong>Europe</strong> — Challenges <strong>and</strong> opportunities for citiestogether with supportive national <strong>and</strong> <strong>Europe</strong>an policies(EEA Report No 2/2012). <strong>Europe</strong>an EnvironmentAgency, Copenhagen. http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/urban-adaptation-to-climate-<strong>change</strong>.ESPON <strong>Climate</strong> (2011) <strong>Climate</strong> Change <strong>and</strong> TerritorialEffects on Regions <strong>and</strong> Local Economies (ScientificReport). Institute of Spatial Plann<strong>in</strong>g (IRPUD), TUDortmund University. http://www.espon.eu/ma<strong>in</strong>/Menu_Projects/Menu_AppliedResearch/climate.html.Eurostat (2004) Urban Audit database. http://www.urbanaudit.org/ (accessed 23 October 2012).Eurostat (2008) Population projections 2008–2060:From 2015, deaths projected to outnumber births <strong>in</strong> theEU-27 — Almost three times as many people aged 80 ormore <strong>in</strong> 2060 (STAT/08/119). Eurostat, Luxembourg.http://europa.eu/rapid/pressReleasesAction.do?reference=STAT/08/119.Evans, E., Ashley, R., Hall, J., Penn<strong>in</strong>g-Roswell,E., Sayers, P., Thorne, C. <strong>and</strong> Watk<strong>in</strong>son, A. (2004)Foresight, Future flood<strong>in</strong>g. Scientific summary: Volume II— Manag<strong>in</strong>g future risks. Flood <strong>and</strong> Coastal DefenceProject, Office of Science <strong>and</strong> Technology, London.http://www.bis.gov.uk/foresight/our-work/projects/published-projects/flood-<strong>and</strong>-coastal-defence/project-outputs/volume-2.Feyen, L., Dankers, R., Bódis, K., Salamon, P. <strong>and</strong>Barredo, J. I. (2011) Fluvial flood risk <strong>in</strong> <strong>Europe</strong> <strong>in</strong>present <strong>and</strong> future climates. Climatic Change 112(1),47–62. doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0339-7.Fischer, E. <strong>and</strong> Schär, C. (2010) Consistentgeographical patterns of <strong>change</strong>s <strong>in</strong> high-impact<strong>Europe</strong>an heatwaves. Nature Geoscience 3, 398–403.doi:10.1038/ngeo866.Flörke, M., Wimmer, F., Cornelius, L., Vidaurre, R.,Troltzsch, J., Dworak, T. <strong>and</strong> Mar<strong>in</strong>ova, N. (2011)<strong>Climate</strong> Adaptation — modell<strong>in</strong>g water scenarios <strong>and</strong>sectoral <strong>impacts</strong>. Center for Environmental SystemsResearch (CERS) <strong>in</strong> cooperation with Ecologic,Alterra <strong>and</strong> CMCC. http://circa.europa.eu/Public/irc/env/wfd/library?l=/<strong>fr</strong>amework_directive/climate_adaptation/climwatadapt_report.Flörke, M., Wimmer, F., Laaser, C., Vidaurre, R.,Tröltzsch, J., Dworak, T., Mar<strong>in</strong>ova, N., Jaspers,F., Ludwig, F., Swart, R., Giupponi, C., Bosello, F.<strong>and</strong> Mysiak, J. (2011) <strong>Climate</strong> Adaptation – modell<strong>in</strong>gwater scenarios <strong>and</strong> sectoral <strong>impacts</strong>. F<strong>in</strong>al Report(Contract N° DG ENV.D.2/SER/2009/0034). Centerfor Environmental Systems Research, Universityof Kassel, Kassel, Germany. http://circa.europa.eu/Public/irc/env/wfd/library?l=/<strong>fr</strong>amework_directive/climate_adaptation/climwatadapt_report.Greiv<strong>in</strong>g, S., Flex, F., L<strong>in</strong>dner, C., J. Lückenkötter, A.Holsten, J. Kropp, S. Juhola, P. Niemi, L. Peltonen, J.Vehmas, S. Davoudi, E. Tranos, P. Schmidt-Thomé,J. Kle<strong>in</strong>, T. Tarva<strong>in</strong>en, et al. (2011) ESPON <strong>Climate</strong>— <strong>Climate</strong> Change <strong>and</strong> Territorial Effects on Regions<strong>and</strong> Local Economies. (Applied Research ProjectNo. 2013/1/4). ESPON. http://www.espon.eu/export/sites/default/Documents/Projects/AppliedResearch/CLIMATE/<strong>in</strong>ceptionreport_f<strong>in</strong>al.pdf.GWI (2007) Between a rock <strong>and</strong> a hard place– Ankara's water future <strong>in</strong> crisis. Global WaterIntelligence 8(8). http://www.globalwater<strong>in</strong>tel.com/archive/8/8/general/between-a-rock-<strong>and</strong>-a-hardplace-ankaras-water-future-<strong>in</strong>-crisis.html.H<strong>in</strong>kel, J. <strong>and</strong> Kle<strong>in</strong>, R. (2009) The DINAS-COASTproject: Develop<strong>in</strong>g a tool for the dynamic <strong>and</strong><strong>in</strong>teractive assessment of coastal <strong>vulnerability</strong>. GlobalEnvironmental Change 19(3), 384–395.H<strong>in</strong>kel, J., Nicholls, R. J., Vafeidis, A. T., Tol, R.S. J. <strong>and</strong> Avagianou, T. (2010) Assess<strong>in</strong>g risk of<strong>and</strong> adaptation to sea-level rise <strong>in</strong> the <strong>Europe</strong>anUnion: an application of DIVA. Mitigation <strong>and</strong>Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 15(7), 703–719.doi:10.1007/s11027-010-9237-y.Holl<strong>and</strong>, M., Heyes, M., Rafaj, C., Schopp, P.,Hunt, A. <strong>and</strong> Watkis, P. (2011) The Reduction <strong>in</strong> AirQuality Impacts <strong>and</strong> Associated Economic Benefits ofMitigation Policy. Summary of Results <strong>fr</strong>om the ECRTD <strong>Climate</strong>Cost Project (Technical Policy Brief<strong>in</strong>gNote 6: Ancillary Air Quality Benefits). StockholmEnvironment Institute, Stockholm, Sweden.Hope, C. (2011) The PAGE09 Integrated AssessmentModel: A Technical Description. Work<strong>in</strong>g Paper Series4/2011. Cambridge University Judge Bus<strong>in</strong>ess298 <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>, <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>vulnerability</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>Europe</strong> 2012
ReferencesSchool. http://www.jbs.cam.ac.uk/research/work<strong>in</strong>g_papers/2011/wp1104.pdf.Hunt, A. (2008) Inform<strong>in</strong>g adaptation to climate<strong>change</strong> <strong>in</strong> the UK: some sector <strong>impacts</strong>. TheIntegrated Assessment Journal 8(1), 41–71.IPCC (2012) Manag<strong>in</strong>g the Risks of Extreme Events<strong>and</strong> Disasters to Advance <strong>Climate</strong> Change Adaptation.Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on <strong>Climate</strong>Change. (C. B. Field, V. Barros, T. F. Stocker <strong>and</strong> D.Q<strong>in</strong>, eds.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.http://ipcc-wg2.gov/SREX/report/.Kovats, R. S., Lloyd, S., Hunt, A. <strong>and</strong> Watkiss, P.(2011) The Impacts <strong>and</strong> Economic Costs on Health<strong>in</strong> <strong>Europe</strong> <strong>and</strong> the Costs <strong>and</strong> Benefits of Adaptation.Results of the EC RTD <strong>Climate</strong>Cost Project. In:The <strong>Climate</strong>Cost Project. F<strong>in</strong>al Report. Volume 1:<strong>Europe</strong> (P. Watkiss, ed.). Stockholm EnvironmentInstitute, Sweden. http://www.climatecost.cc/reports<strong>and</strong>publications.html.Kundzewicz, Z. W., Lugeri, N., Dankers, R.,Hirabayashi, Y., Döll, P., Pińskwar, I., Dysarz, T.,Hochra<strong>in</strong>er, S. <strong>and</strong> Matczak, P. (2010) Assess<strong>in</strong>griver flood risk <strong>and</strong> adaptation <strong>in</strong> <strong>Europe</strong> —review of projections for the future. Mitigation <strong>and</strong>Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 15(7), 641–656.doi:10.1007/s11027-010-9213-6.Lautenschlager, M., Keuler, K., Wunram, C., Keup-Thiel, E., Schubert, M., Will, A., Rockel, B. <strong>and</strong>Boehm, U. (2008) <strong>Climate</strong> simulation with CLM,climate of the 20th century, data stream 3: <strong>Europe</strong>anregion MPI-M/MaD. World Data Center for <strong>Climate</strong>.Lowe, J. A., Hewitt, C. D., van Vuuren, D. P., Johns,T. C., Stehfest, E., Royer, J.-F. <strong>and</strong> van der L<strong>in</strong>den, P.J. (2009) New study for climate model<strong>in</strong>g, analyses,<strong>and</strong> scenarios. Eos, Transactions American GeophysicalUnion 90(21), 181–182. doi:10.1029/2009EO210001.Mima, S., Criqui, P. <strong>and</strong> Watkiss, P. (2012) TheImpacts <strong>and</strong> Economic Costs of <strong>Climate</strong> Change onEnergy <strong>in</strong> the <strong>Europe</strong>an Union (Technical PolicyBrief<strong>in</strong>g Note 4). Stockholm Environment Institute,Stockholm. http://www.climatecost.cc/images/Policy_Brief_6_<strong>Climate</strong>cost_Energy_Summary_Results_vs_5_Draft_F<strong>in</strong>al.pdf.NatCatSERVICE (2012) Munich RE NatCatSERVICE.NATHAN Risk Suite. http://www.munichre.com/en/re<strong>in</strong>surance/bus<strong>in</strong>ess/non‐life/georisks/nathan/default.aspx.PLUREL (2011) Peri-urbanisation <strong>in</strong> <strong>Europe</strong>: Towards<strong>Europe</strong>an policies to susta<strong>in</strong> urban-rural futures.Synthesis Report. University of Copenhagen,Denmark. http://www.plurel.net/images/Peri_Urbanisation_<strong>in</strong>_<strong>Europe</strong>_pr<strong>in</strong>tversion.pdf.Rahmstorf, S. (2007) A Semi-Empirical Approach toProject<strong>in</strong>g Future Sea-Level Rise. Science 315(5810),368–370. doi:10.1126/science.1135456.Richards, J. A. <strong>and</strong> Nicholls, R. J. (2009) Impacts ofclimate <strong>change</strong> <strong>in</strong> coastal systems <strong>in</strong> <strong>Europe</strong>. PESETA-Coastal Systems study (Scientific <strong>and</strong> TechnicalReports). <strong>Europe</strong>an Commission, Jo<strong>in</strong>t ResearchCentre, Institute for Prospective TechnologicalStudies. http://ftp.jrc.es/EURdoc/JRC55390.pdf.Römisch, R. (2009) Regional challenges <strong>in</strong> theperspective of 2020 — Regional disparities <strong>and</strong>future challenges. Background paper on: <strong>Climate</strong>Change (Contract No. 2008.CE.16.AT.060/2008.CE.16.C.AT.022). Ismeri Europa. http://ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/sources/docgener/studies/pdf/challenges2020/regional_challenges_climate_<strong>change</strong>.pdf.Schumacher, U. (2005) Historic maps promote recentflood risk research — the case of the upper Elbe river.Presented at the XXII. International CartographicConference 'Mapp<strong>in</strong>g Approaches <strong>in</strong>to a Chang<strong>in</strong>gWorld', Leibniz Institute of Ecological <strong>and</strong> RegionalDevleopment, Dresden. http://map.ioer.de/website/hochw/Schumacher_ICC_2005.pdf.TEEB (2010) Ma<strong>in</strong>stream<strong>in</strong>g the economics ofnature: A synthesis of the approach, conclusions<strong>and</strong> recommendations of TEEB. The Economicsof Ecosystems <strong>and</strong> Biodiversity. http://us-cdn.creamermedia.co.za/assets/articles/attachments/30310_teeb_synthreport_09_2010_onl<strong>in</strong>e.pdf.Tigrek, S. <strong>and</strong> Kibaroglu, A. (2011) Strategic Roleof Water Resources for Turkey. In: Turkey's WaterPolicy (A. Kramer, A. Kibaroglu <strong>and</strong> W. Scheumann,eds.), 27–42. Spr<strong>in</strong>ger Berl<strong>in</strong> Heidelberg, Berl<strong>in</strong>,Heidelberg. http://www.spr<strong>in</strong>gerl<strong>in</strong>k.com/<strong>in</strong>dex/10.1007/978-3-642-19636-2_2.UN (2012) World Urbanization Prospects, the 2011Revision. Population Division of the Department ofEconomic <strong>and</strong> Social Affairs of the United Nations.http://esa.un.org/unpd/wup/<strong>in</strong>dex.htm.Vafeidis, A. T., Nicholls, R. J., McFadden, L., Tol,R. S. J., H<strong>in</strong>kel, J., Spencer, T., Grashoff, P. S., Boot,G. <strong>and</strong> Kle<strong>in</strong>, R. J. T. (2008) A new global coastal<strong>Climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>, <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>vulnerability</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>Europe</strong> 2012299
- Page 3 and 4:
EEA Report No 12/2012Climate change
- Page 5:
ContentsContentsAcknowledgements...
- Page 10 and 11:
ContentsMap 4.1 Change in the numbe
- Page 12 and 13:
ContentsList of boxesBox 1.1 The IP
- Page 14 and 15:
AcknowledgementsAblain, Gilles Larn
- Page 16:
AcknowledgementsComments from the E
- Page 20:
Executive summaryThe causes of the
- Page 23:
Technical summaryTable TS.1 Observe
- Page 26 and 27:
Technical summaryTable TS.1 Observe
- Page 28 and 29:
Technical summaryMountain areasThe
- Page 30:
Technical summaryTable TS.2 Key obs
- Page 33 and 34:
IntroductionIt should be noted that
- Page 35 and 36:
IntroductionBox 1.1The IPCC Fifth A
- Page 37 and 38:
Introduction1. develop and improve
- Page 39 and 40:
Introduction1.4.3 Overview of main
- Page 41 and 42:
IntroductionThe next generation of
- Page 44 and 45:
Introductionimmigration will be low
- Page 46 and 47:
Introduction7. projection of a clim
- Page 49 and 50:
IntroductionThe term risk is also i
- Page 51 and 52:
Changes in the climate system2 Chan
- Page 53 and 54:
Changes in the climate systemdammin
- Page 55 and 56:
Changes in the climate system2.1.4
- Page 57 and 58:
Changes in the climate systemSelect
- Page 59 and 60:
Changes in the climate systemPast t
- Page 61 and 62:
Changes in the climate systemEurope
- Page 63 and 64:
Changes in the climate systemSevera
- Page 65 and 66:
Changes in the climate systemMap 2.
- Page 67 and 68:
Changes in the climate systemMap 2.
- Page 69 and 70:
Changes in the climate systemMap 2.
- Page 71 and 72:
Changes in the climate systemMap 2.
- Page 73 and 74:
Changes in the climate systemclosel
- Page 75 and 76:
Changes in the climate system2.3 Cr
- Page 77 and 78:
Changes in the climate systemPast t
- Page 79 and 80:
Changes in the climate systemof up
- Page 81 and 82:
Changes in the climate systemFigure
- Page 83 and 84:
Changes in the climate systemFigure
- Page 85 and 86:
Changes in the climate system2.3.5
- Page 87 and 88:
Changes in the climate systemBox 2.
- Page 89 and 90:
Changes in the climate systemFigure
- Page 91 and 92:
Climate impacts on environmental sy
- Page 93 and 94:
Climate impacts on environmental sy
- Page 95 and 96:
Climate impacts on environmental sy
- Page 97 and 98:
Climate impacts on environmental sy
- Page 99 and 100:
Climate impacts on environmental sy
- Page 101 and 102:
Climate impacts on environmental sy
- Page 103 and 104:
Climate impacts on environmental sy
- Page 105:
Climate impacts on environmental sy
- Page 108 and 109:
Climate impacts on environmental sy
- Page 110 and 111:
Climate impacts on environmental sy
- Page 112 and 113:
Climate impacts on environmental sy
- Page 114 and 115:
Climate impacts on environmental sy
- Page 116 and 117:
Climate impacts on environmental sy
- Page 118 and 119:
Climate impacts on environmental sy
- Page 120:
Climate impacts on environmental sy
- Page 123 and 124:
Climate impacts on environmental sy
- Page 125 and 126:
Climate impacts on environmental sy
- Page 127 and 128:
Climate impacts on environmental sy
- Page 129 and 130:
Climate impacts on environmental sy
- Page 131 and 132:
Climate impacts on environmental sy
- Page 133 and 134:
Climate impacts on environmental sy
- Page 135 and 136:
Climate impacts on environmental sy
- Page 137 and 138:
Climate impacts on environmental sy
- Page 139:
Climate impacts on environmental sy
- Page 142 and 143:
Climate impacts on environmental sy
- Page 144 and 145:
Climate impacts on environmental sy
- Page 146 and 147:
Climate impacts on environmental sy
- Page 148 and 149:
Climate impacts on environmental sy
- Page 150 and 151:
Climate impacts on environmental sy
- Page 152 and 153:
Climate impacts on environmental sy
- Page 154 and 155:
Climate impacts on environmental sy
- Page 156 and 157:
Climate impacts on environmental sy
- Page 158 and 159:
Climate impacts on environmental sy
- Page 160 and 161:
Climate impacts on socio-economic s
- Page 162 and 163:
Climate impacts on socio-economic s
- Page 164 and 165:
Climate impacts on socio-economic s
- Page 166 and 167:
Climate impacts on socio-economic s
- Page 168 and 169:
Climate impacts on socio-economic s
- Page 170 and 171:
Climate impacts on socio-economic s
- Page 172 and 173:
Climate impacts on socio-economic s
- Page 174 and 175:
Climate impacts on socio-economic s
- Page 176 and 177:
Climate impacts on socio-economic s
- Page 178 and 179:
Climate impacts on socio-economic s
- Page 180 and 181:
Climate impacts on socio-economic s
- Page 182 and 183:
Climate impacts on socio-economic s
- Page 184 and 185:
Climate impacts on socio-economic s
- Page 186 and 187:
Climate impacts on socio-economic s
- Page 188 and 189:
Climate impacts on socio-economic s
- Page 190 and 191:
Climate impacts on socio-economic s
- Page 192 and 193:
Climate impacts on socio-economic s
- Page 194 and 195:
Climate impacts on socio-economic s
- Page 196 and 197:
Climate impacts on socio-economic s
- Page 198 and 199:
Climate impacts on socio-economic s
- Page 200 and 201:
Climate impacts on socio-economic s
- Page 202 and 203:
Climate impacts on socio-economic s
- Page 204 and 205:
Climate impacts on socio-economic s
- Page 206 and 207:
Climate impacts on socio-economic s
- Page 208 and 209:
Climate impacts on socio-economic s
- Page 210 and 211:
Climate impacts on socio-economic s
- Page 212 and 213:
Climate impacts on socio-economic s
- Page 214 and 215:
Climate impacts on socio-economic s
- Page 216 and 217:
Vulnerability to climate changein f
- Page 218 and 219:
Vulnerability to climate change5.3
- Page 220 and 221:
Vulnerability to climate changeMap
- Page 222 and 223:
Vulnerability to climate changeasse
- Page 224 and 225:
Vulnerability to climate change5.3.
- Page 226 and 227:
Vulnerability to climate changeBox
- Page 228 and 229:
Vulnerability to climate changeMap
- Page 230 and 231:
Vulnerability to climate change5.5
- Page 232 and 233:
Vulnerability to climate changeFigu
- Page 234 and 235:
Vulnerability to climate changeFigu
- Page 236 and 237:
Vulnerability to climate changeFina
- Page 238 and 239:
Vulnerability to climate changefact
- Page 240 and 241:
Indicator and data needsA key polic
- Page 242 and 243:
Indicator and data needsWEI and res
- Page 244 and 245:
Indicator and data needsDirectorate
- Page 246 and 247:
Indicator and data needs6.2.2 Globa
- Page 248 and 249:
Abbreviations and acronyms7 Abbrevi
- Page 250 and 251: Abbreviations and acronymsAcronym o
- Page 252 and 253: Abbreviations and acronymsAcronym o
- Page 254 and 255: Abbreviations and acronymsProject a
- Page 256 and 257: Referenceset al. (2010) DEMIFER: De
- Page 258 and 259: ReferencesNovember to 11 December 2
- Page 260 and 261: ReferencesEEA (2011a) Mapping the i
- Page 262 and 263: References19 December 2009. UNFCCC,
- Page 264 and 265: ReferencesIsaksen, K., Sollid, J. L
- Page 266 and 267: Referencesfür Hydrologie und Limno
- Page 268 and 269: Referencescirculation models. Journ
- Page 270 and 271: Referencesin Geophysics 32(4-5), 58
- Page 272 and 273: ReferencesVermeer, M. and Rahmstorf
- Page 274 and 275: ReferencesDevelopment. http://ec.eu
- Page 276 and 277: ReferencesMooij, W. M., Hulsmann, S
- Page 278 and 279: ReferencesAraújo, M. B., Thuiller,
- Page 280 and 281: ReferencesPeninsula (1952-2004). Ec
- Page 282 and 283: ReferencesMenzel, A., Sparks, T. H.
- Page 284 and 285: ReferencesUrban, M. C., Tewksbury,
- Page 286 and 287: ReferencesM., Palosuo, T., Bellamy,
- Page 288 and 289: ReferencesApplied Climatology 74, 4
- Page 290 and 291: Referencesepidemiologic evidence. E
- Page 292 and 293: ReferencesEnvironmental Health Pers
- Page 294 and 295: Referencestemperature. Epidemiology
- Page 296: ReferencesEEA (2012) Annual Europea
- Page 299: ReferencesChapter 5:Vulnerability t
- Page 303 and 304: European Environment AgencyClimate