Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe ... - MemoFin.fr

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Technical summaryMountain areasThe increase in temperature is particularly highin many mountain regions, where loss of glaciermass, reduced snow cover, thawing of permafrostand changing precipitation patterns, including lessprecipitation falling as snow, have been observedand are expected to increase further. This couldlead to an increase in the frequency and intensityof floods in some mountain areas (e.g. in parts ofScandinavia) that can impact people and the builtenvironment. Additional projected impacts includereduced winter tourism, lower energy potentialfrom hydropower in southern Europe, a shift invegetation zones and extensive biodiversity loss.Plant and animal species living close to mountaintops face the risk of becoming extinct due to theinability to migrate to higher regions.The retreat of the vast majority of glaciers alsoaffects water availability in downstream areas.Damage costsDamage costs from weather and climate-relateddisastersHydro-meteorological events (storms, floods, andlandslides) account for 64 % of the reported damagecosts due to natural disasters in Europe since1980; climatological events (extreme temperatures;droughts and forest fires) account for another 20 %.It is, however, difficult to determine accuratelythe proportion of damages that are attributable toclimate change. Damages from extreme weatherevents have increased from EUR 9 billion in the1980s to more than EUR 13 billion in the 2000s. Theincreased in damages is primarily due to increases inpopulation, economic wealth and human activitiesin hazard-prone areas and to better reporting. Thecontribution of climate change to the damage costsfrom natural disasters is expected to increase due tothe projected changes in the intensity and frequencyof extreme weather events.Projected costs of climate change impactsProjections suggest potentially large costsof combined climate change impacts andsocio‐economic developments in Europe,particularly due to increases in coastal andriver flooding, heat waves and energy demand(for cooling). The most costly impacts differ stronglyacross Europe. In southern parts of Europe the mostcostly impacts are increases in energy demand andheat waves, in western Europe coastal flooding andheat waves, in northern Europe coastal and riverfloods and in eastern Europe river floods. Significantreductions in costs can be achieved by global andEuropean mitigation policies, consistent with theUNFCCC 2 °C objective, in combination withadaptation actions.Cost estimates have a medium to good coverage atEuropean level for coastal and river flooding, watersupply, energy demand, agriculture and humanhealth, but for various key sectors cost estimatesare fragmentary or unavailable (infrastructure,built environment, tourism, transport, forestry). Forbiodiversity and ecosystem services cost estimatesare difficult to prepare due to the challenge ofproper valuation. Estimates of the total costs offuture climate change on the European economy arecurrently not available.Data availability and needsThe available data and indicators show that climatechange is occurring and causes a multitude ofdifferent impacts. Longer time series and greaterspatial coverage of both climate change and itsimpacts can provide greater insights into processesof change and a more diversified picture acrossEurope. Actions being undertaken globally andin Europe to improve monitoring of EssentialClimate Variables (ECVs) from both in situ stationsand using satellites are expected to enhancethe knowledge base. In addition on-going andplanned actions on reanalysis of European climatedata will improve the understanding of climatechange. It is important that the planned actions areimplemented. Currently there is a lack of sufficientobservations of impacts of climate change onvarious environmental and socio‐economic systemsand on human health. Properly including climatechange impact aspects in existing monitoringsystems can improve the knowledge base neededto develop evidence based adaptation policies andactions.European wide integrated climate changevulnerability assessments apply differentmethodologies, and the underlying datasets haveimportant limitations. The availability of consistentand comparable information at EU level on scenariosfor key socio‐economic and physical variables isincomplete. Also European wide projections of costestimates of impacts, including damages of extremeweather events, can be improved. On-going andplanned EU funded research is expected to improvethis situation.26 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012
Technical summaryMany European countries have performed nationaland sub-national climate change vulnerabilityand risk assessments while several countries havenot yet done so. The comparability of nationalassessments, including the national impactindicators, may be improved in future for exampleby using comparable methods and climate andsocio‐economic projections.Climate change impacts indicators are currently onlyto a very limited extent included within existingand emerging European thematic and sectoralindicator sets, but this should be considered infuture improvements of these indicator sets. Theindicators informing this assessment are based onEU-wide research and on global databases. Someselected indicators may in the future be based ondata collected from member countries, e.g. throughthe European Climate Adaptation PlatformClimate‐ADAPT (http://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu)and/or through reporting of indicators by MemberStates to the European Commission and the EEA.Map TS.1Key observed and projected climate change and impacts for the main regions inEuropeArcticTemperature rise much larger than globalaverageDecrease in Arctic sea ice coverageDecrease in Greenland ice sheetDecrease in permafrost areasIncreasing risk of biodiversity lossIntensified shipping -70° and exploitation -60° -50° of oiland gas resources-30°-10°10°30°50°60°Northern EuropeTemperature rise much larger than global averageDecrease in snow, lake and river ice coverIncrease in river flowsNorthward movement of speciesIncrease in crop yieldsDecrease in energy demand for heating70° 80°90°Increase in hydropower potentialIncreasing damage risk from winter stormsIncrease in summer tourismNorth-western EuropeIncrease in winterprecipitation60°Increase in river flowNorthward movement ofspeciesDecrease in energy demandfor heatingIncreasing risk of river andcoastal floodingMountain areasTemperature rise larger than European averageIncrease in glacier extent and volumeDecrease in mountain permafrost areasUpward shift of plant and animal speciesHigh risk of species extinction 50° in Alpine regionsIncreasing risk of soil erosionDecrease in ski tourismCoastal zones andregional seas50°Sea-level riseIncrease in sea surfacetemperaturesIncrease in ocean acidityNorthward expansion of fishand plankton speciesChanges in phytoplanktoncommunitiesIncreasing risk 40° for fish stocksCentral and eastern EuropeIncrease in warm temperature extremesDecrease in summer precipitationIncrease in water temperatureIncreasing risk of forest fire40°Decrease in economic value of forests30°30°Mediterranean regionTemperature rise larger than -10° European average 0°Decrease in annual precipitationDecrease in annual river flowIncreasing risk of biodiversity lossIncreasing risk of desertificationIncreasing 10° water demand 20° for agriculture 30°Decrease in crop yieldsIncreasing risk of forest fireIncrease in mortality from heat wavesExpansion of 40° habitats for southerndisease vectorsDecrease in hydropower potentialDecrease in summer tourism andpotential increase in other seasonsNote:Information covers both observed and projected changes (see text and Table TS.2 for details).Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 201227
Page 3 and 4: EEA Report No 12/2012Climate change
Page 5: ContentsContentsAcknowledgements...
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Vulnerability to climate changein f
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Vulnerability to climate changeMap
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Vulnerability to climate changeasse
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Vulnerability to climate changeBox
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Indicator and data needsA key polic
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Indicator and data needsWEI and res
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Indicator and data needsDirectorate
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Indicator and data needs6.2.2 Globa
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Abbreviations and acronyms7 Abbrevi
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Abbreviations and acronymsAcronym o
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Abbreviations and acronymsProject a
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Referenceset al. (2010) DEMIFER: De
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ReferencesNovember to 11 December 2
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ReferencesEEA (2011a) Mapping the i
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References19 December 2009. UNFCCC,
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ReferencesIsaksen, K., Sollid, J. L
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Referencesfür Hydrologie und Limno
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Referencescirculation models. Journ
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Referencesin Geophysics 32(4-5), 58
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ReferencesVermeer, M. and Rahmstorf
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ReferencesDevelopment. http://ec.eu
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ReferencesMooij, W. M., Hulsmann, S
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ReferencesAraújo, M. B., Thuiller,
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ReferencesApplied Climatology 74, 4
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ReferencesEnvironmental Health Pers
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Referencestemperature. Epidemiology
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ReferencesEEA (2012) Annual Europea
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ReferencesChapter 5:Vulnerability t
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