Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe ... - MemoFin.fr

Technical summaryMountain areasThe increase in temperature is particularly highin many mountain regions, where loss of glaciermass, reduced snow cover, thawing of permafrostand changing precipitation patterns, including lessprecipitation falling as snow, have been observedand are expected to increase further. This couldlead to an increase in the frequency and intensityof floods in some mountain areas (e.g. in parts ofScandinavia) that can impact people and the builtenvironment. Additional projected impacts includereduced winter tourism, lower energy potentialfrom hydropower in southern Europe, a shift invegetation zones and extensive biodiversity loss.Plant and animal species living close to mountaintops face the risk of becoming extinct due to theinability to migrate to higher regions.The retreat of the vast majority of glaciers alsoaffects water availability in downstream areas.Damage costsDamage costs from weather and climate-relateddisastersHydro-meteorological events (storms, floods, andlandslides) account for 64 % of the reported damagecosts due to natural disasters in Europe since1980; climatological events (extreme temperatures;droughts and forest fires) account for another 20 %.It is, however, difficult to determine accuratelythe proportion of damages that are attributable toclimate change. Damages from extreme weatherevents have increased from EUR 9 billion in the1980s to more than EUR 13 billion in the 2000s. Theincreased in damages is primarily due to increases inpopulation, economic wealth and human activitiesin hazard-prone areas and to better reporting. Thecontribution of climate change to the damage costsfrom natural disasters is expected to increase due tothe projected changes in the intensity and frequencyof extreme weather events.Projected costs of climate change impactsProjections suggest potentially large costsof combined climate change impacts andsocio‐economic developments in Europe,particularly due to increases in coastal andriver flooding, heat waves and energy demand(for cooling). The most costly impacts differ stronglyacross Europe. In southern parts of Europe the mostcostly impacts are increases in energy demand andheat waves, in western Europe coastal flooding andheat waves, in northern Europe coastal and riverfloods and in eastern Europe river floods. Significantreductions in costs can be achieved by global andEuropean mitigation policies, consistent with theUNFCCC 2 °C objective, in combination withadaptation actions.Cost estimates have a medium to good coverage atEuropean level for coastal and river flooding, watersupply, energy demand, agriculture and humanhealth, but for various key sectors cost estimatesare fragmentary or unavailable (infrastructure,built environment, tourism, transport, forestry). Forbiodiversity and ecosystem services cost estimatesare difficult to prepare due to the challenge ofproper valuation. Estimates of the total costs offuture climate change on the European economy arecurrently not available.Data availability and needsThe available data and indicators show that climatechange is occurring and causes a multitude ofdifferent impacts. Longer time series and greaterspatial coverage of both climate change and itsimpacts can provide greater insights into processesof change and a more diversified picture acrossEurope. Actions being undertaken globally andin Europe to improve monitoring of EssentialClimate Variables (ECVs) from both in situ stationsand using satellites are expected to enhancethe knowledge base. In addition on-going andplanned actions on reanalysis of European climatedata will improve the understanding of climatechange. It is important that the planned actions areimplemented. Currently there is a lack of sufficientobservations of impacts of climate change onvarious environmental and socio‐economic systemsand on human health. Properly including climatechange impact aspects in existing monitoringsystems can improve the knowledge base neededto develop evidence based adaptation policies andactions.European wide integrated climate changevulnerability assessments apply differentmethodologies, and the underlying datasets haveimportant limitations. The availability of consistentand comparable information at EU level on scenariosfor key socio‐economic and physical variables isincomplete. Also European wide projections of costestimates of impacts, including damages of extremeweather events, can be improved. On-going andplanned EU funded research is expected to improvethis situation.26 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012