Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe ... - MemoFin.fr

Technical summaryTable TS.1 Observed and projected climate change and impacts on environmental andsocio‐economic systems and human health (cont.)What is already happeningClimate impacts on socio‐economic systems and human healthAgricultureGrowing season foragricultural crops(C)Agrophenology (C)Water-limited cropproductivity (N)Irrigation waterrequirement (C)Forests and forestryForest growth (C)Forest fires (C)Fisheries andaquaculture (N)The thermal growing season of a number ofagricultural crops in Europe has lengthened by11.4 days on average from 1992 to 2008. Thedelay in the end of the growing season was morepronounced than the advance of its start.Flowering of a several perennial crops has advancedby about two days per decade in recent decades.These changes are affecting crop production and therelative performance of different crop species andvarieties.Yields of several crops (e.g. wheat) are stagnatingand yields of other crops (e.g. maize in northernEurope) are increasing, partly due to climatechange.Extreme climatic events, including droughtsand heat waves, have negatively affected cropproductivity during the first decade of the21st century.In Italy and the Iberian Peninsula, an increase in thevolume of water required for irrigation from 1975 to2010 has been estimated, whereas parts of southeasternEurope have recorded a decrease.Forest biomass and the area covered by forests andother wooded land have increased over the pastdecades. In some central and western forest areasof Europe, forest growth has been reduced in thelast 10 years due to storms, pests and diseases.The number of fires in the Mediterranean region hasincreased over the period from 1980 to 2000 anddecreased thereafter. The impact of fire events isparticularly strong on already degraded ecosystemsin southern Europe.Wild fish stocks seem to be responding to changingtemperatures and food supply by changing theirgeographical distribution.What could happenThe growing season is projected to increase furtherthroughout most of Europe which would allow anorthward expansion of warm-season crops to areasthat are currently not suitable.The shortening of crop growth phases in many cropsis expected to continue. The shortening of the grainfilling phase of cereals and oilseed crops can beparticularly detrimental to yield.Future climate change can lead to yield decreasesor increases, depending on crop type and withconsiderable regional differences across Europe.Yield variability is expected to further increase underprojected future climate change (including increasedintensity and frequency of extreme events).In southern Europe suitability for rain-fed agricultureis projected to decrease and irrigation requirementsare projected to increase, under future climatechange.Forest growth is projected to increase in northernEurope and to decrease in southern Europe underprojected future climate change.In a warmer climate, more severe fire weather and,as a consequence, an expansion of the fire-pronearea and longer fire seasons are projected, but withconsiderable regional variation.Future projected climate change is likely to leadto an increased catch potential in the Arctic, andto a decreased or constant catch potential in otherEuropean seas.Human healthFloods and health(N)Extremetemperatures andhealth (C)Air pollution byozone and health (C)River and coastal flooding affect millions of peoplein Europe each year. Effects include drowning,heart attacks, injuries, infections, psychosocialconsequences, health effects of chemical hazards,and disruption of services.Mortality and morbidity increase, especiallyin vulnerable population groups, and generalpopulation well-being decreases during extremecold spells and heat-waves, as well as above andbelow local and seasonal comfort temperatures, withdifferent temperature thresholds in Europe.Heat-waves over the last decade have caused tensof thousands of premature deaths in Europe.Excessive exposure to ground-level ozone isestimated to cause about 20 000 premature deathsper year in Europe.Attribution of observed changes in ozoneexceedances to climate change is difficult.Climate change can influence where aquaculture ispossible, which species are raised, and the efficiencyof the production.Increases in health risks associated with river andcoastal flooding are projected in many regionsof Europe due to projected increases in extremeprecipitation events and sea level.Length, frequency, and intensity of heat-waves arevery likely to increase in the future. This increase canlead to a substantial increase in mortality over thenext decades, especially in vulnerable groups, unlessadaptation measures are taken.Cold-related mortality is projected to decrease inmany countries due to climate change as well asbetter social, economic, and housing conditions.Future projected climate change is expected toincrease ozone concentrations but this effect will mostlikely be outweighed by reduction in ozone levels dueto expected future emission reductions.Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 201223