Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe ... - MemoFin.fr
Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe ... - MemoFin.fr Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe ... - MemoFin.fr
Vulnerability to climate changefactors. The results also show a very wide rangearound the central (mean ensemble) estimates,representing the range of results from differentclimate models. In all cases, the costs in later yearsfall significantly under an E1 (2 °C) scenario,by almost half by the 2080s, and more than thisunder scenarios where acclimatisation is included.Additional economic costs were estimated forfood‐borne disease (salmonellosis) and flood‐relateddeaths, though these were found to be relativelylow compared to heat-related mortality. It isalso stressed that there are potentially very largeeconomic benefits from climate change reducingwinter (cold‐related) mortality in Europe. Previousestimates (Watkiss and Hunt, 2012) estimate thatthese are likely to be at least as large — in termsof the reduction in cases of mortality/life yearsgained and economic benefits — as the increases inheat‐related mortality.Biodiversity and ecosystems servicesThe valuation of the effects of climate changeon biodiversity and ecosystems services isextremely complex and while a number of studieshave undertaken case studies, this remains anunder‐explored area. There has been wider progresson ecosystem service valuation, notably throughthe Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity(TEEB) study (TEEB, 2010). There have alsobeen assessments of the economic benefits thatecosystems services (forests) provide in termsof carbon sequestration (regulating services)and the effects of climate change on these underfuture scenarios. However, the results are highlydetermined by assumptions about CO 2fertilisation(Watkiss, 2011). Some work has also looked atecosystem shifts from climate change on bioclimaticspecies and ecosystem envelopes and usingrestoration costs (Hunt, 2008). However, the widerapplication of ecosystem service valuation to assessthe impacts of climate change remains a majorpriority for future analysis.236 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012
Indicator and data needs6 Indicator and data needsKey messages• For many indicators of past climate change and climate change impacts in Europe improvements in dataare needed (e.g. to extend the length of time series and the geographical coverage).• Enhanced monitoring is needed of Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) relevant for adaptation, both fromin situ stations and using satellites and there is also a need for further reanalysis of European climatedata.• Enhanced monitoring is also needed of climate change impacts in Europe on environmental systems,socio‐economic systems and health, and of costs of damages of extreme weather events.• Climate change impacts indicators are only to a very limited extent included within existing andemerging European thematic and sectoral indicator sets, but this should be considered in futureimprovements of these indicator sets.• Currently, indicators in this report are based on EU-wide research and/or global databases. For manyindicators this could continue in the future while some selected indicators may in the future be based ondirect data collected from member countries, for example through the Climate-ADAPT platform and/orthrough reporting of indicators by Member States to the European Commission and the EEA.• Improved comparability of climate change impact indicators may be achieved if consistent andcomparable methods and data would be implemented across EEA member countries.• Future EU research on climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation is expected to increase,which can help improve the coverage and quality of European-wide indicators.IntroductionThis chapter covers the existing indicatorframeworks at EU level and thematic and sectoralindicator sets and shows that these have includedclimate change and climate change impacts only to avery limited extent.The chapter also summarises the existing andplanned improvements of observation systemsfor ECVs and the role of Global Monitoring forEnvironment and Security (GMES). It shows thatenhanced monitoring of ECVs, both from in situstations and using satellites, is needed.Finally, the chapter provides a short overviewof climate change impacts, vulnerability andadaptation research activities in Europe. Althoughmuch research has been done, further research willbe needed, through Horizon 2020, the EU financialinstrument on future research and innovation. Itis expected that around 35 % of the Horizon 2020budget will be climate-related expenditure, which isfor mitigation and adaptation together.6.1 Policy needs for indicators6.1.1 Indicator frameworks at EU levelIn the EU a number of indicator sets exist or arebeing developed for various policy purposes. Theseinitiatives do not yet explicitly take climate changeimpact, vulnerability and adaptation (CC IVA)aspects into account, although the indicator globaltemperature increase is included in a few sets (eitheras contextual or as key indicator). Here some of themain policy and related indicator developments arepresented that are expected to have an influence onthe future development of more specific indicatorson CC IVA.The focus of this chapter is on data and indicatorson past and present climate change and its impacts.Vulnerability, usually focusing on future projectionsand scenarios, was addressed in Chapter 5, whilethe introduction mentioned the importance ofsocio‐economic scenarios within vulnerabilityassessments.Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012237
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Indicator <strong>and</strong> data needs6 Indicator <strong>and</strong> data needsKey messages• For many <strong>in</strong>dicators of past climate <strong>change</strong> <strong>and</strong> climate <strong>change</strong> <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>Europe</strong> improvements <strong>in</strong> dataare needed (e.g. to extend the length of time series <strong>and</strong> the geographical coverage).• Enhanced monitor<strong>in</strong>g is needed of Essential <strong>Climate</strong> Variables (ECVs) relevant for adaptation, both <strong>fr</strong>om<strong>in</strong> situ stations <strong>and</strong> us<strong>in</strong>g satellites <strong>and</strong> there is also a need for further reanalysis of <strong>Europe</strong>an climatedata.• Enhanced monitor<strong>in</strong>g is also needed of climate <strong>change</strong> <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>Europe</strong> on environmental systems,socio‐economic systems <strong>and</strong> health, <strong>and</strong> of costs of damages of extreme weather events.• <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>in</strong>dicators are only to a very limited extent <strong>in</strong>cluded with<strong>in</strong> exist<strong>in</strong>g <strong>and</strong>emerg<strong>in</strong>g <strong>Europe</strong>an thematic <strong>and</strong> sectoral <strong>in</strong>dicator sets, but this should be considered <strong>in</strong> futureimprovements of these <strong>in</strong>dicator sets.• Currently, <strong>in</strong>dicators <strong>in</strong> this report are based on EU-wide research <strong>and</strong>/or global databases. For many<strong>in</strong>dicators this could cont<strong>in</strong>ue <strong>in</strong> the future while some selected <strong>in</strong>dicators may <strong>in</strong> the future be based ondirect data collected <strong>fr</strong>om member countries, for example through the <strong>Climate</strong>-ADAPT platform <strong>and</strong>/orthrough report<strong>in</strong>g of <strong>in</strong>dicators by Member States to the <strong>Europe</strong>an Commission <strong>and</strong> the EEA.• Improved comparability of climate <strong>change</strong> impact <strong>in</strong>dicators may be achieved if consistent <strong>and</strong>comparable methods <strong>and</strong> data would be implemented across EEA member countries.• Future EU research on climate <strong>change</strong> <strong>impacts</strong>, <strong>vulnerability</strong> <strong>and</strong> adaptation is expected to <strong>in</strong>crease,which can help improve the coverage <strong>and</strong> quality of <strong>Europe</strong>an-wide <strong>in</strong>dicators.IntroductionThis chapter covers the exist<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong>dicator<strong>fr</strong>ameworks at EU level <strong>and</strong> thematic <strong>and</strong> sectoral<strong>in</strong>dicator sets <strong>and</strong> shows that these have <strong>in</strong>cludedclimate <strong>change</strong> <strong>and</strong> climate <strong>change</strong> <strong>impacts</strong> only to avery limited extent.The chapter also summarises the exist<strong>in</strong>g <strong>and</strong>planned improvements of observation systemsfor ECVs <strong>and</strong> the role of Global Monitor<strong>in</strong>g forEnvironment <strong>and</strong> Security (GMES). It shows thatenhanced monitor<strong>in</strong>g of ECVs, both <strong>fr</strong>om <strong>in</strong> situstations <strong>and</strong> us<strong>in</strong>g satellites, is needed.F<strong>in</strong>ally, the chapter provides a short overviewof climate <strong>change</strong> <strong>impacts</strong>, <strong>vulnerability</strong> <strong>and</strong>adaptation research activities <strong>in</strong> <strong>Europe</strong>. Althoughmuch research has been done, further research willbe needed, through Horizon 2020, the EU f<strong>in</strong>ancial<strong>in</strong>strument on future research <strong>and</strong> <strong>in</strong>novation. Itis expected that around 35 % of the Horizon 2020budget will be climate-related expenditure, which isfor mitigation <strong>and</strong> adaptation together.6.1 Policy needs for <strong>in</strong>dicators6.1.1 Indicator <strong>fr</strong>ameworks at EU levelIn the EU a number of <strong>in</strong>dicator sets exist or arebe<strong>in</strong>g developed for various policy purposes. These<strong>in</strong>itiatives do not yet explicitly take climate <strong>change</strong>impact, <strong>vulnerability</strong> <strong>and</strong> adaptation (CC IVA)aspects <strong>in</strong>to account, although the <strong>in</strong>dicator globaltemperature <strong>in</strong>crease is <strong>in</strong>cluded <strong>in</strong> a few sets (eitheras contextual or as key <strong>in</strong>dicator). Here some of thema<strong>in</strong> policy <strong>and</strong> related <strong>in</strong>dicator developments arepresented that are expected to have an <strong>in</strong>fluence onthe future development of more specific <strong>in</strong>dicatorson CC IVA.The focus of this chapter is on data <strong>and</strong> <strong>in</strong>dicatorson past <strong>and</strong> present climate <strong>change</strong> <strong>and</strong> its <strong>impacts</strong>.Vulnerability, usually focus<strong>in</strong>g on future projections<strong>and</strong> scenarios, was addressed <strong>in</strong> Chapter 5, whilethe <strong>in</strong>troduction mentioned the importance ofsocio‐economic scenarios with<strong>in</strong> <strong>vulnerability</strong>assessments.<strong>Climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>, <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>vulnerability</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>Europe</strong> 2012237