Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe ... - MemoFin.fr

Vulnerability to climate changeeffects of socio‐economic and climate change, currentvalues, undiscounted) in the EU-27. However, alarge part of these future costs (and the increasein exposure) is driven by socio‐economic change(population and economic growth), noting thesedrivers vary among EU Member States. Analysis atthe country level shows high climate-related costsin Belgium, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands andthe United Kingdom. The results also show a verywide range around these central (mean ensemble)estimates, representing the range of results fromdifferent climate models. At the EU level, thepotential damage costs were found to vary by afactor of two (higher or lower) across the range ofmodels sampled (12 regional climate models): atthe country level the differences were even moresignificant, with different models even reportingdifferences in the sign of change. This highlightsthe need to consider this variability (uncertainty)in formulating adaptation strategies. Under theE1 stabilisation scenario, the costs were estimatedto fall to EUR 15 billion by the 2020s, EUR 42 billionby the 2050s and EUR 68 billion by the 2080s in theEU-27 (current values, undiscounted). There hasalso been work on European-wide assessments ofdrought risks and water scarcity risks, as part of theClimWatAdapt project (see Section 5.2), though thishas not produced damage costs.EnergySome of the largest potential costs (and also benefits)of climate change in Europe are likely to occur inthe energy sector (see Section 4.5). Climate changewill have negative and positive effects on futureenergy demand, increasing summer cooling butreducing winter heating demand. The ClimateCoststudy has assessed the potential impacts andeconomic costs of climate change on energy demandin Europe using the POLES model (Mima et al.,2012). Considering cooling demand first, the studyreports a strong increase in cooling (and electricity)demand in Europe under the A1B scenario, withthe additional cooling costs from climate changealone estimated at around EUR 30 billion/year inthe EU-27 by 2050, rising to EUR 109 billion/yearby 2100 (current values, undiscounted). There is astrong distributional pattern of cooling increasesacross Europe, with a much higher increase insouthern Europe, and as for other sectors, a verywide range around the central (mean ensemble)estimates, representing the range of results fromdifferent climate models. However, a similar level ofeconomic benefit is projected from the reduction inwinter heating demand from warmer temperaturesunder the A1B scenario, estimated also at just overEUR 100 billion/year by 2100, though the benefitsgenerally arise in different countries due to the costsof increased cooling. Under the E1 scenario, thetotal costs of cooling demand due to climate change(alone) are much lower, estimated at approximatelyEUR 20 billion/year across the period 2050–2100.Climate change will also have effects on energysupply, notably on hydro-electric generation,but also potentially on thermal power (nuclearand fossil) plants and on some renewables. Thecombined effects of these supply effects could besignificant (at up to a few per cent of Europeangeneration) and have potentially large economiccosts, potentially similar in size to the demandeffects described above.Human healthFor non‐market sectors, a key focus has been onthe health sector (see also Section 4.4). The largesteconomic costs are likely to arise from heat-relatedmortality, though the potential effects of food‐bornedisease and flood-related health effects are alsoimportant. ClimateCost provided Europeanestimates of the impacts and economic costs ofclimate change on health in Europe (Kovats et al.,2011). The costs of heat-related mortality wereestimated, though the reported values vary stronglyaccording to whether acclimatisation is assumed,and on the metric used for mortality valuation.The estimated costs of heat-related mortality —from climate change and socio‐economic change(including the population age distribution) — wereestimated at over EUR 200 billion/year by the 2050s(2041–2070) when using a full Value of a StatisticalLife (VSL); however, these estimates are driven byfuture socio‐economic change. The estimated costsof heat related mortality — from climate changealone (over and above socio‐economic change) —were estimated at EUR 31 billion/year by the 2020s(2011–2040), EUR 103 billion/year by the 2050s(2041–2070) and EUR 147 billion/year by the 2080s(2071–2100) for the A1B scenario when using afull VSL. These values fell by over a factor of tenwhen using the Value of a Life Year Lost (VOLY)approach, which adjusts for the average period oflife lost. Including (autonomous) acclimatisationalso reduced these A1B impacts significantly, byaround a factor of three for later time periods.The greatest impacts arise in the most populatedcountries (in absolute) terms, but there are relativelyhigher increases (per population) for Mediterraneancountries, reflecting higher warming and riskClimate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012235