Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe ... - MemoFin.fr

Vulnerability to climate changeOf course, all of the estimates above are partial.Even within the sectors covered, the analysisconsiders a subset of the possible effects of climatechange. There are also important sectors for whichestimates are not reported above (e.g. water,business, etc.) and some others where valuationremains challenging, notably biodiversity andecosystems services (including terrestrial, aquaticand marine systems, including the effects of oceanacidification).The analysis also excludes the cross-sectoral,wider economic and international (non‐European)effects. There has been some assessment of widermacro‐economic effects in Europe (Ciscar et al.,2011) using computable general equilibrium models,but the coverage of cross-sectoral effects remains atan early stage, and there is very little quantitativeevidence on how impacts internationally will impactwithin Europe. All of these additional categoriesneed to be considered in weighing up the overalleconomic estimates of climate change to Europe.An indicative summary table showing the coverageof damage cost estimates is shown in Table 5.1.Table 5.1Coverage of European-wide damage cost studies by sectorSector Coverage DamagecostestimatesCoastal zones High coverage (infrastructure/erosion) for Europe, regions, several Member States as well ascities/local examples. Less on valuation of coastal ecosystems.WaterMedium. European-wide studies of flood risks, as well as national, river basin or sub-national studieson water supply.Some coverage of droughts and wider demand-supply balance.EnergyAgricultureHealthInfrastructure/built environmentMedium. Cooling/heating demand for Europe, as well as some Member States. Number of studies onhydro-generation, and some analysis of thermal plant.Medium. Large number of studies on crop productivity, with consideration of values, including aspart of international studies looking at trade effects. Much less analysis outside main crops, e.g. onhorticulture, livestock and wider multi-functionality of agriculture.Medium. Several European studies on heat-related mortality, and a number of other effects(food‐borne disease, some flood risk aspects). Less coverage of economics of other health risks.Medium. Largely covered through flood and energy analysis above. Some indicative estimates forstorm damage, some national studies of subsidence.Tourism Medium — Low. Some European analysis (summer tourism) and winter tourism (Alps). TransportForestryBiodiversity/ecosystemsservicesBusiness andindustryIndirect andcross-sectoralMacro-economiceffectsInternational(effects into EU)Tipping elementsMedium — Low. Recent European analysis, and number of national and individual sector casestudies.Low — Medium. A number of studies, within Europe and linked as part of global assessments,mostly focused on timber value, though some carbon storage values emerging.Low – limited number of quantitative studies, though some examples through to valuation(e.g. carbon sequestration).Very low — no quantitative studies found. –Low — some examples (e.g. flooding) but limited, and little coverage of full range of effects andcompounding factors.Low — a number of studies have fed sectoral impact assessment values into computable generalequilibrium (CGE) models.Very little quantitative literature. Potentially includes issues with imports/exports, supply chains,international price effects, and socially contingent effects such as from migration or conflict (andimpacts on Europe or on development funding).Low — though a number of studies on economic costs of major sea-level rise in Europe and atMember State level.–Note:See main text for discussion and caveats.Key: Good coverage at European, national and local levels. Reasonable coverage, with a selection of European and national studies. Emerging coverage, with a selection of European and some national studies. Low coverage with some initial European or selected national or case studies.– Lack of published studies, literature mostly focused on qualitative analysis.Source: EEA, 2010a.Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012233