Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe ... - MemoFin.fr

Vulnerability to climate changeFigure 5.4Projections of economic costs from climate change and socio‐economicdevelopments for four major categoriesProjected damage costs, A1B, billion EUR per year, undiscounted350Projected damage costs, billion EUR per year, undiscounted350300300250250200200150150100100505002020s 2050s 2080s0A1BE1Energy for coolingRiver floodsHeat mortalityCoastal zonesNote:Left: damage costs for the A1B scenario for energy for cooling, heat-related mortality (weighted average of Value of aStatistical Life (VSL) and Value of a Life Year Lost (VOLY)), river floods and coastal zones. Time horizon: 2010–2040,2040–2070 and 2070–2100.Right: A1B and E1 scenarios, 2070–2100.Source: Watkiss, 2011.Summary of resultsThe results of the ClimateCost project revealpotentially large costs of inaction in Europe(see Figure 5.4). They also show the stronggeographical differences across regions(see Figure 5.5). Importantly, they show thesignificant reductions in costs of inaction that canbe achieved by mitigation policy consistent withthe EU's 2 °C target, including avoiding some of thepotential lower-probability, high-consequence events(see Figure 5.4).There are also some headline aggregated resultswhich report large economic costs for Europe. Asan example, the PAGE09 Integrated AssessmentModel (IAM) (Hope, 2011; Watkiss, 2011) reportstotal damage costs equivalent to almost 4 % of GDPfor Europe by 2100 under an A1B scenario, witha risk of extremely large costs at the tails of thedistribution (in excess of 10 % of GDP equivalent).Under the E1 scenario (equivalent to the 2 °C target)these fall to under 1 % of GDP equivalent and, moreimportantly, remove the tail of extreme values. Itis stressed, however, that some other IAMs reportmuch lower values.Figure 5.5%1009080706050403020100Note:CoastalzonesEU-27 only; A1B scenario, 2070–2100, combinedeffects of climate change and socio‐economic change.Source: Watkiss, 2011.Projected distribution ofeconomic costs from climatechange and socio‐economicdevelopments by impact type andEuropean regionRiverfloodsEnergy(cooling)Health(mortality)Southern Northern Eastern Western232 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012