Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe ... - MemoFin.fr

Vulnerability to climate changefor changes in wealth and/or population, trendpatterns for economic losses and people affectedappear stable for OECD countries.ProjectionsAlthough it is currently difficult to determineaccurately the proportion of losses that areattributable to climate change (EEA, 2008; 2010c),in view of current and projected climate changeimpacts and risks its contribution to losses isexpected to increase.Several studies have analysed the costs of projectedclimate change impacts in Europe for varioussectors. However, these studies do not providespecific estimates for projected damage costs forweather and climate-related disasters, since reliableprojections for weather and climate-related extremeevents are not available (see also Section 2.2).The following section provides an overview ofthe main information on costs of projected climatechange impacts across a range of sectors in Europe.5.5.2 Projected costs of climate changeIntroductionThe effects of climate change, as outlined in theprevious chapters and sections, will lead to wideranging impacts on the natural and man-madeenvironment. They will also lead to economic costs,often known as the 'costs of inaction', which areincreasingly used to inform the policy debate onclimate change in Europe. A number of differentmethods and models are being used to advanceestimates of the costs of inaction. As an input to theglobal debate, and for the estimation of the socialcost of carbon (the marginal economic costs of atonne of GHG emitted), the primary approach hasbeen to use global economic integrated assessmentmodels. At the regional to national level, theemerging focus has been on scenario-based impactassessment.At the European scale, a number of studies haveadvanced these assessments as part of consistentsectoral assessments, notably in the PESETA project(Ciscar et al., 2009, 2011) and the EU FP7-fundedClimateCost Project (Watkiss, 2011), though thereare many additional studies in individual sectors.A large number of studies and estimates are alsoemerging at Member State level (not reported here).In reporting and comparing these numbers, alarge number of caveats are needed, reflectingvariations in practice among studies. It is importantto consider whether results are reported for theimpact of climate change and socio‐economicchange together, the effects of climate change aloneabove future socio‐economic change, or the effectsof future climate change on current socio‐economicconditions. There are also major issues with thereporting and adjustment of economic values indifferent time periods, and whether future valuesare presented as discounted or present values. Notethat in the information that follows, values aregenerally reported as current prices in all futuretime periods to facilitate direct comparison, overtime, and among sectors.Key messages: 5.5.2 Projected costs of climate change• Projections suggest large increases in costs from coastal and river flooding, heat waves and energydemand (for cooling) due to the combined effects of climate change and socio‐economic developmentsin Europe.• There are strong geographical differences in projected costs, with pronounced damage costs in southernEurope due to increases in energy demand and heat waves, in western Europe due to coastal floodingand heat waves, in northern Europe due to coastal and river floods, and in eastern Europe due to riverfloods.• Significant cost reductions can be achieved if mitigation policy would constrain climate changeconsistent with the EU's 2 °C objective, compared to a business-as-usual emissions scenario.• Cost estimates have a medium to good coverage at European level for coastal and river flooding, watersupply, energy demand, agriculture and human health, but cost estimates are not available or veryincomplete for infrastructure, built environment, tourism, transport and forestry. Economic costs forimpacts on biodiversity and ecosystems services are difficult to prepare due to the challenge of propervaluation.• Information on the total costs of the impacts of global climate change on the European economy islacking.Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012231