Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe ... - MemoFin.fr

Vulnerability to climate change5.5 Damage costsThe first part of this section presents observedtrends in weather and climate-related events andthe economic losses associated with them. Whilethese events have been influenced by global climatechange, it is not generally possible to attributespecific events or observed trends to global climatechange. The second part presents results of theClimateCost project, which estimates economic costsof climate change in Europe for different emissionsscenarios.5.5.1 Damages from weather and climate-relatedeventsRelevanceEconomic losses from weather- and climate-relateddisasters have increased, but with large spatialand interannual variability. Global weather- andclimate-related disaster losses reported over thelast few decades reflect mainly monetised directdamages to assets, and are unequally distributed.Loss estimates are lower-bound estimates becausemany impacts, such as loss of human lives, culturalheritage and ecosystems services, are difficultto value and monetise, and thus they are poorlyreflected in estimates of losses. Economic, includinginsured, disaster losses associated with weather,climate and geophysical events are higher indeveloped countries. Fatality rates and economiclosses expressed as a proportion of GDP are higherin developing countries (IPCC, 2012).Europe is experiencing an increasing number ofhydro-meteorological, geophysical and technologicaldisasters that are caused by a combination ofchanges in its physical, technological and human/social systems. The potential for a hazard to causea disaster mainly depends on how vulnerable anexposed community is to such hazards. Actionsand measures, if well implemented, can reduce thehuman health and economic impact of a hazardousevent. In recent years, policies for disaster riskreduction and management have shifted to acomprehensive, integrated risk approach. The fulldisaster cycle — prevention, preparedness, responseand recovery — should be taken into consideration(EEA, 2011). Adaptation to climate change anddisaster risk management provide a range ofcomplementary approaches for managing the risksof climate extremes and disasters (IPCC, 2012).Uncertainties and data gapsInformation for Europe can be extracted from twoglobal disaster databases, namely the EM‐DATdatabase maintained by CRED ( 77 ) (see alsoSection 4.4) that places a particular focus on humanfatalities and displaced and affected people, and theNatCatSERVICE database (NatCatSERVICE, 2012)maintained by Munich RE that provides data oninsured and overall losses. The 'disaster thresholds'for an event to be included in these global databasesare as follows:• EM-DAT: 10 or more people killed and/or 100 ormore people affected and/or declaration of astate of emergency and/or call for internationalassistance;Key messages: 5.5.1 Damages from weather and climate-related events• Hydro-meteorological events (storms, floods, and landslides) account for 64 % of the reported damagesdue to natural disasters in Europe since 1980; climatological events (extreme temperatures; droughtsand forest fires) account for another 20 %.• Overall damages from extreme weather events have increased from EUR 9 billion in the 1980s to morethan EUR 13 billion in the 2000s (inflation-corrected).• The observed damage increase is primarily due to increases in population, economic wealth and humanactivities in hazard-prone areas and to better reporting.• It is currently difficult to determine accurately the proportion of damage costs that are attributableto climate change. The contribution of climate change to the damage costs from natural disasters isexpected to increase due to the projected changes in the intensity and frequency of extreme weatherevents.( 77 ) See http://www.emdat.be.228 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012