Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe ... - MemoFin.fr

Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe ... - MemoFin.fr Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe ... - MemoFin.fr

10.07.2015 Views

Vulnerability to climate change5.3.3 Policy implicationsThe ESPON Climate project constitutes the mostcomprehensive pan-European climate changevulnerability assessment to date. The projectprovides not only regionally specific results butalso aggregated, cross-sectoral findings that lendthemselves to high-level European policymaking.For example, ESPON Climate demonstrated thatEurope's climate change vulnerability runs counterto territorial cohesion. The assessment indicated thatclimate change will probably deepen the existingsocio‐economic imbalances between the core ofEurope and its southern and south-eastern partsbecause many economically lagging regions arealso the most vulnerable to climate change. Mostlikely these imbalances will even increase in thefuture: the current economic and financial crises inGreece, Spain, Italy and Portugal are reducing bothindividual and collective adaptive capacities. Andin eastern Europe severe demographic changes likemassive out-migration and ageing are projected tocontinue, which would further increase regionalclimate change sensitivity and decrease adaptivecapacity levels (e.g. an older regional populationis more sensitive to heat and less able to adapt toclimate change).ESPON Climate's methodologies and resultscould possibly become part of an evolving policysupport tool that would enable policymakers atEuropean, national and regional levels to 1) identifyregional 'hot spots' with projected high impacts andweak capacity and devise appropriate adaptationmechanisms, 2) develop a more strategic and climatechange-responsive approach to territorial cohesion,3) identify especially vulnerable (sub)sectors andmainstream climate change adaptation into therespective sectoral policies, 4) develop territoriallydifferentiated adaptation strategies that take intoaccount the regional variations in regard to climatechange exposure, sensitivity, impact and adaptivecapacity, and 5) coordinate and integrate sectoralpolicies with a view to preventing potential negativeclimate change impacts and capitalising on positivedevelopment opportunities.5.4 Vulnerability of cities and urbanareas5.4.1 IntroductionCities are the places where most people inEurope will experience climate change impactsfirst; they accommodate around three quartersof the population, a share which is expected toincrease further (EEA, 2006a, 2010b; PLUREL,2011; UN, 2012). Urban areas are distinct fromthe surrounding rural regions. Their specificcomposition of people and activities as well as theirurban design alters climate change impacts, forexample exacerbates heat waves due to the UHIeffect, generating urban floods due to a high shareof impervious surfaces and water scarcity due tothe concentration of people and socio‐economicactivities (EEA, 2012). Cities are key for Europe'seconomy; innovation and major economic assetsconcentrate here (EC, 2009). The high and overallgrowing size of the urban population, economicassets of cities, and the complexity of city systems toprovide and manage energy, water, waste, food andother services make these cities highly vulnerable toboth current climate variability and climate change.With regards to data quality and data needs, theproportion of green and blue urban areas, populationdensity, soil sealing and the share of elderlypopulation were selected for assessing vulnerabilitiesof cities to heat waves, flooding and water scarcity.They should be considered as a first approximation.Many more factors determine vulnerability likemorphology, sewage infrastructure, other sensitivegroups or adaptive action taken, like green roofs andwalls or respective building design.Key messages: 5.4 Vulnerability of cities and urban areas• Over the past, increasing urban land take and urbanisation have in many places increased thevulnerability of European cities to different climate impacts like heat waves, flooding or water scarcity.The impacts of extreme events like flooding at the river Elbe (2002) or in Copenhagen (2011)demonstrate this increased vulnerability.• In the future, ongoing urban land take, growth and concentration of population in cities, and an ageingpopulation contribute to further increasing the vulnerability of cities to climate change. It is, however,currently uncertain to which extent an intelligent urban design and urban management of individualcities can buffer these negative effects.222 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012

Vulnerability to climate changeThe availability of comparable urban data at citylevel is limited. Main sources are the Urban Auditdatabase (Eurostat), the Urban Atlas and the soilsealing layer (EEA). Data describe the current state.Past trends or future projections comparable acrossEurope are not available. We reflect therefore onoverall European trends (e.g. population dynamics)or highlight potential risks in the form of 'what if thecurrent development continues…?'A more extended assessment of urban vulnerabilitiescan be found in (EEA, 2012).5.4.2 Past trendsarea in 2002 was only slightly bigger than in 1890and smaller than in 1845, the flooded builtup areahad increased dramatically.High soil sealing of urban areas restricts directdrainage of water into the ground. This is also amain factor for the development of a particularurban phenomenon — urban drainage floods. Thelow drainage into the soil leads to a high run-off ofwater into the sewage system and can deplete itscapacity. Excess water travels down roads and otherpaths of least resistance and floods low-lying areasas described for the urban flood 2011 in Copenhagen(Box 5.1).The past climatic trends described in Chapter 2 arerelevant for cities as well as the overall trends ofclimate impacts on systems and sectors (Chapters 3and 4), but the latter could have been altered in citiesdue to cities' composition, management and urbandesign.Figure 5.1Flooded area in Dresden(Germany) during different floodeventsFlooded area in haFlood riskOngoing urban land take has increased the areaof impervious surfaces and buildings in Europe(EEA, 2010c). It has limited the areas for naturaldrainage, water retention, production of fresh airand fixation of CO 2in and around cities and thusoften increased the effects of heat waves, floodsor water scarcity. This has already in the past ledto higher vulnerabilities to climate impacts. Anexample is provided in Figure 5.1, which comparesthree major flood events of the river Elbe in Dresdenin 1845, 1890 and 2002. Although the total flooded3 5003 0002 5002 0001 5001 000500031.03.1845 06.09.1890 17.08.2002Total area flooded Settlement area floodedSource: Schumacher, 2005.Box 5.1 The cloudburst in Copenhagen on 2 July 2011After a substantially hot period Copenhagen was hit by a huge thunderstorm on 2 July 2011. During the afternoonclouds and thunder had been building up over the southern part of Sweden. During a 2-hour period over 150 mmof rain fell in the city centre. This constituted the biggest single rainfall in Copenhagen since measurements beganin the mid-1800s.The city's sewers were unable to handle all of the water and as a result many streets were flooded and sewersoverflowed into houses, basements and onto streets thereby flooding the city. The consequences were quitedrastic as emergency services had to close roads and attend to people trapped in their cars. The emergencyservices were within minutes of having to evacuate the city's two biggest hospitals because of flooding and powercuts. Insurance damages alone were estimated at EUR 650–700 million. Damage to municipal infrastructure notcovered by insurance, such as roads, amounted to EUR 65 million.Source: Lykke Leonardsen, city of Copenhagen, 2011 (personal communication); EEA, 2012.Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012223

Vulnerability to climate <strong>change</strong>The availability of comparable urban data at citylevel is limited. Ma<strong>in</strong> sources are the Urban Auditdatabase (Eurostat), the Urban Atlas <strong>and</strong> the soilseal<strong>in</strong>g layer (EEA). Data describe the current state.Past trends or future projections comparable across<strong>Europe</strong> are not available. We reflect therefore onoverall <strong>Europe</strong>an trends (e.g. population dynamics)or highlight potential risks <strong>in</strong> the form of 'what if thecurrent development cont<strong>in</strong>ues…?'A more extended assessment of urban vulnerabilitiescan be found <strong>in</strong> (EEA, 2012).5.4.2 Past trendsarea <strong>in</strong> 2002 was only slightly bigger than <strong>in</strong> 1890<strong>and</strong> smaller than <strong>in</strong> 1845, the flooded builtup areahad <strong>in</strong>creased dramatically.High soil seal<strong>in</strong>g of urban areas restricts directdra<strong>in</strong>age of water <strong>in</strong>to the ground. This is also ama<strong>in</strong> factor for the development of a particularurban phenomenon — urban dra<strong>in</strong>age floods. Thelow dra<strong>in</strong>age <strong>in</strong>to the soil leads to a high run-off ofwater <strong>in</strong>to the sewage system <strong>and</strong> can deplete itscapacity. Excess water travels down roads <strong>and</strong> otherpaths of least resistance <strong>and</strong> floods low-ly<strong>in</strong>g areasas described for the urban flood 2011 <strong>in</strong> Copenhagen(Box 5.1).The past climatic trends described <strong>in</strong> Chapter 2 arerelevant for cities as well as the overall trends ofclimate <strong>impacts</strong> on systems <strong>and</strong> sectors (Chapters 3<strong>and</strong> 4), but the latter could have been altered <strong>in</strong> citiesdue to cities' composition, management <strong>and</strong> urb<strong>and</strong>esign.Figure 5.1Flooded area <strong>in</strong> Dresden(Germany) dur<strong>in</strong>g different floodeventsFlooded area <strong>in</strong> haFlood riskOngo<strong>in</strong>g urban l<strong>and</strong> take has <strong>in</strong>creased the areaof impervious surfaces <strong>and</strong> build<strong>in</strong>gs <strong>in</strong> <strong>Europe</strong>(EEA, 2010c). It has limited the areas for naturaldra<strong>in</strong>age, water retention, production of <strong>fr</strong>esh air<strong>and</strong> fixation of CO 2<strong>in</strong> <strong>and</strong> around cities <strong>and</strong> thusoften <strong>in</strong>creased the effects of heat waves, floodsor water scarcity. This has already <strong>in</strong> the past ledto higher vulnerabilities to climate <strong>impacts</strong>. Anexample is provided <strong>in</strong> Figure 5.1, which comparesthree major flood events of the river Elbe <strong>in</strong> Dresden<strong>in</strong> 1845, 1890 <strong>and</strong> 2002. Although the total flooded3 5003 0002 5002 0001 5001 000500031.03.1845 06.09.1890 17.08.2002Total area flooded Settlement area floodedSource: Schumacher, 2005.Box 5.1 The cloudburst <strong>in</strong> Copenhagen on 2 July 2011After a substantially hot period Copenhagen was hit by a huge thunderstorm on 2 July 2011. Dur<strong>in</strong>g the afternoonclouds <strong>and</strong> thunder had been build<strong>in</strong>g up over the southern part of Sweden. Dur<strong>in</strong>g a 2-hour period over 150 mmof ra<strong>in</strong> fell <strong>in</strong> the city centre. This constituted the biggest s<strong>in</strong>gle ra<strong>in</strong>fall <strong>in</strong> Copenhagen s<strong>in</strong>ce measurements began<strong>in</strong> the mid-1800s.The city's sewers were unable to h<strong>and</strong>le all of the water <strong>and</strong> as a result many streets were flooded <strong>and</strong> sewersoverflowed <strong>in</strong>to houses, basements <strong>and</strong> onto streets thereby flood<strong>in</strong>g the city. The consequences were quitedrastic as emergency services had to close roads <strong>and</strong> attend to people trapped <strong>in</strong> their cars. The emergencyservices were with<strong>in</strong> m<strong>in</strong>utes of hav<strong>in</strong>g to evacuate the city's two biggest hospitals because of flood<strong>in</strong>g <strong>and</strong> powercuts. Insurance damages alone were estimated at EUR 650–700 million. Damage to municipal <strong>in</strong><strong>fr</strong>astructure notcovered by <strong>in</strong>surance, such as roads, amounted to EUR 65 million.Source: Lykke Leonardsen, city of Copenhagen, 2011 (personal communication); EEA, 2012.<strong>Climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>, <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>vulnerability</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>Europe</strong> 2012223

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