Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe ... - MemoFin.fr

Vulnerability to climate change5.3.3 Policy implicationsThe ESPON Climate project constitutes the mostcomprehensive pan-European climate changevulnerability assessment to date. The projectprovides not only regionally specific results butalso aggregated, cross-sectoral findings that lendthemselves to high-level European policymaking.For example, ESPON Climate demonstrated thatEurope's climate change vulnerability runs counterto territorial cohesion. The assessment indicated thatclimate change will probably deepen the existingsocio‐economic imbalances between the core ofEurope and its southern and south-eastern partsbecause many economically lagging regions arealso the most vulnerable to climate change. Mostlikely these imbalances will even increase in thefuture: the current economic and financial crises inGreece, Spain, Italy and Portugal are reducing bothindividual and collective adaptive capacities. Andin eastern Europe severe demographic changes likemassive out-migration and ageing are projected tocontinue, which would further increase regionalclimate change sensitivity and decrease adaptivecapacity levels (e.g. an older regional populationis more sensitive to heat and less able to adapt toclimate change).ESPON Climate's methodologies and resultscould possibly become part of an evolving policysupport tool that would enable policymakers atEuropean, national and regional levels to 1) identifyregional 'hot spots' with projected high impacts andweak capacity and devise appropriate adaptationmechanisms, 2) develop a more strategic and climatechange-responsive approach to territorial cohesion,3) identify especially vulnerable (sub)sectors andmainstream climate change adaptation into therespective sectoral policies, 4) develop territoriallydifferentiated adaptation strategies that take intoaccount the regional variations in regard to climatechange exposure, sensitivity, impact and adaptivecapacity, and 5) coordinate and integrate sectoralpolicies with a view to preventing potential negativeclimate change impacts and capitalising on positivedevelopment opportunities.5.4 Vulnerability of cities and urbanareas5.4.1 IntroductionCities are the places where most people inEurope will experience climate change impactsfirst; they accommodate around three quartersof the population, a share which is expected toincrease further (EEA, 2006a, 2010b; PLUREL,2011; UN, 2012). Urban areas are distinct fromthe surrounding rural regions. Their specificcomposition of people and activities as well as theirurban design alters climate change impacts, forexample exacerbates heat waves due to the UHIeffect, generating urban floods due to a high shareof impervious surfaces and water scarcity due tothe concentration of people and socio‐economicactivities (EEA, 2012). Cities are key for Europe'seconomy; innovation and major economic assetsconcentrate here (EC, 2009). The high and overallgrowing size of the urban population, economicassets of cities, and the complexity of city systems toprovide and manage energy, water, waste, food andother services make these cities highly vulnerable toboth current climate variability and climate change.With regards to data quality and data needs, theproportion of green and blue urban areas, populationdensity, soil sealing and the share of elderlypopulation were selected for assessing vulnerabilitiesof cities to heat waves, flooding and water scarcity.They should be considered as a first approximation.Many more factors determine vulnerability likemorphology, sewage infrastructure, other sensitivegroups or adaptive action taken, like green roofs andwalls or respective building design.Key messages: 5.4 Vulnerability of cities and urban areas• Over the past, increasing urban land take and urbanisation have in many places increased thevulnerability of European cities to different climate impacts like heat waves, flooding or water scarcity.The impacts of extreme events like flooding at the river Elbe (2002) or in Copenhagen (2011)demonstrate this increased vulnerability.• In the future, ongoing urban land take, growth and concentration of population in cities, and an ageingpopulation contribute to further increasing the vulnerability of cities to climate change. It is, however,currently uncertain to which extent an intelligent urban design and urban management of individualcities can buffer these negative effects.222 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012