Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe ... - MemoFin.fr

Vulnerability to climate changeassets resemble those for infrastructures andsettlements: The high impacts in Belgium, northernFrance, Italy, Hungary, the Netherlands, Slovenia,Slovakia, and in parts of Denmark and Finland area consequence of the projected increase of floodhazards and the density of cultural sites in theseregions. On the other hand, cultural assets in somecentral European regions, especially in Poland,would benefit from decreasing flood hazards.The potential economic impacts of climatechange were analysed in regard to especiallyclimate‐sensitive economic sectors, namelyagriculture and forestry, energy production andconsumption as well as summer and winter tourism.Overall, the economic impacts of climate changeshow a clear south-north gradient: many centralEuropean regions and almost all Scandinavianregions are projected to have positive impacts,while almost all southern European regions wouldexperience negative impacts. This is largely due tothe economic dependency of large parts of southernEurope on (summer) tourism and agriculture. Bothsectors are projected to be negatively impactedby increasing temperatures and decreases inprecipitation, whereas the environmental conditionsfor agriculture in north-eastern Europe tend toimprove. In addition, energy demands would risein the south for cooling purposes and decrease inthe north due to less heating. Finally, the Alps as apremier tourist‐dependent region can be identifiedas an impact 'hotspot', which mainly results from theprojected decrease in snow cover days.The potential environmental impacts analysedrelate to protected natural areas, soil organiccarbon content, and the propensity of soil erosionand forest fires. The overall findings show that forthese environmental variables negative impactsare projected for almost all European regions.But the highest negative environmental impactsare expected in the north and south of Europe. Insouthern European regions the drier and hotterclimate is projected to increase the likelihood offorest fires and to also degrade soil conditionsin mountainous and coastal areas. The severeenvironmental impacts in northern Scandinaviaare mainly due to very large protected areas whereany climatic change (in this case warmer and wetterclimate) is considered as negatively affecting thespecific ecosystems under protection.A defining feature of ESPON Climate was theaggregation of sectoral impacts to aggregateimpacts, and the combination of aggregateimpacts with adaptive capacity to the potentialvulnerability (see Map 5.5). The aggregatepotential impacts of climate change exhibit thefollowing general patterns: coastal regions areprojected to be negatively affected because theirhigh concentrations of physical, economic, socialand cultural assets would face increasing floodhazards. Southern European regions are expectedto be negatively impacted because their hotter anddrier climates severely worsen conditions for theirpopulations, economies and natural environments.Highly negative impacts are therefore projectedfor southern Europe's agglomerations and touristresorts along the coasts. But inland mountainregions that are dependent on agriculture, forestryand winter and/or summer tourism would also behighly affected. In contrast, many central, easternand northern European regions would face virtuallyno negative impacts or would even experiencepositive impacts of climate change — mainly due tomarginal climatic changes or projected decreases inriver and flash floods.The adaptive capacity was defined by indicatorson knowledge and awareness, economic resourcesas well as technological, infrastructural andinstitutional capacity to adapt to climate change.Mapping the overall adaptive capacity yields analmost inverted pattern compared to the impactmap: Most regions for which climate change impactsare expected to be the most severe (mainly in thesouth) are in fact the least capable of adapting tothese impacts.Finally, combining aggregate impacts and adaptivecapacity results in the potential vulnerability toclimate change. The vulnerability map seems tomirror the territorial pattern of potential impacts,but with an even more pronounced south-northgradient. This is due to the high adaptive capacityin western European and Scandinavian regions,which partly compensates for the potential impactsprojected for these regions. On the other hand,in south-east Europe and in the Mediterraneanregion, where medium to high negative impacts areexpected, the ability to adapt to climate change isgenerally lower thus resulting in even higher levelsof vulnerability. The overall most vulnerable types ofregions are: 1) Coastal regions with high populationand high dependency on summer tourism, 2)mountain regions with high dependence on winterand summer tourism, and 3) agglomerations withhigh population density, where the problem ofurban heat might become most relevant.220 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012