Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe ... - MemoFin.fr

Vulnerability to climate change5 Vulnerability to climate change5.1 IntroductionThe vulnerability of natural and human systems inEurope to climate change and other stressors resultsfrom a series of factors. It is widely recognisedthat climate change is an additional stressor tosocio‐economic and demographic developmentsthat strongly determine the level of exposure ofEuropean population and infrastructure.This chapter presents information on thevulnerability of populations and regions toclimate change, considering where available otherrelevant developments, such as demographicand socio‐economic changes, technologicalinnovation, and consumption and settlementpatterns. The information stems from variousEU projects (ClimWatAdapt, PESETA-I, ESPONClimate, ClimateCost). In addition, this chapterpresents information on economic losses fromobserved weather and climate events (Munich RENatCatSERVICE and EM-DAT disaster databases).The information presented here is relevant forinforming European adaptation policy. However, itis not suitable to be presented as an EEA indicatordue to limited availability of observed data,uncertainty about the continuity of informationprovision, or information being presented in relative(unitless) units only.Note that the term vulnerability is used in ratherdifferent ways by various scientific disciplines,communities of practitioners, and decision-makersinvolved in climate change science and policy(see Section 1.7 for a more detailed discussion).Section 5.2 (based on ClimWatAdapt) and Section 5.3(based on ESPON Climate) apply the 'outcomeinterpretation' of vulnerability as defined in theIPCC AR4. In contrast, use of the term vulnerabilityin Section 5.4 (on cities and urban areas) is moreclosely related to that of the disaster risk community.5.2 River flooding, water scarcity anddroughtsSection 3.3 addressed climate change impactson inland waters in connection with, amongstothers, hydrological changes and river flow (wateravailability), and the past and projected occurrenceof river floods and water scarcity and droughts. Thissection briefly presents the projected socio‐economicconsequences of river floods and water scarcityand droughts, on the basis of the results of theClimWatAdapt project and other studies.The economic losses due to past floods in Europehave increased over the last decades (Barredo,2009) mainly as a consequence of socio‐economicfactors such as increased population and wealthKey messages: 5.2 River flooding, water scarcity and droughts• In large parts of Europe annual economic losses due to floods are projected to significantly increasein the future. Water stress is projected to worsen in the absence of sustainable approaches to themanagement of Europe's water resources.• Future socio‐economic developments, such as changes in land use and demography, will play a centralrole in determining Europe's vulnerability to floods, droughts and water scarcity, with climate changebeing an additional factor.• Decreasing water availability is projected to exacerbate water stress, especially in southern Europe.Increasing irrigation efficiency can reduce irrigation water withdrawals to some degree but will not besufficient to compensate for climate-induced increases in water stress.• Environmental flows, which are important for the healthy maintenance of aquatic ecosystems, arethreatened by climate change impacts and socio‐economic developments.Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012213