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Climate impacts on socio-economic systems and healthand wind) to assess human comfort for generaloutdoor activities. The TCI has been partly validatedfor the Mediterranean countries. Tourism activitiescalling for specific climate conditions are notspecifically covered by the 'standard' TCI.Changes in the TCI are used in several new studiesthat investigate climate change effects on tourism(Amelung and Moreno, 2009, 2011; Ciscar et al.,2009). Map 4.17 compares the TCI for baseline andprojected future climate conditions in Europe in allseasons. According to these maps, climate resourcesin the reference period are generally best in southernEurope (left column). Over this century, climatechange is projected to shift the latitudinal band offavourable climate northward, thereby improvingclimate resources in northern and central Europe inmost seasons (central column). Southern Europe'stourism suitability drops strikingly in the summerholiday months; this drop is partially compensatedfor by improvements in other seasons (rightcolumn). Further detailed analysis of the change inthe number of acceptable, good and excellent daysper month for eight European regions is available inthe original study (Perch-Nielsen et al., 2010).The projected decline in the suitability of theMediterranean for tourism during the key summermonths could trigger shifts in the major flowsof tourism within the EU and have importantsocio‐economic consequences for regions wheretourism is a key contributor to the economy. Theeconomic effects of climate change on tourismdepend very much on the question whether holidayseasons in Europe remain fixed or would possiblyshift. With a more flexible timing of travelling,climate change could benefit the tourist industry inthe Mediterranean by evening out demand, reducingthe summer peak while increasing occupancy inthe spring and autumn, which become climaticallymore suitable. Without such adjustments, however,the Mediterranean tourist industry is projected to bestrongly negatively affected by climate change.potential travellers from northern Europe (Ruttyand Scott, 2010). The study suggests that only inthe medium (2046–2065) and long term (2080–2099)would destinations gradually become 'unacceptablyhot' during the peak summer months for this targetgroup. It also indicates that in the long term thereis the potential for a much longer warm weathertourism season as the selected destinations would nolonger be considered as 'unacceptably cool' duringthe Mediterranean's current shoulder season ofspring and autumn.It is important to note that several factors, whichare difficult to model, might alter these generalfindings. The combination of adverse circumstancescould play a crucial role in shifting future touristicdestinations and seasonality patterns. A plausibleexample could be summer heat waves in theMediterranean exacerbated by water supplyproblems due to maximum demand coinciding withminimum resources availability. Changes in urbantourism patterns might also have a knock-on effecton summer and beach tourism. There might also bea shift towards a greater level of domestic tourismin regions with increasing attractiveness. Finally, theEuropean tourism industry is also highly sensitive tothe economic situation in Europe and globally.Water supply problems in tourist resorts arebecoming increasingly common in Europe. Forexample, the Aegean islands are subject to morethan 15 million overnight stays per year and onsome islands the summer population is 30 timesgreater than the winter population. Demand forwater has risen markedly and is now met throughwater importation from the mainland by tanker, anddesalination (Gikas and Tchobanoglous, 2009). Theseproblems would be exacerbated in a future climatewith hotter and longer summers.The CIRCE project ('Climate Change and ImpactResearch: the Mediterranean Environment')addressed to some extent the vulnerability of coastaltourism in the south of Europe (Magnan et al., 2012).The findings suggest that projected climate changewould decrease tourism flows from north to southof Europe and increase flows within the north ofEurope. Another study used a survey to elicit theclimatic preferences for summer tourism of 10 beachand urban destinations to the Mediterranean of210 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012
Climate impacts on socio-economic systems and healthMap 4.17Projected changes in the tourism climatic index for all seasonsNote:Tourism climatic index (TCI) for four seasons in the present period (1961–1990, left), under future climate change(2071–2100, middle), and change between present and future period (right). Future climate conditions are based on theSRES A2 scenario and derived from the ensemble mean of five regional climate models that participated in the PRUDENCEproject.Source: Perch-Nielsen et al., 2010. Reprinted with permission.Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012211
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EEA Report No 12/2012Climate change
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ContentsContentsAcknowledgements...
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ContentsMap 4.1 Change in the numbe
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ContentsList of boxesBox 1.1 The IP
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AcknowledgementsAblain, Gilles Larn
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AcknowledgementsComments from the E
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Executive summaryThe causes of the
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Technical summaryTable TS.1 Observe
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Technical summaryTable TS.1 Observe
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Technical summaryMountain areasThe
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Technical summaryTable TS.2 Key obs
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IntroductionIt should be noted that
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IntroductionBox 1.1The IPCC Fifth A
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Introduction1. develop and improve
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Introduction1.4.3 Overview of main
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IntroductionThe next generation of
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Introductionimmigration will be low
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Introduction7. projection of a clim
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IntroductionThe term risk is also i
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Changes in the climate system2 Chan
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Changes in the climate systemdammin
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Changes in the climate system2.1.4
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Changes in the climate systemSelect
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Changes in the climate systemPast t
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Changes in the climate systemEurope
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Changes in the climate systemSevera
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Changes in the climate systemMap 2.
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Changes in the climate systemclosel
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Changes in the climate system2.3 Cr
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Changes in the climate systemPast t
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Changes in the climate systemof up
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Changes in the climate systemFigure
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Changes in the climate system2.3.5
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Changes in the climate systemBox 2.
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Climate impacts on environmental sy
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Climate impacts on socio-economic s
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Page 240 and 241: Indicator and data needsA key polic
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References19 December 2009. UNFCCC,
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ReferencesIsaksen, K., Sollid, J. L
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Referencesfür Hydrologie und Limno
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Referencescirculation models. Journ
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Referencesin Geophysics 32(4-5), 58
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ReferencesVermeer, M. and Rahmstorf
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ReferencesDevelopment. http://ec.eu
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ReferencesMooij, W. M., Hulsmann, S
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ReferencesAraújo, M. B., Thuiller,
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ReferencesPeninsula (1952-2004). Ec
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ReferencesMenzel, A., Sparks, T. H.
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ReferencesUrban, M. C., Tewksbury,
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ReferencesM., Palosuo, T., Bellamy,
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ReferencesApplied Climatology 74, 4
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Referencesepidemiologic evidence. E
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ReferencesEnvironmental Health Pers
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Referencestemperature. Epidemiology
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ReferencesEEA (2012) Annual Europea
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ReferencesChapter 5:Vulnerability t
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ReferencesSchool. http://www.jbs.ca
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European Environment AgencyClimate
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