Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe ... - MemoFin.fr

Climate impacts on socio-economic systems and healthand wind) to assess human comfort for generaloutdoor activities. The TCI has been partly validatedfor the Mediterranean countries. Tourism activitiescalling for specific climate conditions are notspecifically covered by the 'standard' TCI.Changes in the TCI are used in several new studiesthat investigate climate change effects on tourism(Amelung and Moreno, 2009, 2011; Ciscar et al.,2009). Map 4.17 compares the TCI for baseline andprojected future climate conditions in Europe in allseasons. According to these maps, climate resourcesin the reference period are generally best in southernEurope (left column). Over this century, climatechange is projected to shift the latitudinal band offavourable climate northward, thereby improvingclimate resources in northern and central Europe inmost seasons (central column). Southern Europe'stourism suitability drops strikingly in the summerholiday months; this drop is partially compensatedfor by improvements in other seasons (rightcolumn). Further detailed analysis of the change inthe number of acceptable, good and excellent daysper month for eight European regions is available inthe original study (Perch-Nielsen et al., 2010).The projected decline in the suitability of theMediterranean for tourism during the key summermonths could trigger shifts in the major flowsof tourism within the EU and have importantsocio‐economic consequences for regions wheretourism is a key contributor to the economy. Theeconomic effects of climate change on tourismdepend very much on the question whether holidayseasons in Europe remain fixed or would possiblyshift. With a more flexible timing of travelling,climate change could benefit the tourist industry inthe Mediterranean by evening out demand, reducingthe summer peak while increasing occupancy inthe spring and autumn, which become climaticallymore suitable. Without such adjustments, however,the Mediterranean tourist industry is projected to bestrongly negatively affected by climate change.potential travellers from northern Europe (Ruttyand Scott, 2010). The study suggests that only inthe medium (2046–2065) and long term (2080–2099)would destinations gradually become 'unacceptablyhot' during the peak summer months for this targetgroup. It also indicates that in the long term thereis the potential for a much longer warm weathertourism season as the selected destinations would nolonger be considered as 'unacceptably cool' duringthe Mediterranean's current shoulder season ofspring and autumn.It is important to note that several factors, whichare difficult to model, might alter these generalfindings. The combination of adverse circumstancescould play a crucial role in shifting future touristicdestinations and seasonality patterns. A plausibleexample could be summer heat waves in theMediterranean exacerbated by water supplyproblems due to maximum demand coinciding withminimum resources availability. Changes in urbantourism patterns might also have a knock-on effecton summer and beach tourism. There might also bea shift towards a greater level of domestic tourismin regions with increasing attractiveness. Finally, theEuropean tourism industry is also highly sensitive tothe economic situation in Europe and globally.Water supply problems in tourist resorts arebecoming increasingly common in Europe. Forexample, the Aegean islands are subject to morethan 15 million overnight stays per year and onsome islands the summer population is 30 timesgreater than the winter population. Demand forwater has risen markedly and is now met throughwater importation from the mainland by tanker, anddesalination (Gikas and Tchobanoglous, 2009). Theseproblems would be exacerbated in a future climatewith hotter and longer summers.The CIRCE project ('Climate Change and ImpactResearch: the Mediterranean Environment')addressed to some extent the vulnerability of coastaltourism in the south of Europe (Magnan et al., 2012).The findings suggest that projected climate changewould decrease tourism flows from north to southof Europe and increase flows within the north ofEurope. Another study used a survey to elicit theclimatic preferences for summer tourism of 10 beachand urban destinations to the Mediterranean of210 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012