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Climate impacts on socio-economic systems and healthspots in eastern Europe and Scandinavia largelycaused by hydrological phenomena and theirconsequences. The effects on roads are more evenlydistributed across Europe with somewhat highercosts in mountain areas and Scandinavia. Thehigh vulnerability of road and rail infrastructurein mountain areas can be explained by theusually expensive infrastructures, while the highvulnerability of rail is due to the more complexreaction mechanisms in emergency cases. Projectionsfor the period 2040–2050 (based on predictions ofextremes taken from the EWENT project) suggestthat rail will face the highest cost increase, withparticular emphasis on the British Islands, centralEurope and Scandinavia, mostly due to increases inhydrological extremes.The EWENT project assessed average annual costsdue to weather extremes for the current (1998–2010)and a future (2041–2070) time period. Costs compriseaccident costs, time costs, infrastructure damage andmaintenance, and effects on freight and logistics.EWENT estimates costs from extreme weatherevents in the baseline period of more than EUR15 billion, which is dominated by the costs of roadaccidents. This estimate is more than four timesabove the estimates of direct and indirect costs fromthe WEATHER project. The main reasons for thisdifference are a wider definition of extreme eventsin EWENT, inclusion of externalities (accidents), andthe explicit consideration of non‐motorised travel andlogistics among other aspects, which were omitted bythe WEATHER project.experience negative impacts throughout Europe.Negative impacts across all transport modes areprojected for Scandinavia, the British Isles, France,and Eastern Europe. These projections are largelyconsistent with those of the WEATHER projectdiscussed above.EWENT also assessed changes in the overall costs ofextreme events on the transport sector. These costsare projected to decrease substantially in the futurebut this decrease is driven primarily by reducedcosts of road accidents due to improved vehiclesafety technologies. Follow-on costs on freight andlogistics are expected to increase substantially butthis increase is primarily driven by the projectedincrease in freight volumes. In summary, the costsof weather extremes on the transport sector areexpected to be influenced more strongly by changesin technology and transport demand than bychanges in weather extremes.The overall risks of extreme weather wereassessed in EWENT for EU-27 Member States.A risk indicator based on probabilistic weatherhazards and resilience and vulnerability of eachMember State revealed that countries with poorquality infrastructures, dense traffic volumes andpopulation, and low income levels are usually mostat risk and will face the severest consequences(Molarius et al., 2012).According to results from EWENT, different regionsin Europe will respond to future changes in differentways. In Northern Europe, cold spells will becomeless frequent but the amount of snow (especiallyfor the thresholds of deeper snow coverage) willincrease. Continental climate in Eastern Europewill continue to warm up and this results in lesscold spells and snow. Similar developments willbe observed in Central Europe and the Alpineregion. In the maritime region the main threat is thepotential increase in strong winds. This will also beobserved in the Mediterranean region, where alsothe heat waves are becoming more prolonged by2050 (Leviäkangas et al., 2011; Vajda et al., 2011).Road transport is projected to experience beneficialand adverse impacts, with somewhat complexregional patterns. Rail transport experiences mostlynegative impacts, with the exception of the IberianPeninsula; the most severe impacts are projected forthe British Isles and France. Aviation is projected to208 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012
Climate impacts on socio-economic systems and health4.7 Tourism4.7.1 OverviewThe tourism sector accounts for approximately5 % of the total workforce in Europe. In total, theEuropean tourism industry generates more than 5 %of EU GDP, and this figure has been steadily rising(ECORYS, 2009). The Mediterranean region is theworld's most popular holiday destination. It attractssome 120 million visitors from northern Europe eachyear, the largest international flow of tourists on theglobe, and while there they spend more than EUR100 billion each year (Amelung and Moreno, 2009).International tourism is estimated to contributeabout 10 % of GDP and employment in countriesaround the Mediterranean Sea (Magnan et al., 2012).In popular tourist regions in Greece, Spain, France,Italy and Portugal both the share of GDP andemployment is far above these values.In Europe tourism shows a strong seasonality, witha peak in the summer season (July–September)and generally lower levels of activity in the winterseason (October–March). Climate both in tourismsource and destination regions is an importantresource for many types of summer and wintertourism, and it is a key factor for the provenanceof tourists and their destination. There are largeregional differences within Europe and amongseasons as to attractiveness for tourism. At present,the predominant tourist flows in summer are fromnorth to south, in particular to the coastal zone.The knowledge base on climate change and tourismin Europe is continuously being expanded, forexample through research projects or EuropeanTerritorial Cooperation projects, such as AdaptAlp('Adaptation in the Alpine Arc'), ClimAlpTour('Climate Change and its impact on tourism in theAlpine Space'), CLISP ('Climate Change Adaptationby Spatial Planning in the Alpine Space'), BaltAdapt('Adaptation in the Baltic Sea region'), ACCESS('Arctic Climate Change, Economy and Society')and ESPON Climate (see Section 5.3). Theseprojects strengthen the information availableto stakeholders, for example by analysing casestudies and developing tools supporting policyand decision‐making. More information aboutthese projects is available on the European ClimateAdaptation Platform ( 72 ).There are obviously different types of tourismactivities depending, amongst others, on thelocation, season and personal preferences. Thissection distinguishes between 'general (summer)tourism' (based largely on the Tourism ClimaticIndex (TCI)) and 'winter sport tourism' (basedlargely on Greiving et al., 2011; Davoudi et al., 2012).None of the information is presented as an EEAindicator.4.7.2 General tourismAn important foundation for many recent studieson the relationship between climate and tourismwas the development of the TCI. This index is acomposite measure for systematically assessingthe climatic elements that are most relevant to thequality of the tourism experience for the 'average'summer tourist. It uses a weighted aggregate ofseveral climate variables (i.e. maximum and meandaily temperature, humidity, precipitation, sunshineKey messages: 4.7 Tourism• Climatic suitability for general tourism activities is currently best in southern Europe. The regions mostfavourable for general tourism are projected to shift northwards as a result of climate change. Thetouristic attractiveness in northern and central Europe would increase in most seasons. Suitability ofsouthern Europe for tourism would decline markedly during the key summer months but improves inother seasons.• The widespread reductions in snow cover projected over the 21st century will negatively affect thewinter sports industry in many regions. Regions close to the low elevation limit for winter sport aremost sensitive to the projected warming.• The projected climatic changes are expected to shift the major flows of tourism in Europe and can havesubstantial consequences for regions where tourism is an important economic sector. The magnitude ofthe economic impacts is strongly determined by non‐climatic factors, such as the ability of tourists toadjust the timing of their holidays.( 72 ) Climate-ADAPT (http://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu).Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012209
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EEA Report No 12/2012Climate change
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ContentsContentsAcknowledgements...
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ContentsMap 4.1 Change in the numbe
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ContentsList of boxesBox 1.1 The IP
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AcknowledgementsAblain, Gilles Larn
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AcknowledgementsComments from the E
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Executive summaryThe causes of the
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Technical summaryTable TS.1 Observe
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Technical summaryTable TS.1 Observe
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Technical summaryMountain areasThe
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Technical summaryTable TS.2 Key obs
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IntroductionIt should be noted that
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IntroductionBox 1.1The IPCC Fifth A
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Introduction1. develop and improve
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Introduction1.4.3 Overview of main
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IntroductionThe next generation of
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Introductionimmigration will be low
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Introduction7. projection of a clim
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IntroductionThe term risk is also i
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Changes in the climate system2 Chan
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Changes in the climate systemdammin
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Changes in the climate system2.1.4
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Changes in the climate systemEurope
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ReferencesEEA (2011a) Mapping the i
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References19 December 2009. UNFCCC,
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ReferencesIsaksen, K., Sollid, J. L
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Referencesfür Hydrologie und Limno
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Referencescirculation models. Journ
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Referencesin Geophysics 32(4-5), 58
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ReferencesVermeer, M. and Rahmstorf
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ReferencesDevelopment. http://ec.eu
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ReferencesMooij, W. M., Hulsmann, S
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ReferencesAraújo, M. B., Thuiller,
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ReferencesPeninsula (1952-2004). Ec
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ReferencesMenzel, A., Sparks, T. H.
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ReferencesUrban, M. C., Tewksbury,
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ReferencesApplied Climatology 74, 4
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ReferencesEnvironmental Health Pers
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Referencestemperature. Epidemiology
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ReferencesEEA (2012) Annual Europea
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ReferencesChapter 5:Vulnerability t
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ReferencesSchool. http://www.jbs.ca
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European Environment AgencyClimate
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