Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe ... - MemoFin.fr

Climate impacts on socio-economic systems and healthspots in eastern Europe and Scandinavia largelycaused by hydrological phenomena and theirconsequences. The effects on roads are more evenlydistributed across Europe with somewhat highercosts in mountain areas and Scandinavia. Thehigh vulnerability of road and rail infrastructurein mountain areas can be explained by theusually expensive infrastructures, while the highvulnerability of rail is due to the more complexreaction mechanisms in emergency cases. Projectionsfor the period 2040–2050 (based on predictions ofextremes taken from the EWENT project) suggestthat rail will face the highest cost increase, withparticular emphasis on the British Islands, centralEurope and Scandinavia, mostly due to increases inhydrological extremes.The EWENT project assessed average annual costsdue to weather extremes for the current (1998–2010)and a future (2041–2070) time period. Costs compriseaccident costs, time costs, infrastructure damage andmaintenance, and effects on freight and logistics.EWENT estimates costs from extreme weatherevents in the baseline period of more than EUR15 billion, which is dominated by the costs of roadaccidents. This estimate is more than four timesabove the estimates of direct and indirect costs fromthe WEATHER project. The main reasons for thisdifference are a wider definition of extreme eventsin EWENT, inclusion of externalities (accidents), andthe explicit consideration of non‐motorised travel andlogistics among other aspects, which were omitted bythe WEATHER project.experience negative impacts throughout Europe.Negative impacts across all transport modes areprojected for Scandinavia, the British Isles, France,and Eastern Europe. These projections are largelyconsistent with those of the WEATHER projectdiscussed above.EWENT also assessed changes in the overall costs ofextreme events on the transport sector. These costsare projected to decrease substantially in the futurebut this decrease is driven primarily by reducedcosts of road accidents due to improved vehiclesafety technologies. Follow-on costs on freight andlogistics are expected to increase substantially butthis increase is primarily driven by the projectedincrease in freight volumes. In summary, the costsof weather extremes on the transport sector areexpected to be influenced more strongly by changesin technology and transport demand than bychanges in weather extremes.The overall risks of extreme weather wereassessed in EWENT for EU-27 Member States.A risk indicator based on probabilistic weatherhazards and resilience and vulnerability of eachMember State revealed that countries with poorquality infrastructures, dense traffic volumes andpopulation, and low income levels are usually mostat risk and will face the severest consequences(Molarius et al., 2012).According to results from EWENT, different regionsin Europe will respond to future changes in differentways. In Northern Europe, cold spells will becomeless frequent but the amount of snow (especiallyfor the thresholds of deeper snow coverage) willincrease. Continental climate in Eastern Europewill continue to warm up and this results in lesscold spells and snow. Similar developments willbe observed in Central Europe and the Alpineregion. In the maritime region the main threat is thepotential increase in strong winds. This will also beobserved in the Mediterranean region, where alsothe heat waves are becoming more prolonged by2050 (Leviäkangas et al., 2011; Vajda et al., 2011).Road transport is projected to experience beneficialand adverse impacts, with somewhat complexregional patterns. Rail transport experiences mostlynegative impacts, with the exception of the IberianPeninsula; the most severe impacts are projected forthe British Isles and France. Aviation is projected to208 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012