Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe ... - MemoFin.fr

Climate impacts on socio-economic systems and health4.6.2 Inland water transportThe FP7 project ECCONET ( 69 ) assesses the impactof climate change on inland waterway transport(IWT) as well as possible adaptation measures. Theproject uses the Rhine–Main–Danube corridor asa case study with special emphasis on low watersituations, which are most problematic for IWT.Over a period of 20 years, the average annualwelfare loss due to low water levels on the Rhinewas calculated at EUR 28 million; the 2003 extremelow-water year was associated with a welfare lossof EUR 91 million (Jonkeren et al., 2007). Otherclimate-related changes, such as high water levels,changed ice formation or a change in visibility dueto fog, are assessed only briefly in ECCONET.Results based on projections from differentclimate models show no significant effects onlow flow conditions for the Rhine canal and theRhine‐Main‐Danube canal until 2050. The upperDanube would experience a moderate increasein low flow conditions. The trend towardsdrier summers and wetter winters will gain inimportance towards the end of the 21st century.Disposition for ice formation on both the Rhine andDanube will most likely decrease over the whole21st century (Nilson et al., 2012).Simulations with the NODUS transport model(Jonkeren et al., 2011) suggest that projectedclimate change until 2050 is unlikely to impactthe Rhine hydrology strong enough to induceany significant shift in modal shares. The studyestimates that a 'dry' year leads to approximately a6–7 % increase in total transport cost compared to a'wet' year, but these variations are already presentunder the current climate conditions and will notbe influenced heavily by climate change until the2050s. Low water levels could also trigger furtherimpacts due to interruptions of coal supply topower stations (Rothstein and Halbig, 2010).4.6.3 Impacts of changes in weather extremesTwo FP7 projects assessed the impacts of climatechange and extreme weather conditions ontransport systems: WEATHER ( 70 ) and EWENT ( 71 ).The WEATHER project aimed at identifying risks,economic impacts, and suitable crises managementand transport adaptation strategies for all modesof transport across Europe. The EWENT projectlooked more deeply into long-term weatherscenarios and the sensitivities of transport modesby following a standard risk assessment process.Note that the definition of extremes stronglyvaries between approaches. In both projects it hadto be acknowledged that there is a lag of reliablestatistical data for a sound vulnerability assessmentof transport modes in the European region.The WEATHER project considered the followingextreme events: hot and cold spells, floods,landslides, wild fires and storms. Data weregathered through studies of various weatherphenomena on transport in North America,Australia, Europe and New Zealand, a review ofover 1 000 damage reports for 6 countries, andan assessment of available transport operatordata for some European transport networks. Thecombined results have been extrapolated to eightEuropean climate zones using meteorologicalindicators as well as infrastructure coverage andtransport performance indicators. The standardcost values were considered specifically for publictransport services, time losses and safety impactsfor transport users. In addition, the assessment ofindirect costs imposed by transport disruptions onother economic sectors was estimated.For the assessment period 1998 to 2010, the totalcosts borne by the transport sector (damages,repair and maintenance costs of infrastructures,vehicle damages, increased system operationcosts, etc.) across all weather phenomena wereestimated at EUR 2.5 billion per year. The indirectcosts of transport disruptions on other sectorswere estimated at EUR 1 billion per year. Railis the most affected transport mode in relationto passenger and tonne kilometres, with hot( 69 ) See http://www.ecconet.eu.( 70 ) See http://www.weather-project.eu.( 71 ) See http://ewent.vtt.fi.Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012207