Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe ... - MemoFin.fr

Climate impacts on socio-economic systems and healthBox 4.2Case study — UK Climate Change Risk Assessment for the energy sectorIn January 2012 the United Kingdom published its climate change risk assessment (CCRA), which includedin‐depth analysis of the risks to 11 sectors, one of which was energy. The CCRA considered different 'tiers' ofrisk; Tier 1 identifies a broad range of potential impacts, and Tier 2 provides a more detailed analysis, includingquantification and monetisation.The topics considered as Tier 2 include:• flooding of energy infrastructure;• flooding of power stations;• demand for cooling;• heat-related damage/disruption;• water abstraction.These topics were considered as a high priority because they are considered relatively urgent, with the potentialfor large-scale impact, and with a high likelihood of being affected by rising temperatures and other climaticvariables.Outputs from the analysis include:• an increase in power stations 'at risk' of flooding, from 19 today to 26 in the 2020s, to 38 in the 2080s;• an increase in building cooling-demand needs and electricity demand of about 4 % annually;• a possible risk to power generation from reduced future availability of abstracted water;• a possible effect of increasing temperature (and other indirect factors) could potentially reduce overall thermalpower generation efficiency.4.6 Transport services andinfrastructure4.6.1 OverviewLand-based transport infrastructure and operationare sensitive to changes in climate, including snowand rainfall patterns, coastal and inland flooding,wind storms and heat waves. In the far north,semi‐permanent frost structures may becomeunusable for larger portions of the year. Water-basedtransport is particularly sensitive to river droughtsand changes in ice cover of oceans and inlandwaters. Some impacts of climate change may bepositive, such as a decrease in the ice cover of oceansand rivers, but most of them will be negative (Koetseand Rietveld, 2009). In the Arctic, climate changeis opening up new transport lanes and enables theexploitation of both natural and mineral resources(see Section 2.3.6 on Arctic sea ice). While this canbe of benefit for the regional and global economy, itwill also have repercussions on the Arctic's fragileenvironment if not managed with the utmost care(EC, 2012).Table 4.5 provides an overview of potential impactsof climate change on transport infrastructure.Key messages: 4.6 Transport services and infrastructure• Data on past climate-related impacts on transport is restricted to individual extreme events, andattribution to climate change is generally not possible.• Information on the future risks of climate change for transport in Europe has improved recently dueto several EU research projects focusing on climate change, extreme weather events and inland watertransport.• Climate change is projected to have both beneficial and adverse impacts on transport, depending on theregion and the transport mode.• Available projections suggest that rail transport will face the highest percentage increase in costs fromextreme weather events. The British Islands, central Europe/France, eastern Europe and Scandinaviaare projected to be most adversely impacted.Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012205