Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe ... - MemoFin.fr

Climate impacts on socio-economic systems and healthTable 4.4Overview of studies on future electricity demand due to climate changeStudy Region Date ofprojection(Pilli-Sihvolaet al., 2010)(Mirasgediset al., 2007)(Eskeland andMideksa, 2010)(Mima et al.,2012)Germany, Spain,France, theNetherlands andFinlandAnnual change in electricity demand2015–2050 Decreases in northern countries, increase in Spain;overall neutralPeakdemand+ 2 % to+ 4 %, SpainGreece 2070–2100 + 3 % to + 6 % + 13 %, JuneEurope 2100 Small, but disguises large regional variations + 20 %,TurkeyEurope 2010–2100 Increase of 12 % by 2050 rising to 24 % by 2100(EU‐27) due to electricity for cooling demand abovefuture baseline (A1B scenario), reduced to 8 % acrossperiod for E1 mitigation scenario. Strong regionalvariations, with greater increases in southern EuropeFossil-powered and nuclear electricity generatorsare sensitive to a reduced availability and increasedtemperature of cooling water, and to increased airtemperature, which reduces their efficiency (WorldBank, 2011, p. 33). Nuclear plants are particularlysusceptible in this regard (Linnerud et al., 2011;Rübbelke and Vögele, 2011).The literature on change in output from electricitygenerators due to climate change is rather sparse.Considerable reductions in river flow during the2004–2005 drought across the Iberian Peninsula,resulted in a 40 % drop in hydroelectric powerproduction, which had to be replaced by electricityfrom thermoelectric power plants (García-Herreraet al., 2007). Similarly in 2005, Portugal had tocompensate for low hydro-electrical production byusing fossil fuel worth EUR 182 million, with anadditional expense of EUR 28 million to purchaseCO 2emissions licenses. The total cost was finallyestimated at EUR 883 million, equivalent to 0.6 % ofGDP (Demuth, 2009).A recent study estimated changes in the capacityof thermoelectric power plants in Europe due tochanges in temperature and river flow based on amulti-model GCM ensemble (Vliet et al., 2012). Thisstudy projects decreases in the capacity of powerplants due to climate change by 6–19 % in the 2040s,compared to the 1980s control period dependingon cooling system type and climate scenario.Increases are projected for most of Scandinavia anddecreases for the rest of Europe. A study examiningthe impacts of climate change on hydropower andnuclear electricity output identified Austria, Franceand Switzerland as particularly vulnerable countries(Rübbelke and Vögele, 2011, p. 14).The conclusions from the stress test applied toEuropean nuclear power plants in the aftermathof the Fukushima accident, with respect to theadequacy of preparedness of these plants in theevent of natural hazards (earthquakes, flooding)and extreme weather events were that furtherimprovements can be made, particularly in thecase of preparedness for extreme weather events(EC, 2011; ENSREG, 2012). The International AtomicEnergy Agency (IAEA) has developed guidelinesthat represent good practice to increase robustnessagainst natural hazards and extreme events thatare expected to be implemented in a number ofEuropean countries as a result of the stress test(IAEA, 2011). Renewable electricity generatorsare most susceptible to changes in precipitationwhich affect the output of hydropower plants, andpotentially to extreme storm gusts which mightdamage wind turbines. The performance of solarphotovoltaic modules is also reduced in hot weather.The ClimWatAdapt project assessed changes inseasonal water availability as a proxy for risks tohydropower potential, with the largest reductionsshown in many regions of southern Europe.However, the study could not quantify the risksto electricity production because it did not includeinformation on dams, reservoirs and hydropowerstations (Flörke et al., 2011). A study by theDirectorate-General for Energy (DG ENER) assessedadaptation costs for nuclear power stations andother energy infrastructure based on stakeholderconsultation (Rademaekers et al., 2011).The United Kingdom has performed a national‐levelclimate change risk assessment of the energy sector(see Box 4.2). In addition, several localised studiesassessed potential climate change impacts onindividual power stations or water catchments.204 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012