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Climate impacts on socio-economic systems and healthData quality and data needsData for calculation of HDD have been collected byEurostat for decades; this indicator can thereforebe considered as very reliable. The same dataused could also be used for the calculation ofcooling degree days. Such an indicator is currentlynot available even though it would be highlypolicy-relevant and could be calculated withlittle additional effort. It should be noted that theindicator HDD is a purely physical metric, whichdoes not consider differences in technical, social andeconomic factors (housing quality, behaviour, prices,etc.) between regions and their development overtime.Information on past and projected impacts ofclimate change on electricity demand and electricitygenerator output is very fragmented. The signalof long-term climate change may be difficult todetect due to concurrent changes in technical,social, behavioural and economic aspects, whereasthe effects of extreme events are generally easier todetect.4.5.2 Heating degree daystherefore a proxy for the energy demand for spaceheating, and hence an indicator for possible changesin overall energy use directly related to climatechange.An increase in cooling demand would off-setin part or completely the gains from a reducedenergy demand for space heating and the effectsresulting from a reduction in heating demand. Whileheating is delivered to end users in different ways(individual boilers fuelled by oil, gas, and coal, andelectricity and district heating), cooling is deliveredcurrently almost exclusively through electricity.As a result, a given increase in cooling demand isgenerally associated with higher costs, a higherincrease in primary energy demand and largerimpacts on the peak capacity of supply networksthan the same decrease in heating demand.Past trendsThe number of HDD has decreased by 13 % overthe last 3 decades, yet with substantial interannualvariation (Figure 4.9). Map 4.16 shows that thedecrease in HDD has not been homogeneous acrossRelevanceA 'Heating Degree Day' (HDD) is a proxy forthe energy demand needed to heat a home or abusiness; it is derived from measurements of outsideair temperature. The heating requirements for agiven structure at a specific location are consideredto be to some degree proportional to the number ofHDD at that location. However, they also depend ona large number of other factors, notably in relation toincome levels, building design, energy systems andbehavioural aspects. HDD are defined relative to abase temperature ( 67 ), the outside temperature belowwhich a building is assumed to need heating.Space heating is responsible for a large componentof European energy use, so a decrease in the useof space heating has the potential to lead to asignificant decrease in overall energy use. There aremany contributory factors to heating demand, suchas the energy performance of the building envelope,the type of heating system available, occupantbehaviour and energy prices. However, the externaltemperature is the only component which is directlyaffected by climate change. The number of HDD isFigure 4.9Heating degree days3 8003 6003 4003 2003 0002 800198019821984Source: Eurostat, 2012.Trend in heating degree days inthe EU-27 (1980–2009)Heating degree daysLinear trend198619881990199219941996199820002002200420062008( 67 ) Eurostat calculates HDD as (18 °C — Tm) x d if Tm is lower than or equal to 15 °C (heating threshold) and zero if Tm is greaterthan 15 °C, where Tm is the mean (Tmin + Tmax/2) outdoor temperature over a given period of d days.202 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012
Climate impacts on socio-economic systems and healthMap 4.16 Trend in heating degree days in the EU-27 (1980–2009)-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°50°60°70°Trend in heating degreedays (1980–2009)HDD/year< – 2560°– 24.99 to – 20– 19.99 to – 1550°– 14.99 to – 10– 9.99 to – 5No dataOutside coverage50°40°40°0 500 1000 1500 km0°10°20°30°40°Source: Eurostat, 2012.Europe. The absolute decrease has been largest inthe cool regions in northern Europe where heatingdemand is highest.ProjectionsTemperatures in Europe are projected to continue toincrease. Hence, the trend of decreasing numbers ofHDD is very likely to continue, and most likely toaccelerate. For example, the heat demand for spaceheating in 2050 was projected to decrease by 25 % inthe United Kingdom (Flörke et al., 2011), and by 9 %in the EU ( 68 ).4.5.3 Electricity demand and productionA number of studies have modelled future electricitydemand in a changing climate. Approximately 30 %of Europe's domestic space heating requirementis provided by electricity, but with substantialvariation across countries (Mideksa and Kallbekken,2010). Cooling is almost exclusively provided byelectricity. Therefore, changes in heating demand,and even more so in cooling demand, will directlyinfluence electricity demand.No systematic analysis is available on the relationshipbetween past climate and electricity demand. Anumber of studies have looked at projected trendsfor different European countries, and the results aresummarised in Table 4.4. The variation in projecteddemand for electricity is usually a result of theselection of climate change scenario. It is worth notingthat an increased electricity demand peak in thesummer would coincide with increased difficulty inobtaining sufficient cooling water for thermal powergeneration during very hot conditions (Förster andLilliestam, 2009).( 68 ) Pre-publication of results from the ClimateCost project (http://www.climatecost.cc).Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012203
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EEA Report No 12/2012Climate change
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ContentsContentsAcknowledgements...
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ContentsMap 4.1 Change in the numbe
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ContentsList of boxesBox 1.1 The IP
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AcknowledgementsAblain, Gilles Larn
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AcknowledgementsComments from the E
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Executive summaryThe causes of the
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Technical summaryTable TS.1 Observe
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Technical summaryTable TS.1 Observe
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Technical summaryMountain areasThe
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Technical summaryTable TS.2 Key obs
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IntroductionIt should be noted that
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IntroductionBox 1.1The IPCC Fifth A
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Introduction1. develop and improve
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Introduction1.4.3 Overview of main
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IntroductionThe next generation of
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Introductionimmigration will be low
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Introduction7. projection of a clim
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IntroductionThe term risk is also i
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Changes in the climate system2 Chan
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Changes in the climate systemdammin
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Changes in the climate system2.1.4
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Changes in the climate systemSelect
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Changes in the climate systemPast t
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Changes in the climate systemEurope
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Changes in the climate systemSevera
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Changes in the climate systemMap 2.
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Changes in the climate systemclosel
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Changes in the climate system2.3 Cr
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Changes in the climate systemPast t
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Changes in the climate systemof up
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Changes in the climate systemFigure
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Changes in the climate system2.3.5
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Changes in the climate systemBox 2.
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Abbreviations and acronymsProject a
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Referenceset al. (2010) DEMIFER: De
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ReferencesNovember to 11 December 2
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ReferencesEEA (2011a) Mapping the i
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References19 December 2009. UNFCCC,
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ReferencesIsaksen, K., Sollid, J. L
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Referencesfür Hydrologie und Limno
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Referencescirculation models. Journ
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Referencesin Geophysics 32(4-5), 58
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ReferencesVermeer, M. and Rahmstorf
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ReferencesDevelopment. http://ec.eu
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ReferencesMooij, W. M., Hulsmann, S
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ReferencesAraújo, M. B., Thuiller,
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ReferencesPeninsula (1952-2004). Ec
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ReferencesMenzel, A., Sparks, T. H.
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ReferencesUrban, M. C., Tewksbury,
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ReferencesM., Palosuo, T., Bellamy,
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ReferencesApplied Climatology 74, 4
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Referencesepidemiologic evidence. E
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ReferencesEnvironmental Health Pers
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Referencestemperature. Epidemiology
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ReferencesEEA (2012) Annual Europea
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ReferencesChapter 5:Vulnerability t
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ReferencesSchool. http://www.jbs.ca
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European Environment AgencyClimate
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