Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe ... - MemoFin.fr

Climate impacts on socio-economic systems and healthVibrio (non‐cholera)Vibrio sp. propagates with rising water temperaturesand exploits prolonged periods of permissiveenvironmental conditions (Pedersen et al., 1997). Inthe Baltic Sea, notified V. vulnificus infections occurduring hot summer months and augment withwater temperatures above 20 °C (Hemmer et al.,2007). There is evidence of a link between elevatedsummer (water) temperatures, extended summerseasons and non‐cholera Vibrio sp. infections, butthe disease increase is projected to be modest due tolow current incidence rates. The recent analysis ofthe long-term sea surface temperature data revealedan unprecedented rate of the Baltic Sea warming(0.063–0.078 °C per year from 1982 to 2010), andfound strong links between the temporal and spatialpeaks in sea surface temperatures and the numberand distribution of Vibrio infections in the Baltic Searegion (Baker-Austin et al., 2012).4.5 Energy4.5.1 OverviewRelevanceEnergy plays a fundamental role in supporting allaspects of modern life. This sector is responsible forthe majority of anthropogenic GHG emissions (EEA,2012). At the same time, both energy supply andenergy demand are sensitive to changes in climate,in particular in temperature.The increasing frequency of extreme weather events,including heat waves, droughts and potentiallystorms, poses additional challenges for energysystems (Rademaekers et al., 2011). In particular,thermal power plant efficiency and output can beadversely affected by a rise in temperature or adecrease in availability of cooling water. Stormsand extreme wind gusts could also pose a challengefor the energy infrastructure, such as transmissionand distribution networks, as well as for renewablegenerators. Increased flooding could affect powerstations and substations. Changed precipitationpatterns or variability could add greater uncertaintyfor investing in hydropower facilities and alteroutput, but may also result in local benefits fromincreased hydropower output from facilities insome countries. Hydropower production could alsobe impacted by increased silting of sediment intoreservoirs due to increased erosion and sedimentdisplacement as a consequence of climate change.Renewable energy supply may also be impactedby climate change, in particular by impacts on theproduction of bioenergy but also on wind turbinesand solar cells.Indicator selectionThis section uses one indicator, heating degree days(HDD), to present information on climate impacts onenergy demand. An additional subsection presentsinformation on changes in electricity demand andelectricity production, which does not qualify tobe presented as an indicator due to limited dataavailability. Some limited information on the costs ofprojected impacts on the energy sector is providedin Section 5.5.2.Key messages: 4.5 Energy• The number of heating degree days has decreased by an average of 16 per year since 1980. This helpsreduce the demand for heating, particularly in northern and north-western Europe.• Climate change will affect future energy and electricity demand. Climate change is not expected tochange total energy demand in Europe substantially across Europe, but there may be significantseasonal effects, with large regional differences.• Climate change is projected to strongly increase energy demand for cooling in southern Europe, whichmay further exacerbate peaks in electricity supply in the summer.• Further increases in temperature and droughts may limit the availability of cooling water for thermalpower generation in summer when the abundance of cooling water is near its lowest.• Both renewable and conventional electricity energy generators may be impacted by changingtemperatures, rainfall patterns and possible increases in storm severity and frequency. Most impacts willbe negative, although some localised positive impacts may occur.Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012201