Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe ... - MemoFin.fr

Climate impacts on socio-economic systems and healthMosquito- borne diseasesVarious studies have found that warm seasonal andannual temperature and sufficient rainfall providefavourable climatic conditions for A. albopictus inEurope (Medlock et al., 2006; Roiz et al., 2011). Theclimatic suitability for A. albopictus is projectedto increase in central and western Europe and todecrease in southern Europe (Fischer, Thomas,et al., 2011). The risk of Chikungunya may alsoincrease, particularly in those regions in Europewhere the seasonal activity of A. albopictus matchesthe seasonality of endemic Chikungunya infectionsabroad (Charrel et al., 2008), thereby potentiallyincreasing the importation risk.Climate-related increase in the A. albopictus densityor active season could lead to a small increasein risk of Dengue in Europe. The risk could alsoincrease should temperature increase facilitate there-establishment of A. aegypti, the primary Denguevector. Further modelling studies are required toassess whether climate change would increase ordecrease the climatic suitability for A. aegypti incontinental Europe.Some climate-related change in malaria receptivityin Europe is suggested, but probably not enoughto re-establish malaria. The largest threat in Europerelates to population vulnerability, which isinfluenced by sporadic introductions of the parasitethrough global travel and trade.Climate change is not generally expected to stronglyimpact on WNV in Europe (Gale et al., 2009; Gouldand Higgs, 2009). However, it could influence thevirus transmission through affecting the geographicdistribution of vectors and pathogens, and changedmigratory patterns of bird populations, as well asthrough changes in the life-cycle of bird-associatedpathogens.Sandfly diseasesFuture climate change could impact on thedistribution of leishmaniasis by affecting theabundance of vector species and parasitedevelopment. Recent modelling indicates that thecentral European climate will become increasinglysuitable for Phelobotomus spp. sandflies, therebyincreasing the risk of leishmaniasis, but such anexpansion would be somewhat constrained bythe limited migration ability of sandflies (Fischer,Moeller, et al., 2011). The risk of disease transmissionmay decrease in some areas in southern Europewhere climate conditions become too hot and dryfor vector survival.4.4.7 Water- and food-borne diseasesRelevanceClimate change could affect food- and water‐bornediseases in Europe through higher air and watertemperatures, through increases in heavy rainfallevents and through extreme events, such asflooding, which can lead to contamination ofdrinking, recreational or irrigation water, and todisruption of water supply and sanitation systems(WHO, 2011b). Potential impacts will be modulatedby the quality of food safety measures, the capacityand quality of water treatment systems, humanbehaviour, and a range of other conditions.Elevated air temperatures could negatively affectthe quality of food during transport, storage andhandling. Higher water temperatures increasethe growth rate of certain pathogens, such asVibrio species that can cause food-borne outbreaks(seafood). On rare occasions, they may lead tosevere necrotic ulcers, septicemia and death insusceptible persons with wounds that are bathing inKey messages: 4.4.7 Water- and food-borne diseases• It is not possible to assess whether past climate change has already affected water- and food-bornediseases in Europe.• Climate change will likely increase the risk of food- and water-borne diseases in many parts of Europe.• Increased temperatures could increase the risk of salmonellosis.• Where precipitation or extreme flooding is projected to increase in Europe, the risk ofcampylobacteriosis and cryptosporidiosis could increase.• Climate change can impact food safety hazards throughout the food chain.Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012199