Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe ... - MemoFin.fr

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Climate impacts on socio-economic systems and healthMap 4.15Climatic suitability for the mosquitos Aedes albopictus and Aedes aegypti inEurope-30° -20° -10°Aedes aegypti0°10°20°30°40°50°60°70°-30° -20° -10° 0°Aedes albopictus10°20°30°40°50°60°70°60°60°50°50°50°50°40°40°40°40°0 500 0° 1000 150010°km20°30°40°0 500 0° 1000 150010°km20°30°40°Climatic suitability for Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus (Asian tiger mosquito) in EuropeSuitability (%)0–9 10–19 20–29 30–39 40–49 50–59 60–69 70–79 80–89 90–100 No predictionNote:Climatic suitability for the mosquitos Aedes albopictus (left) and Aedes aegypti (right) in Europe. Darker to lighter greenindicates conditions not suitable for the vector whereas yellow to orange colours indicate conditions that are increasinglysuitable for the vector. Grey indicates that no prediction is possible.Source: ECDC, 2012. © European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, 2012.Sandfly-borne diseasesLeishmaniasis is the most common diseasetransmitted by sandflies in Europe. Transmissionof the two parasites responsible for this disease thatare endemic in the EU (Leishmania infantum andL. tropica) is heavily influenced by temperature.L. tropica occurs sporadically in Greece andneighbouring countries, while L. infantum is endemicin the Mediterranean region of the EU. Sandflyvectors currently have wider distribution rangesthan the leishmaniasis pathogens. The evidence ofan impact of climate change on the distribution ofsandfly in Europe is scarce (Ready, 2010). Climatechange was suggested as one possible reason for theobserved northward expansion of sandfly vectors inItaly (Maroli et al., 2008).ProjectionsTick-borne diseasesAn expansion of the distribution range of ticks tohigher altitudes and latitudes is projected underfuture warming (Jaenson and Lindgren, 2011) underthe condition that their natural hosts (deer) wouldalso shift their distribution. TBE is projected to shiftup to higher altitudes and latitudes, potentiallyincreasing the risk in some parts of northernand central Europe, unless targeted vaccinationprogrammes and TBE surveillance are introduced.TBE risk is generally projected to decrease in southernEurope. Warmer winters may facilitate the expansionof Lyme borreliosis to higher latitudes and altitudes,particularly in northern Europe, but it woulddecrease in parts of Europe projected to experienceincreased droughts (Semenza and Menne, 2009).198 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012
Climate impacts on socio-economic systems and healthMosquito- borne diseasesVarious studies have found that warm seasonal andannual temperature and sufficient rainfall providefavourable climatic conditions for A. albopictus inEurope (Medlock et al., 2006; Roiz et al., 2011). Theclimatic suitability for A. albopictus is projectedto increase in central and western Europe and todecrease in southern Europe (Fischer, Thomas,et al., 2011). The risk of Chikungunya may alsoincrease, particularly in those regions in Europewhere the seasonal activity of A. albopictus matchesthe seasonality of endemic Chikungunya infectionsabroad (Charrel et al., 2008), thereby potentiallyincreasing the importation risk.Climate-related increase in the A. albopictus densityor active season could lead to a small increasein risk of Dengue in Europe. The risk could alsoincrease should temperature increase facilitate there-establishment of A. aegypti, the primary Denguevector. Further modelling studies are required toassess whether climate change would increase ordecrease the climatic suitability for A. aegypti incontinental Europe.Some climate-related change in malaria receptivityin Europe is suggested, but probably not enoughto re-establish malaria. The largest threat in Europerelates to population vulnerability, which isinfluenced by sporadic introductions of the parasitethrough global travel and trade.Climate change is not generally expected to stronglyimpact on WNV in Europe (Gale et al., 2009; Gouldand Higgs, 2009). However, it could influence thevirus transmission through affecting the geographicdistribution of vectors and pathogens, and changedmigratory patterns of bird populations, as well asthrough changes in the life-cycle of bird-associatedpathogens.Sandfly diseasesFuture climate change could impact on thedistribution of leishmaniasis by affecting theabundance of vector species and parasitedevelopment. Recent modelling indicates that thecentral European climate will become increasinglysuitable for Phelobotomus spp. sandflies, therebyincreasing the risk of leishmaniasis, but such anexpansion would be somewhat constrained bythe limited migration ability of sandflies (Fischer,Moeller, et al., 2011). The risk of disease transmissionmay decrease in some areas in southern Europewhere climate conditions become too hot and dryfor vector survival.4.4.7 Water- and food-borne diseasesRelevanceClimate change could affect food- and water‐bornediseases in Europe through higher air and watertemperatures, through increases in heavy rainfallevents and through extreme events, such asflooding, which can lead to contamination ofdrinking, recreational or irrigation water, and todisruption of water supply and sanitation systems(WHO, 2011b). Potential impacts will be modulatedby the quality of food safety measures, the capacityand quality of water treatment systems, humanbehaviour, and a range of other conditions.Elevated air temperatures could negatively affectthe quality of food during transport, storage andhandling. Higher water temperatures increasethe growth rate of certain pathogens, such asVibrio species that can cause food-borne outbreaks(seafood). On rare occasions, they may lead tosevere necrotic ulcers, septicemia and death insusceptible persons with wounds that are bathing inKey messages: 4.4.7 Water- and food-borne diseases• It is not possible to assess whether past climate change has already affected water- and food-bornediseases in Europe.• Climate change will likely increase the risk of food- and water-borne diseases in many parts of Europe.• Increased temperatures could increase the risk of salmonellosis.• Where precipitation or extreme flooding is projected to increase in Europe, the risk ofcampylobacteriosis and cryptosporidiosis could increase.• Climate change can impact food safety hazards throughout the food chain.Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012199
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EEA Report No 12/2012Climate change
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ContentsContentsAcknowledgements...
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ContentsMap 4.1 Change in the numbe
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ContentsList of boxesBox 1.1 The IP
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AcknowledgementsAblain, Gilles Larn
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AcknowledgementsComments from the E
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Executive summaryThe causes of the
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Technical summaryTable TS.1 Observe
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Technical summaryTable TS.1 Observe
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Technical summaryMountain areasThe
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Technical summaryTable TS.2 Key obs
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IntroductionIt should be noted that
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IntroductionBox 1.1The IPCC Fifth A
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Introduction1. develop and improve
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Introduction1.4.3 Overview of main
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IntroductionThe next generation of
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Introductionimmigration will be low
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Introduction7. projection of a clim
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IntroductionThe term risk is also i
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Changes in the climate system2 Chan
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Changes in the climate systemdammin
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Changes in the climate system2.1.4
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Changes in the climate systemSelect
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Changes in the climate systemPast t
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Changes in the climate systemEurope
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Changes in the climate systemSevera
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Changes in the climate systemMap 2.
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Changes in the climate systemclosel
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Changes in the climate system2.3 Cr
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Changes in the climate systemPast t
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Changes in the climate systemof up
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Changes in the climate systemFigure
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Changes in the climate system2.3.5
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Changes in the climate systemBox 2.
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Abbreviations and acronymsAcronym o
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Abbreviations and acronymsAcronym o
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Abbreviations and acronymsProject a
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Referenceset al. (2010) DEMIFER: De
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ReferencesNovember to 11 December 2
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ReferencesEEA (2011a) Mapping the i
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References19 December 2009. UNFCCC,
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ReferencesIsaksen, K., Sollid, J. L
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Referencesfür Hydrologie und Limno
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Referencescirculation models. Journ
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Referencesin Geophysics 32(4-5), 58
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ReferencesVermeer, M. and Rahmstorf
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ReferencesDevelopment. http://ec.eu
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ReferencesMooij, W. M., Hulsmann, S
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ReferencesAraújo, M. B., Thuiller,
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ReferencesPeninsula (1952-2004). Ec
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ReferencesMenzel, A., Sparks, T. H.
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ReferencesUrban, M. C., Tewksbury,
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ReferencesM., Palosuo, T., Bellamy,
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ReferencesApplied Climatology 74, 4
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Referencesepidemiologic evidence. E
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ReferencesEnvironmental Health Pers
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Referencestemperature. Epidemiology
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ReferencesEEA (2012) Annual Europea
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ReferencesChapter 5:Vulnerability t
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ReferencesSchool. http://www.jbs.ca
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European Environment AgencyClimate
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