Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe ... - MemoFin.fr

Climate impacts on socio-economic systems and healthMap 4.13European distribution of Borrelia burgdorferi in questing I. ricinus ticks-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°50°60°70°Risk ofBorrelia burgdorferisensu lato in nymphalIxodes ricinus ticks60°50°NullNegligibleLowModerateHighOutside study area50°40°40°0 500 1000 1500 km0°10°20°30°40°Note:The risks described in this figure are relative to each other according to a standard distribution scale. Risk is defined as theprobability of finding nymphal ticks positive for Borrelia burgdorferi. For each prevalence quartile, associated climate traitswere used to produce a qualitative evaluation of risk according to Office International des Epizooties (OIE) standards at fivelevels (high, moderate, low, negligible, and null), which directly correlate with the probability of finding nymphal ticks withprevalence in the four quartiles.Source: Adapted from Estrada-Pena et al., 2011. © American Society for Microbiology.upsurge of TBE in recent years but it is not currentlypossible to assess the relative importance of climaticchanges and of other factors influencing diseaseincidence, including vaccination coverage, tourismpatterns, public awareness, distribution of rodenthost populations and socio‐economic conditions(Randolph, 2008). There is limited evidence thattwo other tick-borne diseases may be sensitive toclimate change. Some models have suggested thatthe Mediterranean basin has become suitable foran expansion of Crimean-Congo haemorrhagicfever (Maltezou and Papa, 2010), but demographicfactors and land-use change may be more importantdrivers. Rickettsia has also expanded in recent years,but the reasons for this are not yet well understood(Gouriet et al., 2006).Mosquito-borne diseasesMosquito habitats are influenced by temperature,humidity and precipitation levels. The Asian tigermosquito (Aedes albopictus) is an important vectorin Europe transmitting viral diseases, includingChikungunya and Dengue. Since its establishment inItaly in 1990, A. albopictus has substantially extendedits range, aided by trade and travel; it is presentin several EU countries and in some countriesneighbouring the EU (Map 4.14). Even larger partsof Europe are climatically suitable for A. albopictus(Map 4.15, left).196 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012