Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe ... - MemoFin.fr

Climate impacts on socio-economic systems and healthProjectionsClimate change is expected to affect future ozoneconcentrations due to changes in meteorologicalconditions, as well as due to increased emissions ofspecific ozone precursors (e.g. increased isoprenefrom vegetation under higher temperatures)and/or emissions from wildfires that can increaseunder periods of extensive drought. Most of thelinks between individual climate factors and ozoneformation are well understood (Table 4.3) (Jacoband Winner, 2009; Monks et al., 2009). Nevertheless,quantification of future levels of ground-level ozoneremains uncertain due to the complex interactionof these processes. Available studies indicate thatprojected climate change affects different regions inEurope differently, by increasing average summerozone concentrations in southern Europe anddecreasing them over northern Europe and theAlps (Andersson and Engardt, 2010; Langner et al.,2012). Preliminary results indicate that in a longtime perspective (2050 and beyond), envisagedemission reduction measures of ozone precursorshave a much larger effect on concentrations ofground-level ozone than climate change (Langneret al., 2011). Climate change in combination with theemission reductions will influence the future levelsof ground‐level ozone.Table 4.3Selection of meteorological parameters that might increase under future climatechange and their impact on ozone levelsIncrease in… Results in…. Impact on ozone levels …Temperature Faster photochemistry Increases (high NO X)Decreases (low NO X)AtmospherichumidityIncreased biogenic emissions (VOC, NO)IncreaseIncreased ozone destruction Increases (high NO X)Decreases (low NO X)Drought events Decreased atmospheric humidity and higher temperatures IncreasesBlocked weatherpatternsPlant stress and reduced stomata openingIncreased frequency of wild firesMore frequent episodes of stagnant airIncrease in summertime/dry season heat wavesIncreasesIncreasesIncreasesIncreasesNote:Level of understanding of the process is marked with colours: green (good understanding), orange (moderate understanding)and red (poor understanding).Source: Royal Society, 2008.194 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012