Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe ... - MemoFin.fr

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Climate impacts on socio-economic systems and health4.4.5 Air pollution by ozone and healthRelevanceOzone is a greenhouse gas, but ground level ozone isprimarily an air pollutant, which is of high concernin Europe (Confalonieri et al., 2007; Monks et al.,2009; EEA, 2011b). Concentrations of ground‐levelozone are determined by both precursor emissionsand meteorological conditions, which also influencethe transport of ozone and its precursors betweencontinents (UNECE, 2011). Ground-level ozone ishighly reactive and therefore harmful to vegetation,materials and human health. Short-term, high-levelexposure can cause breathing problems and lungdiseases, trigger asthma, and reduce lung function.The estimated effects of excessive exposure to ozone(exceeding the threshold of 70 μg/m 3 ) include about20 000 premature deaths, and 14 000 respiratoryhospital admissions every year in the EU-25, andup to 108 million person-days with minor activityrestrictions, respiratory medication use, coughor lower respiratory symptoms (WHO, 2008a).Evidence of chronic effects (asthma and lungdevelopment) of long-term exposure to high ozonelevels is still limited (WHO, 2008a; UNECE, 2011).There is a scarce evidence that high ozone levelscan further increase mortality during heat waves(Filleul et al., 2006).in Europe have largely stagnated. Meteorologicalvariability and climate change could play a rolein this discrepancy, including by increasingemissions of biogenic non‐methane volatile organiccompounds (NMVOCs) during wildfires, butincreasing intercontinental transport of ozone andits precursors in the Northern Hemisphere alsoneeds to be considered (EEA, 2010b; c). Formationof tropospheric ozone from increased concentrationsof CH 4may also contribute to the sustained ozonelevels in Europe (EEA, 2012).The relative contributions of local or regionalemission reduction measures, specificmeteorological conditions (such as heat waves),hemispheric transport of air pollution and emissionsfrom natural sources (such as wildfires), on overallozone concentrations is difficult to estimate.A statistical analysis of ozone and temperaturemeasurements in Europe for 1993–2004 shows thatin central-western Europe and the MediterraneanFigure 4.8O 3(μg/m 3 )Annual mean ozoneconcentrations (1999–2009)by station type100Past trendsThere is no clear trend in the annual meanconcentration of ozone recorded at differenttypes of stations (urban vs. rural) over the period1999–2009, although there is a slight decreasingtendency since 2006 in rural stations, at variousgeographical levels, both low-level and high‐level(Figure 4.8). Meanwhile, a slight tendencytowards increased annual mean concentrationsis detected close to traffic. Ozone precursoremissions in Europe have been cut substantiallyrecently whereas average ozone concentrations75502501998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010Urban Traffic Rural — low Rural — highSource: EEA, 2011b.Key messages: 4.4.5 Air pollution by ozone and health• Ozone is both an important air pollutant and a GHG. Excessive exposure to ground-level ozone isestimated to cause about 20 000 premature deaths per year in Europe.• Attribution of observed ozone exceedances, or changes therein, to individual causes, such as climatechange, is difficult.• Future climate change is expected to increase ozone concentrations but this effect will most likely beoutweighed by reduction in ozone levels due to expected future emission reductions.192 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012
Climate impacts on socio-economic systems and healtharea a change in the increase in daily maximumtemperatures in 2000–2004 compared with 1993–1996contributed to extra ozone exceedances. In southernand central Europe, the observed temperature trendwas responsible for 8 extra annual exceedance days(above the threshold of 120 μg/m³) on average,which corresponds to 17 % of the total number ofexceedances observed in that region (EEA, 2008).A modelling study suggests that observed climatevariability and change have contributed to increasedozone concentrations during the period 1979–2001in large parts of central and southern Europe(Andersson et al., 2007). The reason for this is acombination of changes in temperature, windpatterns, cloud cover and atmospheric stability.Temperature plays a role in various processeswhich directly affect the formation of ozone, like theemission of biogenic NMVOCs, for example isoprene,and the photo-dissociation of nitrogen dioxide (NO 2).A study by (Wilson et al., 2012) showed that ozonetrends in Europe in the years 1997–1998 wereinfluenced by El Niño and biomass burning eventsand in the year 2003 by the heat wave in north-westEurope. The study did not conclude on the impactof emission reduction on long-term ozone trends,due to the influence of meteorological variability,changes in background ozone and shift in emissionsource patterns. Decreased anthropogenic emissionsof some ozone precursors (NO X, CO, and someNMVOCs) in the past two decades have reduced thenumber of peak ozone concentrations (EEA, 2011b;2012).In order to understand historical troposphericozone trends, further retrospective sensitivityanalysis of precursor emission changes andhindcast modelling of ozone concentrations areneeded to quantify the impact and variability of thevarious factors influencing ozone levels. Map 4.12shows the estimated trends in tropospheric ozoneconcentrations over Europe for two time periodsderived from such hindcast modelling. There hasbeen a marked increase in ozone concentrations inmany regions from 1978 to 2001. However, takinginto account a longer perspective starting from 1958,increases are limited to a few European regions.Unfortunately, more recent data is not available.Map 4.12 Modelled change in tropospheric ozone concentrations over Europe, 1958–2001and 1978–2001O3 1958-2001 O3 1979-20011958–20011978–2001Trend in tropospheric ozone concentrations due to climate variability and climate change– 10 – 5 – 2 –1 0 1 2 5 10% per decadeSource: Andersson et al., 2007, in EEA, 2008.Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012193
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EEA Report No 12/2012Climate change
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ContentsContentsAcknowledgements...
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ContentsMap 4.1 Change in the numbe
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ContentsList of boxesBox 1.1 The IP
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AcknowledgementsAblain, Gilles Larn
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AcknowledgementsComments from the E
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Executive summaryThe causes of the
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Technical summaryTable TS.1 Observe
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Technical summaryTable TS.1 Observe
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Technical summaryMountain areasThe
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Technical summaryTable TS.2 Key obs
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IntroductionIt should be noted that
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IntroductionBox 1.1The IPCC Fifth A
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Introduction1. develop and improve
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Introduction1.4.3 Overview of main
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IntroductionThe next generation of
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Introductionimmigration will be low
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Introduction7. projection of a clim
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IntroductionThe term risk is also i
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Changes in the climate system2 Chan
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Changes in the climate systemdammin
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Changes in the climate system2.1.4
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Changes in the climate systemSelect
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Changes in the climate systemPast t
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Changes in the climate systemEurope
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Changes in the climate systemSevera
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Changes in the climate systemMap 2.
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Changes in the climate systemclosel
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Changes in the climate system2.3 Cr
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Changes in the climate systemPast t
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Changes in the climate systemof up
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Changes in the climate systemFigure
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Changes in the climate system2.3.5
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Changes in the climate systemBox 2.
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Climate impacts on environmental sy
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Indicator and data needsDirectorate
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Indicator and data needs6.2.2 Globa
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Abbreviations and acronyms7 Abbrevi
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Abbreviations and acronymsAcronym o
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Abbreviations and acronymsAcronym o
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Abbreviations and acronymsProject a
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Referenceset al. (2010) DEMIFER: De
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ReferencesNovember to 11 December 2
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ReferencesEEA (2011a) Mapping the i
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References19 December 2009. UNFCCC,
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ReferencesIsaksen, K., Sollid, J. L
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Referencesfür Hydrologie und Limno
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Referencescirculation models. Journ
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Referencesin Geophysics 32(4-5), 58
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ReferencesVermeer, M. and Rahmstorf
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ReferencesDevelopment. http://ec.eu
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ReferencesMooij, W. M., Hulsmann, S
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ReferencesAraújo, M. B., Thuiller,
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ReferencesPeninsula (1952-2004). Ec
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ReferencesMenzel, A., Sparks, T. H.
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ReferencesUrban, M. C., Tewksbury,
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ReferencesM., Palosuo, T., Bellamy,
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ReferencesApplied Climatology 74, 4
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Referencesepidemiologic evidence. E
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ReferencesEnvironmental Health Pers
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Referencestemperature. Epidemiology
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ReferencesEEA (2012) Annual Europea
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ReferencesChapter 5:Vulnerability t
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ReferencesSchool. http://www.jbs.ca
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European Environment AgencyClimate
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