Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe ... - MemoFin.fr

Climate impacts on socio-economic systems and healthlargest effect was observed among the elderly,but in some cities younger adults were affectedas well (D'Ippoliti et al., 2010; Baccini et al., 2011).Heat-related problems are largest in cities; amongmany interrelated factors, the urban heat islandeffect plays an important role. Future climatechange is very likely to increase frequency, intensityand duration of heat waves. During hot weather,synergistic effects between high temperature andair pollution (PM10 and ozone) were observed.Long warm and dry periods in combination withother factors can also lead to forest fires which haveshown to have severe health impacts (Analitis et al.,2012).Extreme cold can also significantly affect humanhealth. Excess winter mortality in Mediterraneancountries is higher than in northern Europeancountries, and deaths often occur several days orweeks after the coldest day of a cold period (Healy,2003; Analitis et al., 2008).Besides extreme temperature events, temperaturesoutside a local comfort temperature range arelinked to increased mortality and other adversehealth outcomes. Several studies found J-shapedexposure‐response relationships with mortalityand morbidity, increasing at both ends of thetemperature scale (Figure 4.7). Effects of heat occurmostly on the same day and in the following threedays whereas cold effects were largest 2–3 weeksafter the event (WHO, 2011a; Ye et al., 2011).Figure 4.7Temperature-mortality relationship in 15 European citiesLog mortality rateAthens Barcelona Budapest Dublin Helsinki4444433333222221111100000– 1– 1– 1– 1– 1– 2– 2– 2– 2– 2– 3– 3– 3– 3– 3– 5 0 10 20 30 40 – 5 0 10 20 30 40 – 5 0 10 20 30 40 – 5 0 10 20 30 40 – 5 0 10 20 30 40Log mortality rateLjubliana London Milan Paris Praha444443333322212201111– 10000– 2– 1– 1– 1– 1– 3– 2– 2– 2– 2– 3– 3– 3– 3– 5 0 10 20 30 40 – 5 0 10 20 30 40 – 5 0 10 20 30 40 – 5 0 10 20 30 40 – 5 0 10 20 30 40Log mortality rateRome Stockholm Turin Valencia Zurich4444433333222221111100000– 1– 1– 1– 1– 1– 2– 2– 2– 2– 2– 3– 3– 3– 3– 3– 5 0 10 20 30 40 – 5 0 10 20 30 40 – 5 0 10 20 30 40 – 5 0 10 20 30 40 – 5 0 10 20 30 40Apparent temperature Apparent temperature Apparent temperature Apparent temperature Apparent temperatureNote:Figure shows relationship between daily maximum apparent temperature (Barcelona: mean apparent temperature) andnatural mortality (black) and 95% confidence interval (grey).Source: Baccini et al., 2008. © Lippincott Williams. Reprinted with permission.190 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012