Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe ... - MemoFin.fr

Climate impacts on socio-economic systems and health4.4.3 Floods and healthRelevanceClimate change can increase the severity andfrequency of extreme weather events, such asheavy precipitation (see Section 2.2.5), storms (seeSection 2.2.6), and storm surges (see Section 3.2.3).Floods caused by these events can affect peopleimmediately (e.g. through drowning and injuries),but also a long time after the event (e.g. throughthe destruction of homes, water shortages,displacement, disruption of essential services andfinancial loss) and especially through the stressflood victims are exposed to (WHO and HPA,Forthcoming; Ahern et al., 2005; Paranjothy et al.,2011; Stanke et al., 2012).Past trendsEstimates for the WHO European Region basedon a combination of data from EM-DAT andDFO indicate that floods have killed more than1 000 people and affected 3.4 million others inthe period 2000–2009. Deaths from flooding werehighest (on a per capita basis) in central and easternEurope (WHO and HPA, Forthcoming). Map 4.11shows the number of people affected by floodingin the same period. The largest numbers (on a percapita basis) are found in south-eastern Europe,eastern Europe and central Europe.ProjectionsHeavy precipitation events are likely to becomemore frequent in many regions in Europe(see Section 2.2.5). In the absence of adaptation,river flooding is estimated to affect 250 000 to400 000 additional people per year in Europe by the2080s, which corresponds to more than a doublingwith respect to the 1961–1990 period. The increaseis projected in central Europe and the British Isles(WHO and HPA, Forthcoming).The PESETA project estimated that up to anadditional 1.6 million people each year in thenorthern Mediterranean, and northern and westernEurope would experience coastal flooding by 2080under the SRES A1FI scenario, unless additionaladaptation measures were taken. The number ofpeople affected by coastal flooding in the EU rangesbetween 775 000 to 5.5 million people, dependingon the emissions scenario (Ciscar et al., 2011).Under the high sea-level rise scenario (B2), mentalhealth impacts of coastal flooding in the EU couldpotentially reach five million additional cases ofmild depression annually in the period 2071–2100;impacts presumably significantly reduced withadaptation (Watkiss and Hunt, 2012).According to the SRES A1B scenario, climate andsocio‐economic change would lead in the EU to650 deaths per year by the 2080s due to coastalflooding. Two thirds of these deaths would occurin western Europe. These estimates decreasesignificantly under the E1 mitigation scenario to185 (2080s) fatalities per year. Coastal adaptationmeasures can significantly reduce risks to lessthan 10 deaths per year in 2080 (from 650 withoutadaptation) (Kovats et al., 2011).Key messages: 4.4.3 Floods and health• River and coastal flooding affect millions of people in Europe each year. They affect human healththrough drowning, heart attacks, injuries, infections, psychosocial consequences, and health effects ofchemical hazards as well as disruption of services.• Observed increases in heavy precipitation and extreme coastal high-water events have led to more riverand coastal flooding in many European regions.• Increases in health risks associated with river and coastal flooding are projected in many regions ofEurope due to projected increases in extreme precipitation events and sea level.188 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012