Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe ... - MemoFin.fr

Climate impacts on socio-economic systems and healthFigure 4.4Observed change in the distribution of demersal fish in response to observed risein sea surface temperaturesNorthernaffinitySouthernaffinityNorway poutNorway redfishPoggeShorthorn sculpinLong-rough dabAtlantic codDabLemon soleHaddockLingSaitheWitchPollackWhitingThorny skateAnglerfishBlue whitingFlounderThornback raySilvery codSticklebackHagfishMegrimPoor codHakeSpur dogGreater weeverFourbeard rocklingPlaiceGrey gurnardPoutingDover soleDragonetLesser weeverScaldfishSpotted raySpotted dragonetRed mulletCuckoo rayTub gurnardThickback soleLesser spotted dogfishRed gurnardBoarfishRed bandfishSolenetteJohn doryBlackbelly rosefishPearlsidesSplendid alfonsino– 0.2 – 0.15 – 0.1 – 0.05 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35Abundance response to temperatureNote:Changes in abundance in response to observed temperature change are relative changes (unitless).Source: Simpson et al., 2011. Reprinted with permission from Elsevier.aquaculture production has been observed overthe past 15 years (EEA, 2010). Today EU andEuropean Free Trade Association (EFTA) aquacultureproduction is at a level of 1.8 million tonnes of fish,shellfish and crustaceans, generating a turnover ofEUR 3.2 billion and 65 000 jobs. Often aquacultureproduction is situated in coastal communities thatrely almost solely on income from that industry, andhence these communities are vulnerable to changesthat affect the industry.ProjectionsProjections of changes in total catch of marinefish and invertebrates as a consequence only oftemperature changes has shown the potential of alarge-scale redistribution of global catch potentialwith an increase in high latitude regions and a declinein the tropics. The exclusive economic zone (EEZ)regions with the highest increase in catch potential byyear 2055 include Alaska (USA), Greenland, Norwayand Russia, whereas the biggest loss would occur inChile, China, Indonesia and USA (excluding Alaskaand Hawaii) (Cheung et al., 2009; 2012). Hence, thebiggest loss in catch potential is likely to occur outsideEurope, but it would affect parts of the world that areparticularly vulnerable to such changes because of thehigh importance of fisheries to national economiesand diets, and limited societal capacity to adapt topotential impacts and opportunities (Allison et al.,2009). Large differences in changed catch potentialare likely to occur within Europe, with the greatestincrease in the Arctic.Climate change may create new opportunities foraquaculture, in particular by raising warm-waterspecies in previously unsuitable locations. Changesin aquaculture, however, also strongly depend onmarket forces and consumers' tastes, which may havea stronger influence on production than temperatureand technological advancements.182 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012