Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe ... - MemoFin.fr

Climate impacts on socio-economic systems and healthFigure 4.3 Burnt forest area in five southern European countries (1980–2010)Hectares (ha)1 000 000800 000600 000400 000200 00001980198219841986198819901992199419961998200020022004200620082010Portugal Spain France Italy Greece TotalSource: Schmuck et al., 2011.year-by-year variation of fire incidence in Europehas been clearly demonstrated (Camia and Amatulli,2009).Annual SSR values for the period 1981 to 2010were computed based on daily weather data usingthe European Centre for Medium-Range WeatherForecasts (ECMWF) ERA-Interim dataset. Map 4.9shows the SSR values averaged over the entireperiod (left map) and the corresponding trendderived from linear interpolation of the annualvalues (right map).Map 4.10 compares modelled fire danger projectionsfor baseline (1961–1990) and projected (2071–2100)climate conditions. The results suggest that climatechange would lead to a marked increase of firepotential in south-eastern and south-westernEurope; in relative terms the increase in SSR wouldbe particularly strong in western-central Europe.ProjectionsClimate change projections suggest substantialwarming and increases in the number of droughts,heat waves and dry spells across most of theMediterranean area and more generally in southernEurope (see Section 2.2). These projected climatechanges would increase the length and severity ofthe fire season, the area at risk and the probability oflarge fires, possibly enhancing desertification.178 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012