Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe ... - MemoFin.fr

Climate impacts on socio-economic systems and healthTable 4.1Impacts and consequences of climate change on forest growth and forestconditionsClimate effects Impacts ConsequencesIncreased CO 2concentrations, longergrowing seasonReduced snowfallIncrease in average winter temperatureHigher earlier spring temperaturesDecrease in spring and summer rainfallIncreased winter rainfallReduced soil moistureIncreased frequency of high or extremetemperature episodesChanges in temperature, rainfall andfrequency of extreme weather eventsIncreased productivity of some species,e.g. for biomass productionDecrease in snow damageIncrease in wet snow damagesWinter chilling requirements forflowering and seed germination notmet, incomplete winter hardeningReduction in winter cold damageReduction in cold-associated mortality ofinsect pest, deer populationsPotential for range of new speciesEarlier budburst and potentiallyincreased damages by late frostsDrought during tree growth periodThreat to newly planted treesIncrease in forest firesLimiting current tree species rangeWaterlogging of soils, killing of treerootsChanges in species suitabilityDamaging effects of pestsLoss of biodiversityIncreased timber supplyReduced natural regenerationSerious winter tree damageIncreased tree damagesReduced high-quality timber supplyReduced tree growth, serious damage totreesTree damage; increased tree vulnerabilityto insect attack; increased risk of soilerosionChanges in tree composition and thus inthe range of goods and servicesReduction of rooting depths Increasedvulnerability to droughts and stormsTree damage and mortality: loss of timberquality and quantityLoss of biodiversity and habitatsIncrease in storm events Wind throws Loss of quality timber supply, ofrecreational areas, gaps favouringregenerationDroughts Serious damages to trees and stands Reduced timber volume and reduced highqualitytimber supply; higher susceptibilityto pests and pathogens; higher mortality;effects on nutrient cycling, habitats andfaunaExtreme weather eventsMigration of tree species/loss of nativetree speciesPotential reduction of some of thedamaging effects of pestsLoss of biodiversity and habitatsReduced tree damage and yield losses(either quantity or quality)Source: Compiled from Brown et al., 2012.at an accelerating rate, as a consequence of a numberof factors. A time series for 17 EEA countries showsan increase in growing stock from 85 million m 3(5.4 m 3 ha -1 ) in 1990 to 110 million m 3 (5.9 m 3 ha -1 )in 2010 (Forest Europe, UNECE and FAO, 2011).This has been explained primarily by the growth ofyoung forests in Europe, which have not reachedmaturity, and by the increasing carbon concentrationin the atmosphere. Furthermore, several studieshave already noted longer growing seasons inseveral species, shifts in tree line and changes inspecies distribution (see Section 3.4.3). However, insome central and western forest areas of Europe,forest growth has been reduced in the last 10 yearsdue to storms, pests and diseases.ProjectionsMany aspects of projected climate change willimpact forest growth and productivity (Solberget al., 2009). Increasing CO 2in the atmosphere mightact as a fertiliser for plants and enables them touse water more efficiently, but this effect seems tobe strongly dependent on local conditions such asmoisture stress and soil nutrient availability and itmight be limited to young trees. Nitrogen depositionmay enhance forest growth in particular areas whereplant-available nitrogen is still the limiting factordepending on soil, climate, vegetation, depositionhistory and use. However, nitrogen depositionClimate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012175