Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe ... - MemoFin.fr

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Climate impacts on socio-economic systems and healthMap 4.6Simulated change in water-limited wheat production for 2030 based on twoclimate modelsNote:Simulated change in water-limited wheat production for 2030 compared with 2000 for the A1B emission scenario using a cold(ECHAM5) (left) and a warm (HADCM3) (right) climate change projection.Source: Donatelli et al., 2012.168 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012
Climate impacts on socio-economic systems and health4.1.5 Irrigation water requirementRelevanceWater is essential for plant growth and there is arelationship between plant biomass production andtranspiration, with the water-use efficiency (biomassproduction per unit water transpired) being affectedby crop species as well as management. Increasingatmospheric CO 2concentration will lead to higherwater use efficiency through reductions in planttranspiration (Kruijt et al., 2008) and increasedphotosynthesis (Ainsworth and Long, 2005). Highertemperatures and lower relative humidity leadsto higher evaporative demands, which reducesthe water-use efficiency. The resulting effect ofclimate change on water-use efficiency is thereforea combination of changes in temperature andatmospheric CO 2concentration as well as changesin crop choice and management. The water demandby crops must be met through rainfall duringthe growing period, from soil water storage orby irrigation. In drought prone areas, increasingdemands for water by industrial and urban usersintensify the competition for water for irrigation inagriculture (Iglesias et al., 2007).Past trendsConsistent observations of water demand foragriculture do not currently exist for Europebut past trends can be estimated on the basis ofmeteorological data. Map 4.7 estimates the change inthe water balance, which is the difference betweena reference evapotranspiration and the rainfall. Thisindicator provides only a rough proxy for changesin irrigation demand, because actual irrigationdemand is determined by the crops grown, the typeof irrigation applied and the local soil conditions.In the period considered (1975–2010), the IberianPeninsula and Italy experienced an increase in thevolume of water required for irrigation, if yieldsof irrigated crops were to be maintained, whereasparts of south-eastern Europe have experienced adecrease.ProjectionsNo projections of changes in irrigation demandare available for Europe. Many climate changeprojections show a consistent increase in thenumber of dry days in spring and summer in muchof southern and central Europe (Trnka, Olesen,et al., 2011). In some of the severe climate changescenarios the increase in the number of dry daysin summer even extends far into northern Europe.The increasing temperatures will increase theevaporative demand, which would be furtherincreased if the higher frequency of dry days leadsto lower relative humidity and reduced cloud cover.These effects will only be partly compensated bythe reduced crop transpiration under higher CO 2concentrations (Olesen et al., 2007).The expected increasing evapotranspiration will putpressure on the use of irrigation in drought-proneareas. Irrigation in Europe is currently concentratedalong the Mediterranean, where some countries usemore than 80 % of total freshwater abstraction foragricultural purposes (EEA, 2009). The increasingdemand for irrigation will therefore increasethe competition for water, in particular wheretotal water availability declines due to reducedprecipitation. Assuming that urban water demandswould have preference over agricultural purposes,the proportional reduction of water availability forirrigation in many European basins is larger than thereduction in annual run-off (Map 4.8) (Iglesias et al.,2012). Projections for the Mediterranean region showa considerable decline in water availability, whichin some areas makes current irrigation practicesimpossible in the future.Key messages: 4.1.5 Irrigation water requirement• In the Iberian Peninsula and Italy, an increase in the volume of water required for irrigation from 1975to 2010 has been estimated, whereas parts of south-eastern Europe have recorded a decrease.• The projected increases in temperature will lead to increased evapotranspiration rates, therebyincreasing crop water requirements across Europe.• The impact of increasing water requirements is expected to be most acute in southern Europe, wherethe suitability for rain-fed agriculture is projected to decrease and irrigation requirements are projectedto increase.Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012169
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EEA Report No 12/2012Climate change
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ContentsContentsAcknowledgements...
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ContentsMap 4.1 Change in the numbe
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ContentsList of boxesBox 1.1 The IP
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AcknowledgementsAblain, Gilles Larn
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AcknowledgementsComments from the E
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Executive summaryThe causes of the
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Technical summaryTable TS.1 Observe
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Technical summaryTable TS.1 Observe
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Technical summaryMountain areasThe
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Technical summaryTable TS.2 Key obs
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IntroductionIt should be noted that
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IntroductionBox 1.1The IPCC Fifth A
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Introduction1. develop and improve
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Introduction1.4.3 Overview of main
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IntroductionThe next generation of
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Introductionimmigration will be low
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Introduction7. projection of a clim
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IntroductionThe term risk is also i
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Changes in the climate system2 Chan
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Changes in the climate systemdammin
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Changes in the climate system2.1.4
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Changes in the climate systemSelect
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Changes in the climate systemPast t
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Changes in the climate systemEurope
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Changes in the climate systemSevera
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Changes in the climate systemMap 2.
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Changes in the climate systemclosel
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Changes in the climate system2.3 Cr
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Changes in the climate systemPast t
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Changes in the climate systemof up
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Changes in the climate systemFigure
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Changes in the climate system2.3.5
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Changes in the climate systemBox 2.
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Climate impacts on environmental sy
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Vulnerability to climate changeMap
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Vulnerability to climate changeasse
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Vulnerability to climate change5.3.
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Vulnerability to climate changeBox
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Vulnerability to climate changeMap
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Vulnerability to climate change5.5
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Vulnerability to climate changeFigu
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Vulnerability to climate changeFigu
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Vulnerability to climate changeFina
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Vulnerability to climate changefact
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Indicator and data needsA key polic
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Indicator and data needsWEI and res
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Indicator and data needsDirectorate
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Indicator and data needs6.2.2 Globa
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Abbreviations and acronyms7 Abbrevi
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Abbreviations and acronymsAcronym o
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Abbreviations and acronymsAcronym o
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Abbreviations and acronymsProject a
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Referenceset al. (2010) DEMIFER: De
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ReferencesNovember to 11 December 2
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ReferencesEEA (2011a) Mapping the i
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References19 December 2009. UNFCCC,
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ReferencesIsaksen, K., Sollid, J. L
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Referencesfür Hydrologie und Limno
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Referencescirculation models. Journ
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Referencesin Geophysics 32(4-5), 58
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ReferencesVermeer, M. and Rahmstorf
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ReferencesDevelopment. http://ec.eu
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ReferencesMooij, W. M., Hulsmann, S
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ReferencesAraújo, M. B., Thuiller,
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ReferencesPeninsula (1952-2004). Ec
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ReferencesMenzel, A., Sparks, T. H.
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ReferencesUrban, M. C., Tewksbury,
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ReferencesM., Palosuo, T., Bellamy,
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ReferencesApplied Climatology 74, 4
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Referencesepidemiologic evidence. E
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ReferencesEnvironmental Health Pers
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Referencestemperature. Epidemiology
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ReferencesEEA (2012) Annual Europea
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ReferencesChapter 5:Vulnerability t
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ReferencesSchool. http://www.jbs.ca
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European Environment AgencyClimate
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