Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe ... - MemoFin.fr

Climate impacts on socio-economic systems and healthMap 4.4Projected changes in effective solar radiation from two climate models-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°50°60°70°-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°50°60°70°60°60°50°50°50°50°40°40°40°40°0 500 0° 1000 1500 10° km20°30°40°0 500 0° 1000 1500 10° km20°30°40°Projected change in effective global radiation(MJ/m²)< – 200– 200 to – 150– 150 to – 100– 100 to – 50– 50 to 00 to 5050 to 100100 to 150150 to 200> 200No dataOutsidecoverageNote:Mean changes in effective solar radiation (MJ/m 2 ), which is an indicator for water-limited crop productivity, for the period2031–2050 compared with 1975–1994 for the RACMO (KNMI) and HadRCM3 (Hadley Centre.HC) projections under theA1B emission scenario.Source: J.E. Olesen, 2012 (personal communication).stress and a shortening of active growing seasonacross large parts of southern and central Europe(Trnka, Olesen, et al., 2011). Results also suggest arisk of an increasing number of unfavourable yearsfor agricultural production in many Europeanclimatic zones, resulting in increased variability ofcrop yield from droughts and heat waves.The estimates shown in Map 4.4 do not consider theeffects of enhanced atmospheric CO 2levels on cropproductivity. The ClimateCrop model was applied toexplore the combined effects of projected changes intemperature, rainfall and CO 2concentration acrossEurope, considering certain management changesthus incorporating effects of adaptation. The meanprojected changes in Map 4.5 show the same overallpicture as Map 4.4 of decreases in yields along theMediterranean and large increases in Scandinavia.However, throughout large parts of western andcentral Europe mean changes in crop yields arelikely to be small.Map 4.6 shows changes in water-limited wheatproduction in Europe by 2030 for climateprojections from two different climate models(Donatelli et al., 2012). The results that also includeeffects of enhanced CO 2concentrations indicatethat different climate models can lead to largedifferences in projected impacts, with both yieldincreases and decreases possible in northern andsouthern Europe. The same study showed largedifferences in simulated yield changes betweendifferent crops, climate model projections andtime horizons. Neither of these model estimatesconsiders adaptation to climate change, such aschanges in crop species and varieties and changesin crop management. It is therefore likely thatnegative yield impacts will be smaller and positiveeffects bigger following adaptation in the farmingsystems.166 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012