Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe ... - MemoFin.fr

Climate impacts on socio-economic systems and health4 Climate impacts on socio‐economicsystems and health4.1 Agriculture4.1.1 OverviewRelevanceThe cultivation of crops, their productivity andquality, are directly dependent on different climaticfactors. Climate change is already having an impacton agriculture (Peltonen-Sainio et al., 2010; Olesenet al., 2011), and has been attributed as one of thefactors contributing to stagnation in wheat yieldsin parts of Europe despite continued progress incrop breeding (Brisson et al., 2010). Climate changeis expected to continue to affect agriculture in thefuture (Olesen et al., 2011), and the effects will varygreatly in space across Europe (Trnka, Olesen, et al.,2011), but they may also change over time (Trnka,Eitzinger, et al., 2011). It is generally accepted thatproductivity will increase in northern Europe dueto a lengthened growing season and an extensionof the frost-free period (Olesen and Bindi, 2002).In southern Europe, climate change is likely tonegatively affect the productivity of crops andtheir suitability in certain regions primarily dueto extreme heat events and an overall expectedreduction in precipitation and water availability(Iglesias et al., 2010). Year-to-year variability inyields is generally expected to increase throughoutEurope, due to extreme climatic events and otherfactors, including pests and diseases (Ferrise et al.,2011; Kristensen et al., 2011).There is a large variation across the Europeancontinent in climatic conditions, soils, landuse, infrastructure, and political and economicconditions, which greatly influence theresponsiveness to climatic change (Olesen et al.,2011; Trnka, Olesen, et al., 2011). Intensive farmingsystems in western and central Europe generallyhave a low sensitivity to climate change, because agiven change in temperature or rainfall has modestimpact, and because farmers have resources to adaptby changing management (Reidsma et al., 2010).However, there may be considerable difference inadaptive capacity between cropping systems andfarms depending on their specialisation and otherfarm characteristics (Reidsma and Ewert, 2008).Selection of indicatorsThe following indicators were chosen to evaluateselected impacts of climate change on agriculture:• Growing season for agricultural crops: Thisindicator determines the suitability forgrowing agricultural crops as determined bytemperature.• Agrophenology: This indicator traces changes inthe timing of the cycle of agricultural crops.• Water-limited crop productivity: This indicatorconsiders potential changes in crop productivityKey messages: 4.1 Agriculture• An increase in the duration of the thermal growing season has led to northward expansion of areassuitable for several crops.• Changes in crop phenology have been observed, such as advancement of flowering and harvest dates incereals. These changes are expected to continue in many regions, leading to reductions in grain yield.• Recent heat waves and droughts have greatly reduced the yield of some crops. The projected increasein the occurrence of such events would be particularly detrimental for crop production in central andsouthern Europe, where such events will occur more frequently and add to current stresses.• Climate change is projected to improve the suitability for growing crops in northern Europe and toreduce crop productivity in large parts of southern Europe. Projections based on different climatemodels agree on the direction of the change, but with some variation in its magnitude.158Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012