Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe ... - MemoFin.fr
Share Embed Flag
Download ePaper

Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe ... - MemoFin.fr

Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe ... - MemoFin.fr Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe ... - MemoFin.fr

memofin.fr
10.07.2015 Views

Climate impacts on environmental systems3.4.6 Species interactionsRelevanceThe effects of climate change on single species willhave consequences for all levels of biodiversity,ranging from the genetic level to ecosystems(Walther, 2010). These higher-level impactsare of particular importance since biodiversity,besides being realised as a value in its own right,is increasingly acknowledged as providingindispensable ecosystems services for humanwell-being (Díaz et al., 2006). Biodiversity can beregarded as 'our collective life insurance', as notedin the 'EU biodiversity strategy to 2020' (EuropeanCommission, 2011). The importance of wild speciesfor the functioning of ecosystems is manifold andlargely driven by biotic and abiotic interactions. Animproved understanding of how climate changewill affect these interactions in novel communitiesestablished under a novel climate can be utilisedto assess the extinction risk of species of particularconservation concern. It will also enhance ourabilities to assess and mitigate potential negativeeffects on ecosystem functions and services.Despite increasing knowledge about effects ofclimate change on pairwise species interactionsand on complete ecological networks, quantitativeassessments of these effects are still very uncertain.A robust conclusion from existing observational andtheoretical studies is that specialist species are atmuch higher risk from effects on species interactionsthan generalist species (Menéndez et al., 2007;Schweiger et al., 2010).Community changes triggered by climate changecan lead to disruptions or alterations of currentlyexisting species interactions and the generation ofnovel species interactions. Such changes impacton mechanisms such as competition, herbivory,predation, parasitism, pollination and symbiosisby affecting ecological matching among interactingspecies (Berg et al., 2010; Antoninka et al., 2011).These ecological matches can be defined by spatialor temporal synchronicity of occurrence (Parmesan,2006; Schweiger et al., 2008; Hegland et al., 2009;Van der Putten et al., 2010), or by energetic,morphological and behavioural demands (Corbet,2000; Schweiger et al., 2010).Climate change can also affect disturbance regimes,such as wildfires and storms. Forest fires as animportant example of such a disturbance regime arediscussed in Section 4.2.3.Past trendsDirect observations of the effects of recent climatechange on competition are scarce and are generallythought not to have led directly to the extinctionof species in Europe (Davis, 2003). However,independent studies have shown that observedchanges in the distribution and abundance ofPopulus species (a group of trees that are relativelyweak competitors) in the Late Glacial (ca. 13 000–10 000 years ago) and in the 20th century could onlybe explained when the effects of climate change onits competitors were taken into account (Peros et al.,2008; Van Bogaert et al., 2009).Climate change has already lead to temporalmismatches between species that depend on eachother for feeding and for pollination. For example,the egg hatch of the winter moth (Operophterabrumata) has advanced more than the budburst dateof its larval food plant, the pedunculate oak (Quercusrobur), over the past two decades, with potentiallysevere consequences for its fitness (Visser and Both,2005; Parmesan, 2006; van Asch and Visser, 2007;Both et al., 2009). Similarly, over the last 30 years,the occurrence of the honey bee (Apis mellifera) andthe Small White butterfly (Pieris rapae) in relationto the flowering of crucial host plants has changedKey messages: 3.4.6 Species interactions• Climate change is affecting the interaction of species that depend on each other for food or otherreasons. It can disrupt established interactions but also generate novel ones.• Negative effects on single species are often amplified by changes in interactions with other species, inparticular for specialist species.• The impact of species interactions on ecosystems services depends on whether disrupted interactionscan be buffered by system-intrinsic properties or by novel organisms.144 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012

Climate impacts on environmental systemsfrom about 10 days and 5 days later to about 25 daysand 15 days earlier, respectively (Gordo and Sanz,2005). Such temporal mismatches can severelyimpact pollination activities and the seed set ofplants (Kudo et al., 2004). Climate change has alsodisrupted several predator-prey relationships, suchas between insectivorous birds and their insectprey (Visser et al., 2006). In some cases, differentialchanges in phenology can also strengthen existingor create new predator-prey relationships, asobserved by an increased predation pressure of thefat dormouse (Glis glis) on several songbirds in theCzech Republic (Adamík and Král, 2008).Climate change can also generate new interactionsin novel communities (Schweiger et al., 2010). Inextreme cases, this can lead to severely transformedecosystems where new species dominate. Suchchanges are particularly obvious at higher latitudesand altitudes, where growing and reproductiveperiods are prolonged or where previous thermalconstraints are released with climate warming. Forinstance, the range of the pine processionary moth(Thaumetopoea pityocampa) is no longer limited bytemperature in many regions, enabling the species toexpand its existing range into new areas and causingserious damage in pine forests (Robinet et al., 2007).ProjectionsA study on butterflies in Europe showed that mostspecies are not limited by the distribution of theirlarval host plants and thus appear rather insensitiveto spatial mismatching with their hosts under futureclimate change. However, there are exceptionssuch as the Portuguese Dappled White butterfly(Euchloe tagis), which is projected to lose 20–48 % ofits current area based on the loss of suitable climaticconditions by 2080, and 50–74 % when a reducedavailability of host plants was also considered(Schweiger et al., 2012) (Map 3.19). These findingshighlight the need for a better understandingof ecological interactions that mediate speciesresponses to climate change.Map 3.19Projected spatial mismatches of the Portuguese Dappled White butterfly and itshost plants-10°Current 208060°50°40°!!! !!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ! ! ! ! !!!!!!0° 10° 20° 30° 40° 50° 60°70°!!!! !!! ! !! ! !! ! ! !!!!0 5000°1000 1500 10° km20°30°50°40°40°60°50°40°-10°0°10°20°0 5000°1000 1500 10° km30°20°40°50°30°60°70°50°40°40°Projected spatial mismatches of the Portuguese Dappled White butterfly (Euchloe tagis) and its host plantsSuitable climate space for the host plantsSuitable climate space for the butterflySuitable area for both (butterfly and host plant)!Currently observed distributionNot suitableOutside coverageNote:Spatial mismatches of the Portuguese Dappled White butterfly (Euchloe tagis) and its host plants under the BAMBUscenario (climate: A2) for 2050–2080. Green, suitable climate space for the host plants; yellow, suitable climate spacefor the butterfly; orange, suitable area for both butterfly and host plants; open circles, currently observed distribution.BAMBU: Business-As-Might-Be-Usual scenario.Source: Schweiger et al., 2012.Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012145

<strong>Climate</strong> <strong>impacts</strong> on environmental systems<strong>fr</strong>om about 10 days <strong>and</strong> 5 days later to about 25 days<strong>and</strong> 15 days earlier, respectively (Gordo <strong>and</strong> Sanz,2005). Such temporal mismatches can severelyimpact poll<strong>in</strong>ation activities <strong>and</strong> the seed set ofplants (Kudo et al., 2004). <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> has alsodisrupted several predator-prey relationships, suchas between <strong>in</strong>sectivorous birds <strong>and</strong> their <strong>in</strong>sectprey (Visser et al., 2006). In some cases, differential<strong>change</strong>s <strong>in</strong> phenology can also strengthen exist<strong>in</strong>gor create new predator-prey relationships, asobserved by an <strong>in</strong>creased predation pressure of thefat dormouse (Glis glis) on several songbirds <strong>in</strong> theCzech Republic (Adamík <strong>and</strong> Král, 2008).<strong>Climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> can also generate new <strong>in</strong>teractions<strong>in</strong> novel communities (Schweiger et al., 2010). Inextreme cases, this can lead to severely transformedecosystems where new species dom<strong>in</strong>ate. Such<strong>change</strong>s are particularly obvious at higher latitudes<strong>and</strong> altitudes, where grow<strong>in</strong>g <strong>and</strong> reproductiveperiods are prolonged or where previous thermalconstra<strong>in</strong>ts are released with climate warm<strong>in</strong>g. For<strong>in</strong>stance, the range of the p<strong>in</strong>e processionary moth(Thaumetopoea pityocampa) is no longer limited bytemperature <strong>in</strong> many regions, enabl<strong>in</strong>g the species toexp<strong>and</strong> its exist<strong>in</strong>g range <strong>in</strong>to new areas <strong>and</strong> caus<strong>in</strong>gserious damage <strong>in</strong> p<strong>in</strong>e forests (Rob<strong>in</strong>et et al., 2007).ProjectionsA study on butterflies <strong>in</strong> <strong>Europe</strong> showed that mostspecies are not limited by the distribution of theirlarval host plants <strong>and</strong> thus appear rather <strong>in</strong>sensitiveto spatial mismatch<strong>in</strong>g with their hosts under futureclimate <strong>change</strong>. However, there are exceptionssuch as the Portuguese Dappled White butterfly(Euchloe tagis), which is projected to lose 20–48 % ofits current area based on the loss of suitable climaticconditions by 2080, <strong>and</strong> 50–74 % when a reducedavailability of host plants was also considered(Schweiger et al., 2012) (Map 3.19). These f<strong>in</strong>d<strong>in</strong>gshighlight the need for a better underst<strong>and</strong><strong>in</strong>gof ecological <strong>in</strong>teractions that mediate speciesresponses to climate <strong>change</strong>.Map 3.19Projected spatial mismatches of the Portuguese Dappled White butterfly <strong>and</strong> itshost plants-10°Current 208060°50°40°!!! !!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ! ! ! ! !!!!!!0° 10° 20° 30° 40° 50° 60°70°!!!! !!! ! !! ! !! ! ! !!!!0 5000°1000 1500 10° km20°30°50°40°40°60°50°40°-10°0°10°20°0 5000°1000 1500 10° km30°20°40°50°30°60°70°50°40°40°Projected spatial mismatches of the Portuguese Dappled White butterfly (Euchloe tagis) <strong>and</strong> its host plantsSuitable climate space for the host plantsSuitable climate space for the butterflySuitable area for both (butterfly <strong>and</strong> host plant)!Currently observed distributionNot suitableOutside coverageNote:Spatial mismatches of the Portuguese Dappled White butterfly (Euchloe tagis) <strong>and</strong> its host plants under the BAMBUscenario (climate: A2) for 2050–2080. Green, suitable climate space for the host plants; yellow, suitable climate spacefor the butterfly; orange, suitable area for both butterfly <strong>and</strong> host plants; open circles, currently observed distribution.BAMBU: Bus<strong>in</strong>ess-As-Might-Be-Usual scenario.Source: Schweiger et al., 2012.<strong>Climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>, <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>vulnerability</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>Europe</strong> 2012145

logo

products

Resources

Company

Terms of service
Privacy policy
Cookie policy
Cookie settings
Imprint
Change language
Made with love in Switzerland
© 2024 Yumpu.com all rights reserved

Hooray! Your file is uploaded and ready to be published.

Saved successfully!

Ooh no, something went wrong!