Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe ... - MemoFin.fr

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Climate impacts on environmental systemsmore than 50 %. These numbers are reduced to 3 %and 48 %, respectively, for the low-emission SRESB1 scenario. The risk is much lower, and much moresimilar across scenarios, by 2050.A study on the effects of projected climate changeon 181 terrestrial mammals in the Mediterraneanregion projected significant declines in speciesrichness (e.g. 68 % of all mammals) during thiscentury even if movement through fragmentedlandscapes was possible (Maiorano et al., 2011).A study based on bioclimatic envelope modellingfor 120 native terrestrial European mammals undertwo climate scenarios showed that 1 % or 5–9 % ofEuropean mammals risk extinction (Levinsky et al.,2007). Thirty-two to 46 % or 70–78 % may lose morethan 30 % of their current distribution (Map 3.18).Another study simulated phylogenetic diversityfor plants, birds and mammals in an ensemble offorecasts for 2020, 2050 and 2080 (Thuiller et al.,2011). The results show that the tree of life facesa homogenisation across the continent due to areduction in phylogenetic diversity for southernEurope (where immigration from northern Africawas not considered) and gains in high latitudes andaltitudes.In polar regions, projected reductions in sea icewill dramatically reduce habitat for polar bears,seals and other ice-dependent species. In additionto climate change, these top predators will also beaffected by declining fish stocks.Map 3.17Projected changes in the climate niche space of the Small Tortoise shellNote:Future distribution of climate niche space of the Small Tortoise shell (Aglais urticae) under the A2 climate change scenarioand two future years (2020–2050 left, 2060–2080 right). Dark grey areas show space that remains suitable, dark redareas space that is lost and green areas show space that could be gained under full dispersal. Northern parts of Europe areexpected to remain suitable for the Small Tortoiseshell under all scenarios, but large areas of central Europe would becomeunsuitable. The worst case loss is 55 % of its climatic niche by 2080 under no dispersal or 46 % loss under full dispersal.Source: Settele et al., 2008. See also http://pensoftonline.net/biorisk/index.php/journal/issue/current/showT.142 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012
Climate impacts on environmental systemsMap 3.18 Changes in mammalian species richness by 2100-30°B1-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°50°60°70°-30°A2-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°50°60°70°60°60°50°50°50°50°40°40°40°40°0 500 0° 1000 150010°km20°30°40°0 500 0° 1000 150010°km20°30°40°Projected change in mammalian species richness by 2100Outside coverageNo data– 100 to – 80– 80 to – 60– 60 to – 40– 40 to – 20– 20 to 00 to 5050 to 100100 to 150150 to 200< 200Note:Changes under two climate scenarios B1 (left) and A2 (right) in a 10' resolution.Source: Levinsky et al., 2007.Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012143
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EEA Report No 12/2012Climate change
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ContentsContentsAcknowledgements...
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ContentsMap 4.1 Change in the numbe
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ContentsList of boxesBox 1.1 The IP
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AcknowledgementsAblain, Gilles Larn
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AcknowledgementsComments from the E
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Executive summaryThe causes of the
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Technical summaryTable TS.1 Observe
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Technical summaryTable TS.1 Observe
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Technical summaryMountain areasThe
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Technical summaryTable TS.2 Key obs
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IntroductionIt should be noted that
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IntroductionBox 1.1The IPCC Fifth A
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Introduction1. develop and improve
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Introduction1.4.3 Overview of main
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IntroductionThe next generation of
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Introductionimmigration will be low
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Introduction7. projection of a clim
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IntroductionThe term risk is also i
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Changes in the climate system2 Chan
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Changes in the climate systemdammin
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Changes in the climate system2.1.4
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Changes in the climate systemSelect
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Changes in the climate systemPast t
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Changes in the climate systemEurope
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Changes in the climate systemSevera
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Changes in the climate systemMap 2.
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Changes in the climate systemclosel
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Changes in the climate system2.3 Cr
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Changes in the climate systemPast t
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Changes in the climate systemof up
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Changes in the climate systemFigure
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Changes in the climate system2.3.5
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Changes in the climate systemBox 2.
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Climate impacts on environmental sy
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Climate impacts on socio-economic s
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Vulnerability to climate changein f
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Vulnerability to climate change5.3
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Vulnerability to climate changeMap
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Vulnerability to climate changeasse
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Vulnerability to climate change5.3.
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Vulnerability to climate changeBox
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Vulnerability to climate changeMap
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Vulnerability to climate change5.5
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Vulnerability to climate changeFigu
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Vulnerability to climate changeFigu
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Vulnerability to climate changeFina
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Vulnerability to climate changefact
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Indicator and data needsA key polic
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Indicator and data needsWEI and res
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Indicator and data needsDirectorate
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Indicator and data needs6.2.2 Globa
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Abbreviations and acronyms7 Abbrevi
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Abbreviations and acronymsAcronym o
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Abbreviations and acronymsAcronym o
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Abbreviations and acronymsProject a
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Referenceset al. (2010) DEMIFER: De
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ReferencesNovember to 11 December 2
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ReferencesEEA (2011a) Mapping the i
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References19 December 2009. UNFCCC,
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ReferencesIsaksen, K., Sollid, J. L
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Referencesfür Hydrologie und Limno
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Referencescirculation models. Journ
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Referencesin Geophysics 32(4-5), 58
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ReferencesVermeer, M. and Rahmstorf
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ReferencesDevelopment. http://ec.eu
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ReferencesMooij, W. M., Hulsmann, S
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ReferencesAraújo, M. B., Thuiller,
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ReferencesPeninsula (1952-2004). Ec
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ReferencesMenzel, A., Sparks, T. H.
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ReferencesUrban, M. C., Tewksbury,
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ReferencesM., Palosuo, T., Bellamy,
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ReferencesApplied Climatology 74, 4
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Referencesepidemiologic evidence. E
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ReferencesEnvironmental Health Pers
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Referencestemperature. Epidemiology
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ReferencesEEA (2012) Annual Europea
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ReferencesChapter 5:Vulnerability t
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ReferencesSchool. http://www.jbs.ca
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European Environment AgencyClimate
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