Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe ... - MemoFin.fr

Climate impacts on environmental systemsmore than 50 %. These numbers are reduced to 3 %and 48 %, respectively, for the low-emission SRESB1 scenario. The risk is much lower, and much moresimilar across scenarios, by 2050.A study on the effects of projected climate changeon 181 terrestrial mammals in the Mediterraneanregion projected significant declines in speciesrichness (e.g. 68 % of all mammals) during thiscentury even if movement through fragmentedlandscapes was possible (Maiorano et al., 2011).A study based on bioclimatic envelope modellingfor 120 native terrestrial European mammals undertwo climate scenarios showed that 1 % or 5–9 % ofEuropean mammals risk extinction (Levinsky et al.,2007). Thirty-two to 46 % or 70–78 % may lose morethan 30 % of their current distribution (Map 3.18).Another study simulated phylogenetic diversityfor plants, birds and mammals in an ensemble offorecasts for 2020, 2050 and 2080 (Thuiller et al.,2011). The results show that the tree of life facesa homogenisation across the continent due to areduction in phylogenetic diversity for southernEurope (where immigration from northern Africawas not considered) and gains in high latitudes andaltitudes.In polar regions, projected reductions in sea icewill dramatically reduce habitat for polar bears,seals and other ice-dependent species. In additionto climate change, these top predators will also beaffected by declining fish stocks.Map 3.17Projected changes in the climate niche space of the Small Tortoise shellNote:Future distribution of climate niche space of the Small Tortoise shell (Aglais urticae) under the A2 climate change scenarioand two future years (2020–2050 left, 2060–2080 right). Dark grey areas show space that remains suitable, dark redareas space that is lost and green areas show space that could be gained under full dispersal. Northern parts of Europe areexpected to remain suitable for the Small Tortoiseshell under all scenarios, but large areas of central Europe would becomeunsuitable. The worst case loss is 55 % of its climatic niche by 2080 under no dispersal or 46 % loss under full dispersal.Source: Settele et al., 2008. See also http://pensoftonline.net/biorisk/index.php/journal/issue/current/showT.142 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012