Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe ... - MemoFin.fr

Climate impacts on environmental systemsProjectionsThe northward and uphill movement of manyanimal species is projected to continue this century.Threatened endemics with specific demands inecotope or a small distribution range will generallybe at greatest risk, in particular if they face migrationbarriers (Lemoine et al., 2007; Dirnböck et al., 2011).The difficulty of modelling species dispersal is oneof the major uncertainties in projections of changesin species distribution. Dispersal is constrained notonly by a species' ability to move but also by factorssuch as habitat fragmentation and the availabilityand migratory ability of host plants or preyorganisms. It is likely that many species will not beable to track climate change because of dispersalconstraints (Schweiger et al., 2008, 2012).The limited dispersal ability of many reptiles andamphibians, combined with the fragmentation ofhabitats, is very likely to reduce and isolate theranges of many of those species, particularly in theIberian Peninsula and parts of Italy (Araújo et al.,2006; Hickling et al., 2006) (Map 3.16). Similar resultswere found in a comprehensive study that assessedthe future distribution of European butterflies in2050 and 2080 under three different climate changescenarios (Settele et al., 2008). The study shows thatclimate change poses a considerable additional riskto European butterflies (Map 3.17). The risk variesconsiderably under different emissions scenariosand assumptions regarding dispersal ability. Underthe high-emission SRES A1FI scenario, 24 % of themodelled butterfly species lose more than 95 % oftheir present climatic niche by 2080 and 78 % loseMap 3.16Projected impact of climate change on the potential distribution of reptiles andamphibians in 2050Note:Projected data based on the Generalised Linear Model map using the HadCM3 A2 scenario for 2020–2050 are compared withthe current situation.Source: Data based on Araújo et al., 2006.Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012141