Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe ... - MemoFin.fr

Climate impacts on environmental systemsMap 3.11 Trends in spring phenology in Europe (1971–2000)-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°50°60°70°Trends in springphenology in Europe(1971–2000)Spring phenological trend(days per year)60°– 1.00 to – 0.75– 0.74 to – 0.50– 0.49 to – 0.2550°– 0.24 to 0.000.01 to 0.250.26 to 0.500.51 to 0.7550°0.76 to 1.00Outside coverage40°40°0 500 0° 1000 150010°km20°30°40°Note:Each dot represents a station. Dot size adjusted for clarity. A negative phenological trend corresponds to an earlier onset ofspring.Source: Estrella et al., 2009.ProjectionsPhenology is primarily seen as an indicator toobserve the impacts of climate change on ecosystemsand their constituent species. Most projections ofclimate change impacts focus on other ecosystemprocesses, functions and services of more directrelevance for humans. However, an extrapolationof the observed relationship between temperatureand phenological events into the future can providea first estimate of future changes in phenology.Obviously, there are limits to possible changesin phenology, beyond which ecosystems have toadapt by changes in species composition. One ofthe few projections is for olives (Olea europaea) inthe western Mediterranean, where an advancementof flowering by 3–23 days in 2030 compared to1990 was projected (Osborne et al., 2000). For sixdominant European tree species, (Vitasse et al., 2011)showed that flushing is expected to advance in thenext decades but this trend substantially differedbetween species (from 0 to 2.4 days per decade). Themore difficult prediction of leaf senescence for twodeciduous species is expected to be delayed in thefuture (from 1.4 to 2.3 days per decade). The authorsconclude that earlier spring leafing and later autumnsenescence are likely to affect the competitivebalance between species.132 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012