Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe ... - MemoFin.fr

Climate impacts on environmental systemsUltimately, this is likely to change ecosystemproperties and functions. Traditionally, impacts areassessed differently for plant and animal species.We therefore decided to cover the followingindicators:• Plant and fungi phenology;• Animal phenology;• Distribution of plant species;• Distribution and abundance of animal species;• Species interactions.Changes in plant, fungi and animal phenologyhave shown to be good indicators for climate changeimpacts (Gordo and Sanz, 2006a; Estrella et al.,2009), yet also other pressures (such as nitrogeninput) may impact phenology (Cleland et al., 2006).Directly or indirectly, climate change can affectspecies populations in a number of ways, includingspecies distribution changes (e.g. due to habitatloss) and range changes (contraction and expansion,relating to their dispersal ability). Under a newclimatic regime, therefore, individuals of somespecies may be able to colonise new, more suitableareas. Such species will frequently include alienspecies, that is those which have been introducedby human agency to regions outside their naturalrange. Alien species are also being introduced as aresult of climate change — for example birds andinvertebrates from mainland Europe now beingfound in southern England and moving north. Alieninvasive species have been recognised as one of themost important threats to biodiversity at the globallevel. They have significant adverse impacts on thegoods and services provided by ecosystems, oneconomy and human health (Millennium EcosystemAssessment, 2005; Vilà et al., 2010, 2011). Thecombination of the two pressures of climate changeand biological invasions poses new challenges toconservation policies (Burgiel and Muir, 2010),especially as links between them are largelyignored. Climate change can also affect ecologicaldynamics, the complex species interactions andtheir ecosystem relationships. Changing climaticconditions can lead to mismatching of species'life-cycle events and food sources or decoupledpredator-prey relationships, for example throughinfluences on the activity of predators or on trophicinteractions between species such as the associationbetween the timing of budburst (food supply),emergence of insect larvae and the egg laying dateof birds.The EC Habitats Directive calls for the regularassessment and reporting of the conservation statusof the 1 500 species and the habitats of specialEuropean interest listed in the Directive's AnnexesI, II, IV and V ( 51 ). During the reporting period2001–2006, Member States collected a diverse range ofdata and provided expert opinion. Data availabilityand quality is rather heterogeneous during thisreporting period ( 52 ). The reports contain informationon the conservation status of species and habitats.They also give an indication whether climate changeis considered as an important driver of change inconservation status. The first national reports suggestthat 19 % of habitats and 12 % of species of Europeaninterest are potentially threatened by climate changeover their natural European range (Table 3.2).Bogs, mires and fens are considered to be the mostvulnerable habitat types, with up to 50 % potentiallynegatively affected. This is particularly worryingbecause bogs and mires are important carbonstores and their degradation releases GHGs intothe atmosphere. Of the species groups, amphibiansare worst affected, with 45 % of species negativelyafflicted by climate in Europe (Araújo et al., 2006).The Natura2000 network in Europe is the mostextensive network of conservation areas worldwide.The principle objective of the EC Habitat Directive(i.e. maintaining certain species and habitats) isstatic and does not recognise dynamic influencesof environmental changes like climate change.An assessment of the effectiveness of conservingEuropean plant and terrestrial vertebrate speciesunder climate change estimates that by 2080,58 ± 2.6 % of the species would lose suitable climateniches in protected areas. In Natura2000 areas,the losses were even higher, at 63 ± 2.1 % (Araújoet al., 2011).Data quality and gapsGenerally, observations for popular groups such asvascular plants, birds, other terrestrial vertebrates andbutterflies are much better than for less conspicuousand less popular species. Similarly, due to extensiveexisting networks, a long tradition and better meansof detection and rapid responses of the organismsto changes, knowledge on phenological changesare better observed and recorded than range shifts.Projections of climate change impacts on phenologyrely crucially on the understanding of current( 51 ) In 2007, Member States reported for the first time on the conservation status of habitats and species covered by the HabitatsDirective (Article 17 reports). As this reporting period was until 2006, it did not cover Bulgaria and Romania.( 52 ) For a more detailed discussion, see http://bd.eionet.europa.eu/article17/chapter2 and http://eea.eionet.europa.eu/Public/irc/eionet-circle/habitatsart17report/library?l=/papers_technical/completeness_coherence_1/_EN_1.0_&a=d.Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012129