Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe ... - MemoFin.fr

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Climate impacts on environmental systemsperiod and three future time periods based on thehydrological model LISFLOOD and an ensemble of12 climate models. Blue rivers indicate an increasein flood level and red rivers a decrease. While theensemble mean presented in Map 3.8 provides thebest assessment of all model simulations together,individual simulations can show importantdifferences from the ensemble mean for individualcatchments, partly due to significant decadal-scaleinternal variability in the simulated climate (Feyenet al., 2011). A decrease in 1-in-a-century floods isprojected in large parts of north-eastern Europe dueto a reduction in snow accumulation and hence meltassociatedfloods under milder winter temperatures(Dankers and Feyen, 2009). This projection isconsistent with other studies on snow-dominatedregions, including parts of Finland (Veijalainen et al.,2010), the Alps and Carpathian Mountains (EEA,2009b). Flash floods and pluvial floods, which aretriggered by local intense precipitation events, arelikely to become more frequent throughout Europe(Christensen and Christensen, 2002; Kundzewiczet al., 2006).3.3.4 River flow droughtRelevanceLack of water has severe consequences for Europe'scitizens and most economic sectors, includingagriculture, energy production and industry. Anintense drought throughout the Iberian Peninsuladuring 2004–2005, for example, led to a 40 %decline in cereal production (García-Herrera et al.,2007), whilst low rainfall in 2006 led to a 30 %fall in agricultural production in Lithuania, withan estimated loss of EUR 200 million (EuropeanCommission, 2007). In Slovenia, direct lossesattributable to drought in 2003 are estimated to bearound EUR 100 million (Sušnik and Kurnik, 2005).Furthermore, lack of water detrimentally impactsfreshwater ecosystems including vegetation, fish,invertebrates and riparian bird life (EEA, 2009a).Diminished flow also strongly impacts water qualityby reducing the ability of a river to dilute pollutants.Electricity production has already been significantlyreduced in various locations in Europe during verywarm summers due to limitations of cooling watersupply from rivers. Dry periods can also seriouslyimpact the production of hydropower (Lehner et al.,2005), for example in the case of Catalunia where the2003–2007 drought caused a hydropower reductionof over 40 % (Generalitat de Catalunya, 2010).Past trendsOver the past 40 years, Europe has been affected bya number of major droughts, most notably in 1976,1989, 1991, and more recently (see Map 3.9), theprolonged drought over large parts of the continentassociated with the 2003 summer heat wave andthe 2005 drought in the Iberian Peninsula (see alsoeffects on Energy production in Section 4.5).However, there is no evidence that river flowdroughts have become more severe or frequent overEurope in general in recent decades (Hisdal et al.,2001; Stahl et al., 2008), nor is there conclusive proofof a general increase in summer dryness (based onthe Palmer Drought Severity Index) in Europe overthe past 50 years due to reduced summer moistureavailability (van der Schrier et al., 2006). Severalstations in Europe have shown trends towards lesssevere low stream flows over the 20th century butthis is primarily attributed to an increasing numberof reservoirs becoming operational during thisperiod (Svensson et al., 2005).Whilst public water supplies often have priorityover other uses during droughts, restrictionson use can arise, together with a significant costassociated with emergency water supplies. In2008, Cyprus suffered its fourth consecutive yearof low rainfall and the drought situation reacheda critical level in the summer months. To ease thecrisis, water was shipped in from Greece usingKey messages: 3.3.4 River flow drought• Europe has been affected by several major droughts in recent decades, such as the catastrophicdrought associated with the 2003 summer heat wave in central parts of the continent and the 2005drought in the Iberian Peninsula.• Severity and frequency of droughts appear to have increased in parts of Europe, in particular insouthern Europe.• Regions most prone to an increase in drought hazard are southern and south-eastern Europe, butminimum river flows are also projected to decrease significantly in many other parts of the continent,especially in summer.120 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012
Climate impacts on environmental systemsMap 3.9Water scarcity and drought events in Europe during the last decade-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°50°60°70°Water scarcity anddrought events inEurope during thelast decade60°200250°201150°201220032005201140°20022012200220020 500 1000 1500 km2007–200840°Source: ETC-LUSI; Tallaksen, 2007 (personal communication).tankers. In addition, the Cypriot Government wasforced to apply emergency measures, including thecutting of domestic supplies by 30 %. Similarly, inCatalonia during the spring of 2008 water levelsin the reservoirs supplying 5.8 million inhabitantswere only at 20 % of capacity. The governmentplanned to ship fresh water in, at an estimatedcost of EUR 35 million. After a few shiploads weretransported to Barcelona, these transports werestopped because strong rainfall was filling thereservoirs again (Collins, 2009).ProjectionsRiver flow droughts are projected to increase infrequency and severity in southern and southeasternEurope, Benelux, France, western parts ofGermany and the United Kingdom over the comingdecades (Rojas et al., 2012) (see Map 3.10). For thenear future (2020s, Map 3.10a), the differences to thecontrol period 1961–1990 are rather limited althoughthe general pattern of an increase of minimumflows in Scandinavia and a decrease in southernand south-eastern Europe can already be seen. ForScandinavia and north-eastern Europe the projectedminimum flows with a return period of 20 yearsfurther increase while almost everywhere else inEurope a moderate to strong decrease is projected.In most of Europe, the projected decrease in summerprecipitation accompanied by rising temperaturesis projected to lead to more frequent and intensesummer droughts (Douville et al., 2002; Lehneret al., 2006; Feyen and Dankers, 2009).This projecteddecline in the water resource will be reflected notonly by reduced river flows, but also by loweredlake and groundwater levels and a drying up ofwetlands.Climate change will affect not only water supplybut also water demand. Water demand forirrigation is projected to increase in many regions(see Section 4.1.5), which may further decrease riverflow. Initial research suggests that climate changemay also have some effect on household waterdemand (Keirle and Hayes, 2007).Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012121
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EEA Report No 12/2012Climate change
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ContentsContentsAcknowledgements...
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ContentsMap 4.1 Change in the numbe
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ContentsList of boxesBox 1.1 The IP
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AcknowledgementsAblain, Gilles Larn
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AcknowledgementsComments from the E
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Executive summaryThe causes of the
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Technical summaryTable TS.1 Observe
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Technical summaryTable TS.1 Observe
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Technical summaryMountain areasThe
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Technical summaryTable TS.2 Key obs
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IntroductionIt should be noted that
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IntroductionBox 1.1The IPCC Fifth A
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Introduction1. develop and improve
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Introduction1.4.3 Overview of main
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IntroductionThe next generation of
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Introductionimmigration will be low
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Introduction7. projection of a clim
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IntroductionThe term risk is also i
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Changes in the climate system2 Chan
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Changes in the climate systemdammin
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Changes in the climate system2.1.4
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Changes in the climate systemSelect
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Changes in the climate systemPast t
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Changes in the climate systemEurope
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Changes in the climate systemSevera
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Changes in the climate systemMap 2.
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Climate impacts on socio-economic s
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Vulnerability to climate changein f
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Vulnerability to climate change5.3
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Vulnerability to climate changeMap
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Vulnerability to climate changeasse
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Vulnerability to climate change5.3.
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Vulnerability to climate changeBox
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Vulnerability to climate changeMap
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Vulnerability to climate change5.5
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Vulnerability to climate changeFigu
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Vulnerability to climate changeFigu
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Vulnerability to climate changeFina
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Vulnerability to climate changefact
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Indicator and data needsA key polic
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Indicator and data needsWEI and res
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Indicator and data needsDirectorate
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Indicator and data needs6.2.2 Globa
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Abbreviations and acronyms7 Abbrevi
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Abbreviations and acronymsAcronym o
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Abbreviations and acronymsAcronym o
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Abbreviations and acronymsProject a
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Referenceset al. (2010) DEMIFER: De
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ReferencesNovember to 11 December 2
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ReferencesEEA (2011a) Mapping the i
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References19 December 2009. UNFCCC,
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ReferencesIsaksen, K., Sollid, J. L
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Referencesfür Hydrologie und Limno
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Referencescirculation models. Journ
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Referencesin Geophysics 32(4-5), 58
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ReferencesVermeer, M. and Rahmstorf
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ReferencesDevelopment. http://ec.eu
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ReferencesMooij, W. M., Hulsmann, S
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ReferencesAraújo, M. B., Thuiller,
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ReferencesPeninsula (1952-2004). Ec
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ReferencesMenzel, A., Sparks, T. H.
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ReferencesUrban, M. C., Tewksbury,
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ReferencesM., Palosuo, T., Bellamy,
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ReferencesApplied Climatology 74, 4
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Referencesepidemiologic evidence. E
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ReferencesEnvironmental Health Pers
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Referencestemperature. Epidemiology
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ReferencesEEA (2012) Annual Europea
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ReferencesChapter 5:Vulnerability t
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ReferencesSchool. http://www.jbs.ca
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European Environment AgencyClimate
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