Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe ... - MemoFin.fr

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ContentsMap 4.1 Change in the number of frost-free days per year during the period 1975–2010.... 161Map 4.2 Change of flowering date for winter wheat (1975–2010).................................. 163Map 4.3 Projected change in dates of flowering and maturation for winter wheat............. 164Map 4.4 Projected changes in effective solar radiation from two climate models............... 166Map 4.5 Projected changes in water-limited crop yield................................................. 167Map 4.6Simulated change in water-limited wheat production for 2030 based ontwo climate models..................................................................................... 168Map 4.7 Rate of change of the meteorological water balance (1975–2010)..................... 170Map 4.8Projected change in water availability for irrigation in the Mediterraneanregion by 2071–2100.................................................................................. 171Map 4.9 State and trend of fire danger for the period 1981–2010.................................. 179Map 4.10 Projected changes in fire danger................................................................... 180Map 4.11 Number of people affected by flooding per million population in theWHO European Region (annual average 2000–2011)....................................... 189Map 4.12 Modelled change in tropospheric ozone concentrations over Europe,1958–2001 and 1978–2001......................................................................... 193Map 4.13 European distribution of Borrelia burgdorferi in questing I. ricinus ticks.............. 196Map 4.14 Change in distribution of Aedes albopictus in Europe between 2008 and 2011..... 197Map 4.15 Climatic suitability for the mosquitos Aedes albopictus and Aedes aegyptiin Europe................................................................................................... 198Map 4.16 Trend in heating degree days in the EU-27 (1980–2009).................................. 203Map 4.17 Projected changes in the tourism climatic index for all seasons......................... 211Map 5.1Estimated number of people and gross value affected by 100-yearflood events in the 'Economy First' scenario for the 2050s................................ 214Map 5.2 Annual water stress for present conditions and projections for two scenarios...... 215Map 5.3 Potential physical, social and cultural impact of climate change......................... 218Map 5.4 Potential environmental and economic impact of climate change....................... 219Map 5.5 Potential aggregate impact, adaptive capacity and vulnerability......................... 221Map 5.6 Elderly population in cities............................................................................ 225Map 5.7 Factors determining vulnerability to heat waves.............................................. 226Map 5.8 Factors determining vulnerability to urban flooding.......................................... 2278 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012
ContentsList of tablesTable TS.1 Observed and projected climate change and impacts on environmentaland socio‐economic systems and human health................................................19Table TS.2 Key observed (O) and projected (P) climate change and impacts forthe main regions in Europe............................................................................28Table 1.1 Type of indicator and main purpose.................................................................35Table 1.2 Changes in indicators 2008–2012....................................................................36Table 1.3 Emissions scenarios and climate models used in projections...............................39Table 3.1 Contributions to the sea-level budget since 1972............................................106Table 3.2 Habitats and species groups negatively affected by climate change inat least one EU Member State.......................................................................130Table 4.1 Impacts and consequences of climate change on forest growthand forest conditions...................................................................................175Table 4.2 Number of people killed due to extreme weather events and wildfireby European region (1980–2011)..................................................................186Table 4.3 Selection of meteorological parameters that might increase underfuture climate change and their impact on ozone levels....................................194Table 4.4 Overview of studies on future electricity demand due to climate change.............204Table 4.5 Overview of climate change impacts on transport infrastructure........................206Table 5.1 Coverage of European-wide damage cost studies by sector ..............................233Table 6.1 Essential Climate Variables that are both currently feasiblefor global implementation and have a high impact on UNFCCC requirements.......243Table 6.2 Essential Climate Variables for which satellite observations makea significant contribution..............................................................................243Table 7.1 Abbreviations and acronyms (except research projects)...................................246Table 7.2 Acronyms of research projects......................................................................251Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 20129
Page 3 and 4: EEA Report No 12/2012Climate change
Page 5: ContentsContentsAcknowledgements...
Page 12 and 13: ContentsList of boxesBox 1.1 The IP
Page 14 and 15: AcknowledgementsAblain, Gilles Larn
Page 16: AcknowledgementsComments from the E
Page 20: Executive summaryThe causes of the
Page 23: Technical summaryTable TS.1 Observe
Page 26 and 27: Technical summaryTable TS.1 Observe
Page 28 and 29: Technical summaryMountain areasThe
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Page 33 and 34: IntroductionIt should be noted that
Page 35 and 36: IntroductionBox 1.1The IPCC Fifth A
Page 37 and 38: Introduction1. develop and improve
Page 39 and 40: Introduction1.4.3 Overview of main
Page 41 and 42: IntroductionThe next generation of
Page 44 and 45: Introductionimmigration will be low
Page 46 and 47: Introduction7. projection of a clim
Page 49 and 50: IntroductionThe term risk is also i
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Changes in the climate systemEurope
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Changes in the climate systemSevera
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Climate impacts on environmental sy
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Vulnerability to climate changein f
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Vulnerability to climate change5.3
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Vulnerability to climate changeMap
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Vulnerability to climate changeasse
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Vulnerability to climate change5.3.
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Vulnerability to climate changeBox
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Vulnerability to climate changeMap
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Vulnerability to climate change5.5
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Vulnerability to climate changeFigu
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Vulnerability to climate changeFigu
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Vulnerability to climate changeFina
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Vulnerability to climate changefact
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Indicator and data needsA key polic
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Indicator and data needsWEI and res
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Indicator and data needsDirectorate
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Indicator and data needs6.2.2 Globa
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Abbreviations and acronyms7 Abbrevi
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Abbreviations and acronymsAcronym o
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Abbreviations and acronymsAcronym o
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Abbreviations and acronymsProject a
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Referenceset al. (2010) DEMIFER: De
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ReferencesNovember to 11 December 2
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ReferencesEEA (2011a) Mapping the i
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References19 December 2009. UNFCCC,
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ReferencesIsaksen, K., Sollid, J. L
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Referencesfür Hydrologie und Limno
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Referencescirculation models. Journ
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Referencesin Geophysics 32(4-5), 58
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ReferencesVermeer, M. and Rahmstorf
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ReferencesDevelopment. http://ec.eu
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ReferencesMooij, W. M., Hulsmann, S
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ReferencesAraújo, M. B., Thuiller,
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ReferencesPeninsula (1952-2004). Ec
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ReferencesMenzel, A., Sparks, T. H.
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ReferencesUrban, M. C., Tewksbury,
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ReferencesM., Palosuo, T., Bellamy,
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ReferencesApplied Climatology 74, 4
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Referencesepidemiologic evidence. E
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ReferencesEnvironmental Health Pers
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Referencestemperature. Epidemiology
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ReferencesEEA (2012) Annual Europea
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ReferencesChapter 5:Vulnerability t
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ReferencesSchool. http://www.jbs.ca
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European Environment AgencyClimate
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