Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe ... - MemoFin.fr

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Climate impacts on environmental systemsFigure 3.4Decapoda larvae abundance and phenology in the central North SeaYear200920041999199419891984197919741969Mean number of decapods per sample1110.5109.598.587.576.565.554.543.532.521.510.50Month of peak abundance1098765196441950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 202019592 4 6 8 10 12MonthDecapoda larvae phenologyNote: Left: Decapoda larvae abundance in the central North Sea 1958–2009.Right: Phenology shown as average month of peak decapoda abundance (number of individuals) in the central North Sea1958–2009.Source: Sir Alister Hardy Foundation for Ocean Science (SAHFOS).ProjectionsProjections of the phenological responses ofindividual species under climate change have notyet been made, but the empirical evidence suggeststhat phenological changes will continue as climatewarming continues. It is currently uncertain asto whether genetic adaptations within speciespopulations can cope with these changes, at leastpartly, or whether the pace of climate change istoo fast for genetic adaptations to take place. Thisuncertainty is further compounded by the differencein phenological responses between species andfunctional groups. If current patterns and ratesof phenological change are indicative of futuretrends, future climate warming may exacerbatetrophic mismatching. This could further disruptthe functioning, persistence and resilience of manyecosystems, potentially having a major impact onecosystem services.98 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012
Climate impacts on environmental systems3.1.6 Distribution of marine speciesRelevanceChanges in the distribution of organisms are one ofthe key indicators of marine climate change impacts.Distribution maps from the North-east Atlantic areused as one part of this indicator to demonstratelarge-scale changes at the decadal scale. The secondpart of this indicator describes the ratio betweena warm-water species (Calanus helgolandicus) anda cold-water species (Calanus finmarchicus) in theNorth Sea on an annual basis (see Figure 3.5). In theeastern Mediterranean Sea, the introduction of warmand tropical alien species from the Red Sea hasbeen exacerbated by observed warming, leading toa 150 % increase in the annual mean rate of speciesentry after 1998 (Raitsos et al., 2010).Changes in marine plankton can trigger furthereffects on marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Forexample, increases in the surface temperature ofthe North Sea in recent decades have triggeredestablishment of warm-water swimming crabs,which in turn allowed establishment of colonies oflesser black-backed gulls in Belgium and northernFrance, with expected follow-on impacts onterrestrial ecosystems through their fertilisation ofterrestrial soils (Luczak et al., 2012).Past trendsIncreases in regional sea temperatures havetriggered a major northward movement ofwarmer‐water plankton in the North-east Atlanticand a similar retreat of colder-water planktonto the north. This northerly movement is about10 ° latitude (1 100 km) over the past 40 years (amean poleward movement of between 200 and250 km per decade), and there appears to havebeen an acceleration since 2000 (Beaugrand, 2009).Recently, a Norwegian study showed even fasterrates of northward movement between 1997 and2010. Out of about 1 600 benthic marine speciesfound in coastal waters of southern Norway, 565species had expanded their distribution northwardsalong the coast, at rates of 500–800 km per decade(Brattegard, 2011). These rates are much faster thanany other documented terrestrial study.ProjectionsFurther changes in the distribution of marine speciesare expected, with projected further climate change,but quantitative projections are not available.Key messages: 3.1.6 Distribution of marine species• Increases in regional sea temperatures have triggered a major northward expansion of warmer-waterplankton in the North-east Atlantic and a northward retreat of colder-water plankton. This northerlymovement is about 10 ° latitude (1 100 km) over the past 40 years, and it seems to have acceleratedsince 2000.• Sub-tropical species are occurring with increasing frequency in European waters, and sub-Arctic speciesare receding northwards.• Further changes in the distribution of marine species are expected, with projected further climatechange, but quantitative projections are not available.Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 201299
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EEA Report No 12/2012Climate change
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ContentsContentsAcknowledgements...
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ContentsMap 4.1 Change in the numbe
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ContentsList of boxesBox 1.1 The IP
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AcknowledgementsAblain, Gilles Larn
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AcknowledgementsComments from the E
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Executive summaryThe causes of the
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Technical summaryTable TS.1 Observe
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Technical summaryTable TS.1 Observe
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Technical summaryMountain areasThe
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Technical summaryTable TS.2 Key obs
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IntroductionIt should be noted that
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IntroductionBox 1.1The IPCC Fifth A
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Introduction1. develop and improve
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Introduction1.4.3 Overview of main
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IntroductionThe next generation of
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Introductionimmigration will be low
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Introduction7. projection of a clim
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Vulnerability to climate changein f
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Vulnerability to climate change5.3
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Vulnerability to climate changeMap
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Vulnerability to climate changeasse
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Vulnerability to climate change5.3.
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Vulnerability to climate changeBox
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Vulnerability to climate changeMap
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Vulnerability to climate change5.5
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Vulnerability to climate changeFigu
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Vulnerability to climate changeFigu
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Vulnerability to climate changeFina
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Vulnerability to climate changefact
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Indicator and data needsA key polic
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Indicator and data needsWEI and res
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Indicator and data needsDirectorate
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Indicator and data needs6.2.2 Globa
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Abbreviations and acronyms7 Abbrevi
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Abbreviations and acronymsAcronym o
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Abbreviations and acronymsAcronym o
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Abbreviations and acronymsProject a
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Referenceset al. (2010) DEMIFER: De
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ReferencesNovember to 11 December 2
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ReferencesEEA (2011a) Mapping the i
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References19 December 2009. UNFCCC,
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ReferencesIsaksen, K., Sollid, J. L
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Referencesfür Hydrologie und Limno
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Referencescirculation models. Journ
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Referencesin Geophysics 32(4-5), 58
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ReferencesVermeer, M. and Rahmstorf
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ReferencesDevelopment. http://ec.eu
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ReferencesMooij, W. M., Hulsmann, S
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ReferencesAraújo, M. B., Thuiller,
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ReferencesPeninsula (1952-2004). Ec
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ReferencesMenzel, A., Sparks, T. H.
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ReferencesUrban, M. C., Tewksbury,
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ReferencesM., Palosuo, T., Bellamy,
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ReferencesApplied Climatology 74, 4
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Referencesepidemiologic evidence. E
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ReferencesEnvironmental Health Pers
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Referencestemperature. Epidemiology
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ReferencesEEA (2012) Annual Europea
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ReferencesChapter 5:Vulnerability t
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ReferencesSchool. http://www.jbs.ca
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European Environment AgencyClimate
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