Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe ... - MemoFin.fr

ContentsMap 4.1 Change in the number of frost-free days per year during the period 1975–2010.... 161Map 4.2 Change of flowering date for winter wheat (1975–2010).................................. 163Map 4.3 Projected change in dates of flowering and maturation for winter wheat............. 164Map 4.4 Projected changes in effective solar radiation from two climate models............... 166Map 4.5 Projected changes in water-limited crop yield................................................. 167Map 4.6Simulated change in water-limited wheat production for 2030 based ontwo climate models..................................................................................... 168Map 4.7 Rate of change of the meteorological water balance (1975–2010)..................... 170Map 4.8Projected change in water availability for irrigation in the Mediterraneanregion by 2071–2100.................................................................................. 171Map 4.9 State and trend of fire danger for the period 1981–2010.................................. 179Map 4.10 Projected changes in fire danger................................................................... 180Map 4.11 Number of people affected by flooding per million population in theWHO European Region (annual average 2000–2011)....................................... 189Map 4.12 Modelled change in tropospheric ozone concentrations over Europe,1958–2001 and 1978–2001......................................................................... 193Map 4.13 European distribution of Borrelia burgdorferi in questing I. ricinus ticks.............. 196Map 4.14 Change in distribution of Aedes albopictus in Europe between 2008 and 2011..... 197Map 4.15 Climatic suitability for the mosquitos Aedes albopictus and Aedes aegyptiin Europe................................................................................................... 198Map 4.16 Trend in heating degree days in the EU-27 (1980–2009).................................. 203Map 4.17 Projected changes in the tourism climatic index for all seasons......................... 211Map 5.1Estimated number of people and gross value affected by 100-yearflood events in the 'Economy First' scenario for the 2050s................................ 214Map 5.2 Annual water stress for present conditions and projections for two scenarios...... 215Map 5.3 Potential physical, social and cultural impact of climate change......................... 218Map 5.4 Potential environmental and economic impact of climate change....................... 219Map 5.5 Potential aggregate impact, adaptive capacity and vulnerability......................... 221Map 5.6 Elderly population in cities............................................................................ 225Map 5.7 Factors determining vulnerability to heat waves.............................................. 226Map 5.8 Factors determining vulnerability to urban flooding.......................................... 2278 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012