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Download - Transcrime - Università degli Studi di Trento

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11. A map of the phenomenon in Italy: procee<strong>di</strong>ngs brought by prosecutor’s offices between June 1996 and June 200111.2.4 An estimation of smuggling victimsIt has been already explained (§ 10.1.4) that quantification of the real number oftrafficking victims of trafficking is crucial, and that the monitoring of ju<strong>di</strong>cialactivity in order to obtain realistic estimates is of equal importance. The sameconsiderations apply to smuggling. Official statistics on the number of victims inju<strong>di</strong>cial procee<strong>di</strong>ngs is an important basis for estimation of the real figure. It thensuffices to calculate, with the help of experts or using the results of victimizationsurveys, the ratio between the victims who contact the ju<strong>di</strong>cial authorities and thosewho do not (i.e. the hidden number of the victims). If this ratio is defined withprecision, 253 reliable estimations can be obtained.The data reported in section 10.2.3 can therefore be used to attempt an estimationof the real number of smuggling victims in Italy between June 1996 and June 2001.As in the case of trafficking, so in that of smuggling one must first define the ratiobetween the victims reported by the monitoring of smuggling offences and the realnumber of the victims.In the case of trafficking, given the reasons for the criterion adopted, a ratio ofbetween 1/10 and 1/20 was used. In the case of smuggling, defining this ratiorequired account to be taken the considerations set out at the beginning of §10.2.3: 1) it is likely that smuggling victims have fewer contacts with the ju<strong>di</strong>cialauthorities than do trafficking victims; 2) the total number of victims reported bythis monitoring study may be underestimated.Accor<strong>di</strong>ngly, it seemed reasonable to set the ratio between the numbers ofsmuggling victims reported by this monitoring study and the real number at 1/20-1/40.Table 9 shows the results of this estimation. Accor<strong>di</strong>ng to the criterion suggested,the real victims of migrant smuggling in Italy between June 1996 and June 2001amounted to a minimum of 85,240 and a maximum of 170,480.253 On this point see <strong>Transcrime</strong>, op. cit.152

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